Carlos Colmenarez

Carlos ColmenarezSS Durham Bulls

Age 22 L/R 5'9" / 172 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION167 act + 153 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†40

AVG/OBP/SLG.162 / .250 / .250

PA153

HR3

K%44

BB%8

BABIP288

ISO88

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	114	102	17	1	1	0	4	45	4	7	6	167	227	196	423	29	279	39	4	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	114	97	24	2	1	0	8	30	4	7	6	247	327	289	616	41	338	26	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	153	131	24	5	2	1	12	58	9	13	2	183	296	275	571	92	315	38	8	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	153	126	32	7	3	1	17	41	9	13	2	254	382	381	763	127	365	27	11	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	370	326	40	7	1	4	33	202	10	10	11	123	225	187	412	64	298	55	9	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	370	304	64	11	1	6	55	138	10	10	11	211	350	312	662	102	360	37	15	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	506	445	63	7	3	2	43	217	11	16	9	142	234	184	419	43	263	43	8	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	506	414	91	9	4	7	71	156	11	16	9	220	347	312	658	92	327	31	14	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	307	268	46	5	1	6	28	132	9	3	3	172	272	265	537	93	308	43	9	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	307	256	56	7	1	7	39	102	9	3	3	219	341	336	677	117	333	33	13	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	TB	—	167	150	30	4	0	7	10	75	5	6	1	200	273	367	639	167	338	45	6	272	66	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
YTD	22	AAA	TB	—	167	145	37	5	0	9	15	60	5	6	1	255	345	476	821	221	368	36	9	360	134	+6	+1	+0	+2	+5	1.4
ROS	22	AAA	TB	10%	153	136	22	3	0	3	12	68	4	3	1	162	250	250	500	88	288	44	8	237	40	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	TB	10%	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	143	200	143	343		291	47	7	220	27	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
FULL	22	AAA	TB	—	182	164	32	4	0	7	11	82	5	6	1	195	267	348	614	152	333	45	6	267	63	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.0
TOT	22	AAA	TB	—	320	286	52	7	0	10	22	143	9	9	2	182	262	311	573	129	313	45	7	255	54	-17	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TB	38%	413	368	63	9	1	9	33	173	9	8	3	171	256	274	531	103	290	42	8	249	49	-24	+0	+0	+4	+12	-0.8
2028	24	MLB	TB	48%	462	412	74	11	1	11	38	186	9	9	3	180	264	291	555	112	291	40	8	258	56	-23	+1	+0	+5	+13	-0.4
2029	25	MLB	TB	53%	484	431	79	12	1	12	40	189	10	9	4	183	268	299	567	116	291	39	8	264	60	-22	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.3
2030	26	MLB	TB	55%	496	441	83	12	2	13	42	192	10	9	4	188	274	313	587	125	291	39	8	267	62	-21	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.2
2031	27	MLB	TB	54%	497	441	82	12	1	13	43	193	10	9	4	186	273	306	579	120	291	39	9	267	62	-21	+0	+0	+5	+14	-0.2
2032	28	MLB	TB	54%	493	437	81	12	1	13	43	192	10	9	4	185	273	307	580	121	291	39	9	266	62	-21	+0	-1	+5	+14	-0.3
2027	23	MLB	TB	38%	159	142	24	3	0	4	13	67	3	3	1	169	253	275	528	106	294	42	8	234	37	-11	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
2028	24	MLB	TB	48%	222	197	36	5	1	5	18	89	5	4	2	183	268	294	563	112	295	40	8	244	45	-14	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.5
2029	25	MLB	TB	53%	254	226	42	6	1	6	21	99	5	5	2	186	270	301	571	115	295	39	8	250	49	-15	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.5
2030	26	MLB	TB	55%	271	241	46	7	1	7	23	105	5	5	2	191	275	315	590	124	295	39	8	252	51	-15	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
2031	27	MLB	TB	54%	271	241	46	7	1	7	23	105	5	5	2	191	275	315	590	124	295	39	8	253	51	-15	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
2032	28	MLB	TB	54%	268	238	45	7	1	7	23	104	5	5	2	189	274	315	590	126	294	39	9	252	51	-15	+0	-0	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1460	1299	241	35	5	36	122	576	28	27	11	186	270	303	573	118	296	39	8	248	48	-86	+1	-0	+16	+41	-2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	107	16	2	16	54	256	12	12	5	185	268	303	571	118	294	39	8	248	48	-38	+0	-0	+7	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	4448	3938	674	96	15	87	371	1847	105	105	54	171	261	269	530	98	289	42	8	244	45	-276	-1	-1	+48	+126	-10.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	99	14	2	13	54	270	15	15	8	172	260	271	532	99	291	42	8	244	45	-40	-0	-0	+7	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	114	97	24	2	1	0	8	30	4	7	6	247	327	289	616	41	338	26	7	278	71	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	153	126	32	7	3	1	17	41	9	13	2	254	382	381	763	127	365	27	11	349	125	+4	+2	—	—	+4	1.1
2023	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	346	283	57	9	1	6	52	132	10	10	11	201	345	304	649	102	349	38	15	307	93	-3	-2	—	—	+10	0.5
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	24	21	7	2	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	333	417	429	845	95	467	25	12	383	151	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	368	297	60	7	3	1	54	108	9	15	8	202	340	256	596	54	306	29	15	284	76	-10	-0	—	—	+10	0.0
2024	20	INTL	Perth Heat	—	138	117	31	2	1	6	17	48	2	1	1	265	365	453	818	188	391	35	12	362	135	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	280	231	48	6	1	6	38	94	8	3	3	208	338	320	658	113	321	34	14	307	93	-2	-1	—	—	+8	0.5
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	27	25	8	1	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	320	370	480	850	160	438	30	4	379	148	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,477	37	28	185	267	304	+16	+9	-1.0	-0.5
	/162	664	17	12	185	267	304	+7.1	+4.0	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Colmenarez (OGILVIE)	22	25	35	45	55	182/262/311	129	313	10	9	45%	7%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Bracho 2023 · A	22	30→37	41→50	44→40	38	156/224/248	92	251	9	4	40%	7%	25	-3.5	196/259/332	136	263	17	5	31%	7%	62	-0.9	193/255/337	144	244	19	4	29%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Andry Arias 2022 · A	22	38	42→40	44→40	39	189/254/293	104	286	10	7	36%	7%	50	-1.8	194/259/289	95	310	7	6	37%	7%	50	-1.8	160/232/251	91	264	6	3	39%	8%	26	-1.1
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	173/222/254	81	276	7	4	39%	5%	24	-3.5	183/241/264	81	308	8	5	40%	6%	36	-2.7	115/169/126	12	224	0	0	46%	5%	-33	-1.4
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	41→31	40→45	50	44	197/272/291	94	298	8	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	201/266/318	117	303	13	11	35%	7%	61	-1.0	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Leandro Emiliani 2022 · A	22	37	41→45	46→30	39	179/252/273	94	292	9	4	40%	8%	43	-2.2	183/243/288	105	295	10	3	39%	6%	43	-2.2	169/230/274	105	270	10	1	39%	6%	32	-1.6
✕Luis Toribio 2023 · A	22	35→38	44→45	45→40	37	175/241/290	115	300	13	3	44%	8%	43	-2.2	179/249/306	127	292	15	3	41%	8%	51	-1.7	160/234/288	128	247	16	1	40%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Jose Dilone 2023 · A	22	37	37→30	51→55	41	175/254/241	66	286	5	13	37%	8%	37	-2.7	209/287/298	89	367	7	11	41%	9%	64	-0.8	218/310/312	94	434	9	12	46%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/224/252	77	276	5	7	37%	5%	25	-3.5	182/265/327	145	260	18	6	36%	8%	64	-0.8	160/246/298	138	227	19	4	38%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Nick Plummer 2018 · A	22	39→48	38→45	42→50	46	176/283/257	80	297	6	8	38%	10%	54	-1.4	164/267/260	96	292	8	7	42%	10%	48	-1.9	182/279/305	123	300	13	10	40%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Randy Florentino 2022 · A	22	34	40→50	43→45	39	169/234/252	83	267	8	6	38%	7%	30	-3.1	190/245/276	86	264	8	6	30%	6%	40	-2.4	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Shawn Griffin 2009 · A	22	41	40→45	50	38	191/252/282	90	316	7	11	39%	7%	44	-2.1	215/265/307	92	339	6	7	36%	6%	56	-1.3	233/273/330	96	357	6	2	35%	5%	62	-0.3
✕Michael Pérez 2015 · A	22	36	44→50	41→40	40	179/247/294	116	287	11	3	40%	8%	46	-2.0	191/249/286	95	267	8	4	30%	7%	45	-2.1	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A	21	34→44	39→45	49→40	36	170/224/255	86	263	7	6	37%	6%	26	-3.4	215/264/318	103	309	9	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	218/267/322	104	302	10	3	30%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Stephen Paolini 2023 · A	22	38→41	38→40	48→50	37	172/243/249	77	316	5	12	44%	8%	33	-2.9	180/247/268	88	334	8	17	45%	7%	40	-2.4	160/229/247	86	302	9	23	47%	7%	25	-1.6
✕Logan Moore 2013 · A	22	39	39→40	44→30	39	188/251/271	83	284	7	5	34%	6%	42	-2.3	187/238/265	78	265	5	3	30%	6%	34	-2.8	190/236/282	92	264	10	0	31%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Deivis Nadal 2023 · A	21	37	36→40	48→55	37	175/244/240	65	289	3	14	38%	6%	31	-3.0	173/255/277	104	332	9	19	46%	9%	46	-2.0	140/234/249	109	282	11	25	49%	10%	28	-1.4
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	301	9	13	31%	7%	61	-1.0	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Chad McClanahan 2021 · A	23	37→30	38→40	45	43	180/256/253	73	280	6	7	36%	8%	40	-2.4	177/250/265	88	356	8	6	48%	8%	41	-2.3	123/208/196	72	272	8	1	53%	9%	4	-2.4
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5