Drew Lugbauer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAMississippi B… | 555 | .213/.328/.443 | 28 | 0 | 57 | — | .160/.241/.331 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 371 | .264/.358/.556 | 25 | 2 | 107 | — | .224/.295/.483 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAAOAK | 322 | .206/.285/.408 | 15 | 0 | 37 | — | .155/.216/.287 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | — | 130 | 119 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 338 | 462 | 801 | 185 | 385 | 29 | 6 | 354 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 103 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 363 | 573 | 936 | 330 | 238 | 24 | 15 | 402 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | — | 461 | 409 | 95 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 153 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 317 | 374 | 691 | 142 | 339 | 33 | 9 | 313 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 493 | 454 | 88 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 255 | 361 | 616 | 167 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 274 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 350 | 300 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 42 | 131 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 332 | 453 | 786 | 230 | 322 | 37 | 12 | 348 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 64 | 52 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 346 | 460 | 692 | 1.153 | 346 | 444 | 31 | 16 | 485 | 215 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 555 | 474 | 101 | 25 | 0 | 28 | 75 | 212 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 328 | 443 | 771 | 230 | 312 | 38 | 14 | 343 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 98 | 89 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 281 | 348 | 630 | 124 | 386 | 45 | 6 | 279 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 273 | 233 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 37 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 279 | 385 | 635 | 1.020 | 356 | 368 | 34 | 14 | 436 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 287 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 285 | 408 | 693 | 202 | 306 | 41 | 10 | 305 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 130 | 122 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 254 | 352 | 606 | 148 | 337 | 42 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 124 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 258 | 420 | 678 | 241 | 188 | 35 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 461 | 424 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 215 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 230 | 262 | 492 | 97 | 302 | 47 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 493 | 464 | 64 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 232 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 185 | 265 | 450 | 127 | 224 | 47 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 350 | 317 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 25 | 160 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 249 | 353 | 603 | 180 | 273 | 46 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 555 | 501 | 80 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 48 | 259 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 241 | 331 | 573 | 172 | 262 | 47 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 98 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 229 | 275 | 504 | 88 | 360 | 54 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 273 | 244 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 111 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 557 | 876 | 320 | 331 | 41 | 10 | 366 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 296 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 216 | 287 | 503 | 132 | 265 | 48 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 234 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 97 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 252 | 368 | 619 | 179 | 268 | 38 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 222 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 68 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 350 | 514 | 864 | 252 | 319 | 27 | 11 | 378 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 461 | 424 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 215 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 230 | 262 | 492 | 97 | 303 | 47 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Rome Braves | — | 461 | 409 | 95 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 153 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 317 | 374 | 691 | 142 | 339 | 33 | 9 | 313 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 493 | 464 | 64 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 232 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 185 | 265 | 450 | 127 | 231 | 47 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 493 | 454 | 88 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 255 | 361 | 616 | 167 | 266 | 34 | 7 | 274 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 375 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 29 | 190 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 173 | 248 | 355 | 602 | 181 | 278 | 46 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 352 | 85 | 15 | 0 | 24 | 52 | 151 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 352 | 489 | 841 | 247 | 341 | 36 | 13 | 370 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 555 | 501 | 80 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 48 | 259 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 241 | 331 | 573 | 172 | 264 | 47 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 555 | 474 | 101 | 25 | 0 | 28 | 75 | 212 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 328 | 443 | 771 | 230 | 312 | 38 | 14 | 343 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 371 | 335 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 30 | 163 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 295 | 481 | 776 | 257 | 344 | 44 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 371 | 322 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 25 | 43 | 138 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 358 | 556 | 914 | 292 | 373 | 37 | 12 | 395 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 296 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 216 | 287 | 503 | 132 | 267 | 48 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 287 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 285 | 408 | 693 | 202 | 306 | 41 | 10 | 305 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 232 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 97 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 252 | 371 | 623 | 181 | 264 | 38 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 461 | 422 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 215 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 166 | 230 | 263 | 493 | 97 | 302 | 47 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 493 | 463 | 64 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 232 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 185 | 266 | 451 | 127 | 224 | 47 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 374 | 65 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 29 | 190 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 248 | 356 | 603 | 182 | 273 | 46 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 555 | 496 | 80 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 48 | 259 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 241 | 335 | 576 | 173 | 262 | 47 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 371 | 334 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 23 | 30 | 163 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 295 | 482 | 777 | 257 | 339 | 44 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 296 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 216 | 287 | 503 | 132 | 265 | 48 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 322 | 296 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 216 | 287 | 503 | 132 | 265 | 48 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2870 | 2629 | 444 | 98 | 4 | 105 | 199 | 1310 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 169 | 236 | 329 | 565 | 160 | 277 | 46 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -161 | +0 | +0 | -51 | +62 | -15.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 24 | 45 | 297 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 236 | 331 | 567 | 161 | 279 | 46 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -36 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -3.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 322 PAwOBA .300 → .223 (−77)K% 40.7% → 47.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.68% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.87% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.67% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .300 → .223; ISO .202 → .133; BABIP .306 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMississippi Braves · 273 PAwOBA .424 → .366 (−58)K% 34.4% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.55% | ÷0.943 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 18.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 8.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.014 | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.83% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 15.61% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .424 → .366; ISO .356 → .333; BABIP .368 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 98 PAwOBA .277 → .217 (−60)K% 44.9% → 53.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.90% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 53.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 32.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .277 → .217; ISO .124 → .083; BABIP .386 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 555 PAwOBA .331 → .253 (−78)K% 38.2% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.20% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.32% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 15.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.54% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.69% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 9.11% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .331 → .253; ISO .230 → .182; BABIP .312 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMississippi Braves · 350 PAwOBA .338 → .263 (−75)K% 37.4% → 45.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.43% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.12% | ÷1.023 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.88% | ÷0.999 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.65% | ÷0.861 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 9.63% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 100, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .263; ISO .230 → .192; BABIP .322 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 493 PAwOBA .267 → .193 (−74)K% 34.3% → 47.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.28% | ÷1.036 | ×1.420 | — | — | 46.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.30% | ÷1.057 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.115 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.033 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.920 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 5.36% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 107, K 107, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .267 → .193; ISO .167 → .124; BABIP .266 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ARome Braves · 461 PAwOBA .305 → .221 (−84)K% 33.2% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.19% | ÷0.952 | ×1.340 | — | — | 46.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.11% | ÷0.995 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.83% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | — | 22.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.59% | ÷1.031 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | — | 6.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.880 | ×0.820 | — | — | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 98, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .305 → .221; ISO .142 → .103; BABIP .339 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ARome Braves · 130 PAwOBA .345 → .256 (−88)K% 29.2% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.23% | ÷0.935 | ×1.340 | — | — | 41.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.15% | ÷1.075 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.58% | ÷1.066 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 10.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.067 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.753 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 4.09% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 51, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 113, K 87, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .345 → .256; ISO .185 → .145; BABIP .385 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .