Brock Jones
OF Durham Bulls| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+TB | 377 | .224/.327/.445 | 17 | 32 | 38 | — | .146/.221/.294 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AATB | 324 | .178/.333/.384 | 13 | 24 | 55 | — | .144/.262/.292 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AATB | 262 | .195/.296/.357 | 8 | 19 | 40 | — | .167/.246/.293 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 26 | MLBTB | 16 | .152/.243/.279 | 0 | 1 | 49 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 59 | .156/.246/.282 | 1 | 3 | 50 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 62 | 49 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 286 | 426 | 653 | 1.079 | 367 | 400 | 34 | 19 | 451 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 211 | 375 | 211 | 586 | 308 | 25 | 21 | 296 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 372 | 318 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 123 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 201 | 312 | 412 | 724 | 211 | 268 | 33 | 13 | 321 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 326 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 142 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 224 | 327 | 445 | 772 | 221 | 333 | 38 | 12 | 342 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 77 | 73 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 151 | 195 | 397 | 592 | 247 | 231 | 55 | 5 | 257 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 247 | 185 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 85 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 189 | 378 | 378 | 756 | 189 | 284 | 34 | 20 | 342 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 183 | 149 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 76 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 201 | 316 | 342 | 658 | 141 | 377 | 42 | 11 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 79 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 181 | 253 | 389 | 642 | 208 | 281 | 46 | 9 | 285 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 62 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 212 | 328 | 481 | 809 | 269 | 344 | 47 | 15 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 24 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 243 | 38 | 12 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 372 | 338 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 170 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 136 | 209 | 278 | 487 | 142 | 208 | 46 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 343 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 195 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 146 | 221 | 294 | 515 | 149 | 271 | 52 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 77 | 74 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 95 | 130 | 203 | 333 | 108 | 206 | 62 | 4 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 247 | 200 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 103 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 160 | 303 | 320 | 623 | 160 | 249 | 42 | 14 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 183 | 155 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 91 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 181 | 270 | 297 | 567 | 116 | 356 | 50 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 79 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 135 | 190 | 284 | 474 | 149 | 251 | 56 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 86 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 192 | 306 | 384 | 689 | 192 | 333 | 44 | 14 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 86 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 265 | 412 | 529 | 941 | 265 | 368 | 31 | 20 | 408 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 372 | 338 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 170 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 136 | 209 | 278 | 487 | 142 | 219 | 46 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 372 | 318 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 123 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 201 | 312 | 412 | 724 | 211 | 268 | 33 | 13 | 321 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 343 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 195 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 146 | 221 | 294 | 515 | 149 | 277 | 52 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 326 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 142 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 224 | 327 | 445 | 772 | 221 | 333 | 38 | 12 | 342 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 274 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 150 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 146 | 264 | 303 | 567 | 157 | 256 | 46 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 324 | 258 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 127 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 178 | 333 | 384 | 717 | 205 | 273 | 39 | 16 | 322 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 229 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 135 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 166 | 245 | 293 | 538 | 127 | 364 | 52 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 262 | 221 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 112 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 195 | 296 | 357 | 654 | 163 | 347 | 43 | 11 | 287 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 86 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 189 | 306 | 378 | 684 | 189 | 316 | 44 | 14 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 372 | 338 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 170 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 136 | 209 | 278 | 487 | 142 | 208 | 46 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 341 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 195 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 147 | 221 | 296 | 517 | 150 | 271 | 52 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 277 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 150 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 144 | 264 | 300 | 564 | 155 | 239 | 46 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 236 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 135 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 161 | 245 | 284 | 529 | 123 | 324 | 52 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 377 | 341 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 195 | 6 | 32 | 4 | 147 | 221 | 296 | 517 | 150 | 271 | 52 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 324 | 277 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 150 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 144 | 264 | 300 | 564 | 155 | 239 | 46 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 262 | 236 | 38 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 135 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 161 | 245 | 284 | 529 | 123 | 324 | 52 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 10% | 312 | 276 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 139 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 152 | 242 | 280 | 522 | 128 | 257 | 45 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 10% | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 243 | 279 | 521 | 126 | 259 | 44 | 6 | 240 | 49 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 31% | 191 | 169 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 155 | 245 | 284 | 529 | 129 | 258 | 43 | 9 | 243 | 50 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 31% | 59 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 156 | 246 | 282 | 528 | 126 | 261 | 44 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 59 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 132 | 220 | 208 | 428 | 75 | 231 | 44 | 8 | 242 | 44 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 77 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 286 | 11 | 33 | 11 | 132 | 220 | 207 | 427 | 75 | 230 | 44 | 8 | 242 | 44 | -38 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1767 | 1564 | 235 | 48 | 12 | 51 | 155 | 840 | 25 | 113 | 32 | 150 | 238 | 294 | 532 | 144 | 269 | 48 | 9 | 234 | 44 | -21 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 87 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 309 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 151 | 239 | 296 | 534 | 144 | 271 | 48 | 9 | 234 | 44 | -39 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 183 PAwOBA .281 → .240 (−41)K% 41.5% → 49.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 49.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 26.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 3.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 4.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .281 → .240; ISO .141 → .116; BABIP .377 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 79 PAwOBA .277 → .198 (−79)K% 45.6% → 55.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 55.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 7.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 8.87% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .277 → .198; ISO .208 → .144; BABIP .281 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 247 PAwOBA .338 → .279 (−60)K% 34.4% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.41% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.84% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 13.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 7.02% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .338 → .279; ISO .189 → .173; BABIP .284 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 77 PAwOBA .249 → .153 (−96)K% 54.5% → 61.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 54.55% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 61.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.19% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 9.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 8.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.13% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 8.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .153; ISO .247 → .126; BABIP .231 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 377 PAwOBA .334 → .225 (−109)K% 37.7% → 51.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.67% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 51.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 15.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.33% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.24% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.99% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .334 → .225; ISO .221 → .155; BABIP .333 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 372 PAwOBA .315 → .212 (−104)K% 33.1% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.06% | ÷0.950 | ×1.310 | — | — | 45.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.90% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷1.047 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.103 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 6.42% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .212; ISO .211 → .149; BABIP .268 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 62 PAwOBA .447 → .332 (−115)K% 33.9% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.87% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.35% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 11.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.053 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 3.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.943 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 12.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 94, 2B 113, 3B 111, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .447 → .332; ISO .367 → .272; BABIP .400 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Rays · 24 PAwOBA .290 → .201 (−90)K% 25.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.83% | ÷0.956 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 13.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 24.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .201; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .308 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).