Aaron Bracho — OGILVIE

Aaron Bracho2B Tulsa Drillers

Age 25 L/R 5'9" / 193 lbs AA HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 149 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .258 / .322

PA13

HR0

K%27

BB%6

ISO122

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	137	108	32	10	2	6	23	21	2	4	1	296	429	593	1.021	296	306	15	17	429	176	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.6
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	279	241	42	9	0	7	32	89	1	1	2	174	274	299	572	124	233	32	11	261	63	-12	-1	—	—	+6	-0.7
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	299	261	48	13	1	8	28	91	5	1	0	184	276	333	609	149	241	30	9	273	71	-10	+0	—	—	+6	-0.4
2023	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	367	90	14	2	18	49	97	5	3	2	245	342	441	783	196	282	23	12	347	121	+11	-0	—	—	+9	2.0
2024	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	405	358	79	14	2	8	36	80	5	3	1	221	301	338	639	117	257	20	9	287	81	-9	+0	—	—	+9	-0.0
2024	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	61	49	11	3	1	3	11	8	0	1	1	224	367	510	877	286	205	13	18	377	141	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	134	26	5	0	5	11	35	1	3	2	194	260	343	604	149	219	24	7	268	68	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	137	117	24	7	1	5	14	30	2	4	1	205	301	410	711	205	222	22	10	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	279	251	31	7	0	4	22	117	1	1	2	124	197	199	396	76	191	42	8	184	11	-30	-1	—	—	+6	-2.5
2022	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	299	269	36	9	1	5	20	121	5	1	0	134	207	230	438	97	201	40	7	197	19	-29	+0	—	—	+6	-2.2
2023	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	382	78	12	2	15	34	121	5	3	2	204	278	364	642	160	250	29	8	280	76	-12	-0	—	—	+9	-0.3
2024	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	405	370	69	12	2	6	24	100	5	3	1	186	246	278	524	92	228	25	6	236	46	-26	+0	—	—	+9	-1.7
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	138	23	4	0	4	7	43	1	3	2	167	212	283	495	116	198	29	5	216	32	-12	-0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	137	117	24	7	1	5	14	30	2	4	1	205	301	410	711	205	221	22	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Blue	—	137	108	32	10	2	6	23	21	2	4	1	296	429	593	1.021	296	306	15	17	429	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	279	251	31	7	0	4	22	117	1	1	2	124	197	199	396	76	200	42	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	279	241	42	9	0	7	32	89	1	1	2	174	274	299	572	124	233	32	11	261	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	299	269	36	9	1	5	20	121	5	1	0	134	207	230	438	97	211	40	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	299	261	48	13	1	8	28	91	5	1	0	184	276	333	609	149	241	30	9	273	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	382	78	12	2	15	34	121	5	3	2	204	278	364	642	160	253	29	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	367	90	14	2	18	49	97	5	3	2	245	342	441	783	196	282	23	12	347	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	466	426	80	14	2	7	28	115	5	4	2	188	246	279	526	92	235	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	466	407	90	17	3	11	47	88	5	4	2	221	309	359	668	138	251	19	10	299	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	138	23	4	0	4	7	43	1	3	2	167	212	283	495	116	204	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	134	26	5	0	5	11	35	1	3	2	194	260	343	604	149	219	24	7	268	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	—	137	120	24	7	1	5	14	30	2	4	1	200	301	400	701	200	222	22	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	279	254	31	7	0	4	22	117	1	1	2	122	197	197	394	75	191	42	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	299	272	36	9	1	5	20	121	5	1	0	132	207	228	435	96	201	40	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	382	78	12	2	15	34	121	5	3	2	204	278	364	642	160	250	29	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	466	430	80	14	2	7	28	115	5	4	2	186	246	277	523	91	228	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	139	23	4	0	4	7	43	1	3	2	165	212	281	493	115	198	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	424	382	78	12	2	15	34	121	5	3	2	204	278	364	642	160	250	29	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	466	430	80	14	2	7	28	115	5	4	2	186	246	277	523	91	228	25	6	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	148	139	23	4	0	4	7	43	1	3	2	165	212	281	493	115	198	29	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	25	MLB MLE	LAD	2%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	167	231	167	397		258	31	8	263	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAD	31%	253	232	48	9	1	6	17	67	2	3	1	207	267	332	599	125	261	26	7	270	69	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAD	42%	307	280	59	11	1	8	21	81	3	4	2	211	273	343	616	132	263	26	7	274	72	-10	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	343	313	66	12	1	9	24	90	3	4	2	211	274	342	615	131	264	26	7	276	73	-11	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAD	49%	357	326	69	13	1	9	25	94	3	4	2	212	274	340	615	129	264	26	7	275	72	-12	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAD	31%	78	72	15	3	0	2	5	21	1	1	0	208	269	333	603	125	257	27	6	262	69	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAD	42%	129	118	23	4	0	3	9	34	1	2	1	195	258	305	563	110	259	26	7	266	72	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	164	149	32	6	1	4	12	43	2	2	1	215	282	349	631	134	260	26	7	268	73	-5	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAD	49%	176	159	34	6	1	5	13	46	2	2	1	214	282	358	640	145	260	26	7	267	72	-6	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	547	498	104	19	2	14	39	144	6	7	3	209	274	339	614	131	262	26	7	266	57	-18	+0	-1	+2	+12	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	124	23	2	17	46	171	7	8	4	209	274	341	616	132	262	26	7	266	57	-22	+0	-1	+2	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3026	2746	516	98	10	72	213	883	30	31	16	188	254	310	563	122	244	29	7	252	57	-43	+0	-2	+5	+28	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	110	21	2	15	46	190	6	7	3	186	252	305	557	119	242	29	7	252	57	-22	+0	-1	+2	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	551	14	6	211	270	340	+2	+2	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	17	8	+2.4	+2.4	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Bracho (OGILVIE)	25	43	41	46	42	201/258/322	121	258	4	2	27%	6%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕LJ Talley 2022 · AA	25	42→46	43→45	48→50	45	210/267/320	110	264	11	6	25%	7%	66	-1.1	219/281/330	111	278	11	11	24%	7%	74	-0.6	214/280/319	105	269	11	13	24%	8%	68	-0.6
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	46→45	46→40	39	196/258/318	122	283	14	4	35%	7%	63	-1.4	207/287/317	110	285	12	5	29%	9%	74	-0.6	195/283/285	90	265	9	2	28%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Conner Capel 2022 · AAA	25	42→45	46→45	47→55	43	214/267/342	128	266	14	10	26%	6%	71	-0.8	216/288/340	124	274	13	19	25%	9%	78	-0.3	206/286/324	119	261	12	22	25%	9%	71	-0.5
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	44→49	44→45	45→50	39	218/262/334	116	293	11	9	29%	5%	66	-1.1	224/277/336	112	282	10	8	23%	7%	73	-0.6	231/294/322	92	284	6	11	20%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Bligh Madris 2021 · AA	25	43→47	42→50	42→50	42	214/261/318	104	278	10	5	26%	6%	63	-1.4	221/281/340	119	289	11	7	26%	7%	76	-0.4	195/271/351	156	244	20	13	28%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Matt Wallach 2011 · AA	25	43	46→45	42→40	43	215/265/342	126	258	13	3	22%	6%	70	-0.8	213/285/308	95	261	10	5	21%	8%	70	-0.8	195/280/260	65	247	7	3	22%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2021 · AA	25	44→49	47→50	45→50	42	223/270/352	129	284	15	8	27%	6%	74	-0.5	221/281/360	139	306	14	8	31%	8%	80	-0.1	213/280/360	147	293	15	9	31%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	44→47	42→45	44→45	44	213/275/320	107	286	9	6	28%	7%	68	-1.0	219/293/328	109	300	11	5	28%	9%	77	-0.3	217/299/324	107	292	12	3	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Anderson Miller 2019 · AA	25	44→47	43→45	48→50	40	218/259/331	112	283	11	11	27%	5%	64	-1.3	204/249/310	106	277	12	13	30%	5%	57	-1.8	178/229/273	95	248	12	16	33%	5%	38	-1.6
✕Keury De La Cruz 2017 · AA	25	44→49	43→50	41→50	38	221/253/331	110	286	11	6	27%	4%	62	-1.4	219/258/307	88	289	7	13	26%	5%	58	-1.7	212/234/245	33	281	0	18	24%	3%	30	-0.8
✕Luis Sierra 2012 · AA	25	45	41→40	40→45	41	220/261/318	98	279	8	4	24%	5%	62	-1.4	213/263/292	79	270	4	5	21%	6%	57	-1.8	226/284/294	68	280	0	0	18%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Casey McElroy 2015 · AA	25	46→49	43→40	40→30	48	224/289/330	105	263	11	3	19%	7%	76	-0.4	226/282/317	91	280	7	4	21%	6%	70	-0.8	228/281/311	83	285	4	1	20%	6%	66	-0.8
✕Chad Sedio 2019 · AA	25	46→50	42→45	48→30	39	224/279/328	104	289	9	4	25%	4%	72	-0.7	217/283/314	97	304	7	4	30%	5%	71	-0.8	200/274/294	94	295	6	0	32%	4%	61	-0.9
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	41	42→45	48→55	46	196/275/302	106	285	8	8	32%	9%	65	-1.2	214/296/317	103	297	10	14	29%	8%	76	-0.4	217/300/310	94	291	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	38→42	46→50	43→45	43	197/254/326	129	253	14	2	28%	7%	63	-1.4	218/261/366	148	281	14	6	27%	5%	74	-0.6	247/281/441	194	300	19	6	24%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	42→44	43→50	45	41	209/270/322	113	287	11	7	30%	6%	68	-1.0	208/276/322	114	349	12	8	41%	7%	70	-0.9	155/239/248	92	293	15	0	48%	8%	41	-0.7
✕Fernando Perez 2019 · AA	25	41→43	48→50	43→30	37	212/254/349	137	280	17	4	31%	4%	68	-1.0	236/280/378	142	298	17	5	26%	5%	84	+0.2	241/282/391	150	296	20	1	25%	4%	88	+0.3
✕Anthony Bemboom 2015 · AA	25	41	42→40	45	42	204/246/305	101	245	10	5	22%	5%	54	-2.0	210/258/298	88	268	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	201/272/306	105	260	10	2	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Wendell Rijo 2021 · AAA	25	42→43	44→50	44→50	42	211/263/330	119	272	12	7	27%	6%	67	-1.1	216/274/358	142	280	16	15	28%	6%	78	-0.3	211/271/360	149	264	18	19	27%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	41→39	46→45	48→45	44	208/274/339	131	274	14	10	29%	7%	73	-0.6	216/286/327	111	276	10	7	24%	8%	75	-0.5	200/287/269	68	252	5	0	21%	9%	59	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps