Aaron Bracho

2B Tulsa Drillers
Age 26 L/R 5'9" / 193 lbs AA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202322AACLE424.245/.342/.44118385—.216/.292/.384
202423AA/INTL2 orgs466.221/.309/.35911465—.198/.261/.299
202524AALAD148.194/.260/.3435333—.167/.212/.283
2027PROJMLE26MLBLAD2.204/.267/.3220068-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB27MLBLAD35.205/.269/.3241069-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA
Whiff%79
Z-Con%71
ISO70
K%53
Speed31
wOBA25
CompsK.C. Hobson (age 26) · CJ Alexander (age 26) · J.D. Roberts (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .267 / .322
PA2
HR0
K%50
BB%7
BABIP258
ISO117
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +1.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201918 ROKAZL Indians Blue — 137108 321026 23212 41 2964295931.021 296306 1517 429 103 — — — — — —
202120 A+Lake County Captains — 279241 42907 32891 12 174274299572 124233 3211 261 15 — — — — — —
202221 A+Lake County Captains — 299261 481318 28915 10 184276333609 149241 309 273 26 — — — — — —
202322 AAAkron RubberDucks — 424367 9014218 49975 32 245342441783 196282 2312 347 85 — — — — — —
202423 AAAkron RubberDucks — 405358 791428 36805 31 221301338639 117257 209 287 53 — — — — — —
202423 INTLTiburones de La Guaira — 6149 11313 1180 11 224367510877 286205 1318 377 141 — — — — — —
202524 AATulsa Drillers — 148134 26505 11351 32 194260343604 149219 247 268 33 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Blue — 137116 25715 15302 41 216316422738 207227 2211 321 103 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLELake County Captains — 279250 32705 231171 12 128204216420 88199 428 191 15 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLELake County Captains — 299269 381015 201145 10 141214242456 100207 387 207 26 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 424380 8212216 361215 32 216292384676 168267 298 294 85 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 405368 731227 261005 31 198261299560 101240 256 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 148138 23404 7431 32 167212283495 116196 295 217 33 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Blue — 137116 25715 15302 41 216316422738 207235 2211 321 103 — — — — — —
201918 ROK RAWAZL Indians Blue — 137108 321026 23212 41 2964295931.021 296306 1517 429 103 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLELake County Captains — 279250 32705 231171 12 128204216420 88203 428 191 15 — — — — — —
202120 A+ RAWLake County Captains — 279241 42907 32891 12 174274299572 124233 3211 261 15 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLELake County Captains — 299269 381015 201145 10 141214242456 100214 387 207 26 — — — — — —
202221 A+ RAWLake County Captains — 299261 481318 28915 10 184276333609 149241 309 273 26 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 424380 8212216 361215 32 216292384676 168268 298 294 85 — — — — — —
202322 AA RAWAkron RubberDucks — 424367 9014218 49975 32 245342441783 196282 2312 347 85 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 466425 841428 291155 42 198257296554 99246 256 246 53 — — — — — —
202423 AA RAW2 teams — 466407 9017311 47885 42 221309359668 138251 1910 299 53 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 148138 23404 7431 32 167212283495 116204 295 217 33 — — — — — —
202524 AA RAWTulsa Drillers — 148134 26505 11351 32 194260343604 149219 247 268 33 — — — — — —
201918 ROK MLEAZL Indians Blue — 137119 25715 15302 41 210316412728 202227 2211 321 103 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLELake County Captains — 279253 32705 231171 12 126204213418 87199 428 191 15 — — — — — —
202221 A+ MLELake County Captains — 299272 381015 201145 10 140214239453 99207 387 207 26 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 424380 8212216 361215 32 216292384676 168267 298 294 85 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 466429 841428 291155 42 196257294551 98240 256 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 148139 23404 7431 32 165212281493 115196 295 217 33 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AA MLE2 teams — 466429 841428 291155 42 196257294551 98240 256 246 53 — — — — — —
202524 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 148139 23404 7431 32 165212281493 115196 295 217 33 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLELAD 2% 200182 38714 14522 31 208270327597 119264 267 269 68 -8 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXLAD 2% 22 0000 010 00 204267322590 118258 500 266 68 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLELAD 27% 130119 26513 9341 10 209272328600 119265 267 270 69 -5 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.1
202827 MLB CTXLAD 27% 3533 6101 290 00 205269324593 119259 266 267 69 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3533 6101 290 00 182229303532 121217 266 267 54 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650613 11219019 371670 00 183229307536 124218 266 267 54 -24 +0 +0 +2 +14 -0.8
Career— MLE — 19671774 32662748 14559621 189 184254308561 124240 307 248 54 -8 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 10720216 481977 63 183253305558 123238 307 248 54 -24 +1 +0 +2 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 148 PAwOBA .265 → .217 (−48)K% 23.6% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.65%÷0.984×1.220——29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.43%÷1.061×0.700—×1.0124.96%
HBP% /PA0.68%—×0.870—×1.0120.59%
Singles /BIP16.16%÷0.968×0.920×0.969×1.01215.07%
Doubles /BIP5.05%÷1.014×0.840×0.969×1.0124.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.137×0.940×0.969×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP5.05%÷0.957×0.800—×1.0124.27%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 127, K 97, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .265 → .217; ISO .149 → .122; BABIP .219 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 405 PAwOBA .283 → .246 (−38)K% 19.8% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.75%÷0.980×1.220——24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.64%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0276.29%
HBP% /PA1.23%—×0.850—×1.0271.08%
Singles /BIP19.78%÷0.993×0.970×0.950×1.02718.85%
Doubles /BIP5.04%÷0.944×0.860×0.950×1.0274.47%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.023×0.950×0.950×1.0270.65%
Home runs /BIP2.88%÷0.966×0.780—×1.0272.39%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 105, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .283 → .246; ISO .117 → .100; BABIP .257 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 424 PAwOBA .340 → .294 (−46)K% 22.9% → 28.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.88%÷0.977×1.220——28.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.56%÷0.988×0.700—×1.0428.53%
HBP% /PA1.18%—×0.850—×1.0421.04%
Singles /BIP20.74%÷0.995×0.970×0.950×1.04220.01%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷0.933×0.860×0.950×1.0424.73%
Triples /BIP0.74%÷1.053×0.950×0.950×1.0420.66%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷0.909×0.780—×1.0425.96%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 111, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .294; ISO .196 → .171; BABIP .282 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 299 PAwOBA .268 → .207 (−61)K% 30.4% → 38.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.43%÷1.015×1.270——38.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.03%÷0.975×0.710—×1.0276.76%
HBP% /PA1.67%—×0.790—×1.0271.36%
Singles /BIP15.29%÷0.983×0.920×0.950×1.02713.96%
Doubles /BIP7.65%÷1.005×0.810×0.950×1.0276.01%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷0.970×0.850×0.950×1.0270.50%
Home runs /BIP4.71%÷1.134×0.800—×1.0273.41%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 94, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .268 → .207; ISO .149 → .106; BABIP .241 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 279 PAwOBA .257 → .191 (−66)K% 31.9% → 42.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.90%÷1.026×1.350——41.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.017×0.710—×1.0428.08%
HBP% /PA0.36%—×0.810—×1.0420.30%
Singles /BIP17.11%÷1.041×0.910×0.950×1.04214.80%
Doubles /BIP5.92%÷0.941×0.830×0.950×1.0425.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820×0.950×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP4.61%÷1.222×0.830—×1.0423.26%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .257 → .191; ISO .124 → .086; BABIP .233 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Indians Blue · 137 PAwOBA .430 → .321 (−109)K% 15.3% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.33%÷1.000×1.440——22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.79%÷1.000×0.620—×1.02210.64%
HBP% /PA1.46%—×0.720—×1.0221.07%
Singles /BIP16.09%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×1.02212.82%
Doubles /BIP11.49%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0228.04%
Triples /BIP2.30%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×1.0221.61%
Home runs /BIP6.90%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0225.50%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .430 → .321; ISO .296 → .233; BABIP .306 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .