Carlos Colmenarez
SS Bowling Green Hot Rods| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/INTL2 orgs | 506 | .220/.347/.312 | 7 | 16 | 59 | — | .151/.257/.189 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/ROKTB | 307 | .219/.341/.336 | 7 | 3 | 43 | — | .169/.262/.261 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 256 | .252/.360/.467 | 12 | 10 | 82 | — | .200/.282/.351 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBTB | 1 | .170/.251/.292 | 0 | 0 | 54 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBTB | 77 | .176/.257/.302 | 2 | 2 | 59 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBTB | 135 | .180/.261/.310 | 4 | 3 | 62 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | — | 114 | 97 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 247 | 327 | 289 | 616 | 41 | 338 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 153 | 126 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 41 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 254 | 382 | 381 | 763 | 127 | 365 | 27 | 11 | 349 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 346 | 283 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 52 | 132 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 201 | 345 | 304 | 649 | 102 | 349 | 38 | 15 | 307 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 417 | 429 | 845 | 95 | 467 | 25 | 12 | 383 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 368 | 297 | 60 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 54 | 108 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 202 | 340 | 256 | 596 | 54 | 306 | 29 | 15 | 284 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 138 | 117 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 365 | 453 | 818 | 188 | 391 | 35 | 12 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 280 | 231 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 94 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 208 | 338 | 320 | 658 | 113 | 321 | 34 | 14 | 307 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 27 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 320 | 370 | 480 | 850 | 160 | 438 | 30 | 4 | 379 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 86 | 75 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 347 | 656 | 120 | 441 | 45 | 9 | 293 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 141 | 117 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 42 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 374 | 504 | 878 | 248 | 328 | 30 | 11 | 383 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 29 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 318 | 444 | 682 | 1.126 | 364 | 333 | 21 | 17 | 446 | 188 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 114 | 101 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 158 | 227 | 188 | 415 | 30 | 215 | 32 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 153 | 132 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 182 | 289 | 273 | 562 | 91 | 303 | 39 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 346 | 299 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 182 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 130 | 246 | 197 | 444 | 67 | 299 | 53 | 10 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 273 | 564 | 45 | 367 | 38 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 368 | 317 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 149 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 151 | 257 | 189 | 446 | 38 | 268 | 40 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 280 | 246 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 120 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 163 | 259 | 248 | 507 | 85 | 281 | 43 | 9 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 400 | 696 | 160 | 336 | 44 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 86 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 247 | 497 | 65 | 415 | 55 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 141 | 123 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 302 | 415 | 717 | 203 | 288 | 39 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 114 | 101 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 158 | 227 | 188 | 415 | 30 | 235 | 32 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays 1 | — | 114 | 97 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 247 | 327 | 289 | 616 | 41 | 338 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 153 | 132 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 182 | 289 | 273 | 562 | 91 | 315 | 39 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 153 | 126 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 41 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 254 | 382 | 381 | 763 | 127 | 365 | 27 | 11 | 349 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 370 | 321 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 191 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 137 | 249 | 202 | 452 | 65 | 315 | 52 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 370 | 304 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 138 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 211 | 350 | 312 | 662 | 102 | 360 | 37 | 15 | 312 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 438 | 67 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 205 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 153 | 257 | 192 | 448 | 39 | 277 | 41 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 414 | 91 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 71 | 156 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 220 | 347 | 312 | 658 | 92 | 327 | 31 | 14 | 305 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 272 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 132 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 169 | 259 | 261 | 520 | 92 | 299 | 43 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 307 | 256 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 102 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 219 | 341 | 336 | 677 | 117 | 333 | 33 | 13 | 313 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 256 | 225 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 115 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 280 | 351 | 631 | 151 | 353 | 45 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 256 | 214 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 87 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 252 | 360 | 467 | 827 | 215 | 362 | 34 | 11 | 360 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 114 | 104 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 154 | 227 | 183 | 410 | 29 | 215 | 32 | 4 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 153 | 132 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 182 | 289 | 273 | 562 | 91 | 303 | 39 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 370 | 319 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 191 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 138 | 249 | 204 | 453 | 66 | 303 | 52 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 440 | 67 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 205 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 152 | 257 | 191 | 447 | 39 | 268 | 41 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 271 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 132 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 170 | 259 | 262 | 521 | 92 | 286 | 43 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 256 | 229 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 115 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 197 | 280 | 345 | 625 | 148 | 336 | 45 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 440 | 67 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 205 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 152 | 257 | 191 | 447 | 39 | 268 | 41 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 307 | 271 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 132 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 170 | 259 | 262 | 521 | 92 | 286 | 43 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 256 | 229 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 115 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 197 | 280 | 345 | 625 | 148 | 336 | 45 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 337 | 301 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 145 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 169 | 250 | 294 | 544 | 124 | 278 | 43 | 7 | 248 | 54 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 251 | 292 | 543 | 121 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 54 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 30% | 254 | 227 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 106 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 256 | 305 | 560 | 130 | 280 | 42 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 44% | 306 | 273 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 124 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 179 | 260 | 312 | 572 | 133 | 281 | 41 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 51% | 341 | 305 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 135 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 182 | 263 | 317 | 580 | 134 | 281 | 40 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 350 | 313 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 136 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 185 | 265 | 319 | 584 | 134 | 281 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 351 | 314 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 135 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 186 | 266 | 319 | 585 | 133 | 281 | 38 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 30% | 77 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 257 | 302 | 559 | 127 | 283 | 42 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 44% | 135 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 180 | 261 | 310 | 571 | 130 | 284 | 41 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 51% | 173 | 154 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 183 | 264 | 314 | 578 | 131 | 284 | 40 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 184 | 164 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 72 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 266 | 317 | 583 | 131 | 284 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 187 | 166 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 72 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 267 | 317 | 584 | 130 | 284 | 39 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 756 | 674 | 123 | 20 | 2 | 21 | 58 | 300 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 182 | 264 | 312 | 576 | 129 | 286 | 40 | 8 | 262 | 51 | -32 | +2 | -0 | +8 | +16 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 106 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 258 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 183 | 266 | 313 | 578 | 130 | 288 | 40 | 8 | 262 | 51 | -28 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3492 | 3086 | 529 | 80 | 13 | 72 | 280 | 1454 | 89 | 94 | 42 | 171 | 260 | 276 | 536 | 104 | 289 | 42 | 8 | 244 | 51 | -79 | +4 | -1 | +19 | +39 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 98 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 271 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 171 | 260 | 272 | 531 | 101 | 289 | 42 | 8 | 244 | 51 | -29 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 141 PAwOBA .373 → .294 (−80)K% 29.8% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 3.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 20.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 9.37% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .373 → .294; ISO .248 → .205; BABIP .328 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 86 PAwOBA .285 → .228 (−58)K% 45.3% → 54.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 54.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 32.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .285 → .228; ISO .120 → .084; BABIP .441 → .415. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 280 PAwOBA .299 → .231 (−68)K% 33.6% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.57% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.57% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.55% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 22.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×1.025 | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.19% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .299 → .231; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .321 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 27 PAwOBA .368 → .244 (−124)K% 29.6% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 2.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 27.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 5.53% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .368 → .244; ISO .160 → .115; BABIP .438 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 368 PAwOBA .282 → .215 (−67)K% 29.3% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.35% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.67% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 22.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.017 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.53% | ÷0.824 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.52% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .282 → .215; ISO .054 → .044; BABIP .306 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 346 PAwOBA .301 → .207 (−94)K% 38.2% → 52.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.15% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.03% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.15% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.96% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.05% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .301 → .207; ISO .102 → .066; BABIP .349 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Rays · 24 PAwOBA .373 → .255 (−118)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.948 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 27.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 9.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .373 → .255; ISO .095 → .060; BABIP .467 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Rays · 153 PAwOBA .343 → .248 (−95)K% 26.8% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.80% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.956 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷0.933 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.005 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.902 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .343 → .248; ISO .127 → .092; BABIP .365 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .