Drew Lugbauer1B
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 29
L/R
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
HR -6%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .254 / .356
PA250
HR10
K%45
BB%8
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
49→49
SPD
42→42
EYE
47→47
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.7peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-23M | $-23M | +$0.0M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | A | 2 teams | 254 | 235 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 96 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .187 | .248 | .379 | .627 | .191 | .258 | 38 | 6 | .267 | 63 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 461 | 427 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 209 | 8 | 3 | 1 | .164 | .224 | .267 | .491 | .103 | .287 | 45 | 5 | .219 | 26 | -39 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +13 | -3.4 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 493 | 465 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .135 | .181 | .260 | .441 | .125 | .223 | 47 | 5 | .194 | 7 | -52 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +14 | -4.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | 2 teams | 414 | 376 | 67 | 14 | 0 | 23 | 28 | 202 | 8 | 0 | 1 | .178 | .250 | .399 | .649 | .221 | .288 | 49 | 7 | .276 | 69 | -14 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +12 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 555 | 501 | 79 | 19 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 276 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .158 | .240 | .339 | .579 | .182 | .274 | 50 | 9 | .256 | 54 | -29 | +0 | +0 | -10 | +16 | -2.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 371 | 334 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 27 | 31 | 170 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .234 | .306 | .527 | .833 | .293 | .367 | 46 | 8 | .349 | 125 | +10 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 322 | 295 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 165 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .146 | .210 | .275 | .485 | .129 | .268 | 51 | 7 | .215 | 23 | -28 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 250 | 225 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 113 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .182 | .258 | .356 | .614 | .173 | .295 | 45 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB 20% | OAK | 319 | 288 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 138 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .184 | .256 | .358 | .614 | .174 | .293 | 43 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +9 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB 33% | OAK | 325 | 293 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 137 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .191 | .264 | .365 | .629 | .174 | .291 | 42 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +9 | -1.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB 43% | OAK | 319 | 288 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 133 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .259 | .351 | .610 | .163 | .289 | 42 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -12 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +9 | -1.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB 52% | OAK | 298 | 269 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .186 | .260 | .349 | .610 | .164 | .287 | 42 | 8 | .268 | 64 | -12 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +8 | -1.4 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB 70% | OAK | 261 | 236 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 112 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .178 | .251 | .331 | .581 | .153 | .285 | 43 | 8 | .262 | 59 | -12 | +0 | -5 | -5 | +7 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4642 | 4232 | 740 | 146 | 10 | 186 | 341 | 2106 | 44 | 10 | 4 | .175 | .244 | .346 | .590 | .171 | .283 | 45 | 7 | .259 | 56 | -230 | +0 | -17 | -83 | +132 | -20.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 593 | 103 | 20 | 1 | 26 | 48 | 295 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .174 | .243 | .342 | .585 | .169 | .280 | 45 | 7 | .259 | 56 | -32 | -0 | -2 | -12 | +18 | -2.9 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | 130 | 119 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .338 | .462 | .801 | .185 | .385 | 29 | 6 | .354 | 129 | +4 | +0 | — | — | +4 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Danville Braves | 124 | 103 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .243 | .363 | .573 | .936 | .330 | .238 | 24 | 15 | .402 | 166 | +9 | +0 | — | — | +4 | 1.3 |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 461 | 409 | 95 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 153 | 8 | 3 | 1 | .232 | .317 | .374 | .691 | .142 | .339 | 33 | 9 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +13 | 1.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | 493 | 454 | 88 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .194 | .255 | .361 | .616 | .167 | .266 | 34 | 7 | .274 | 68 | -18 | +0 | — | — | +14 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 350 | 300 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 42 | 131 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .223 | .332 | .453 | .786 | .230 | .322 | 37 | 12 | .348 | 125 | +10 | -0 | — | — | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | 64 | 52 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .346 | .460 | .692 | 1.153 | .346 | .444 | 31 | 16 | .485 | 229 | +9 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 1.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 555 | 474 | 101 | 25 | 0 | 28 | 75 | 212 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .213 | .328 | .443 | .771 | .230 | .312 | 38 | 14 | .343 | 121 | +13 | +0 | — | — | +16 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 98 | 89 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .225 | .281 | .348 | .630 | .124 | .386 | 45 | 6 | .279 | 71 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 273 | 233 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 37 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .279 | .385 | .635 | 1.020 | .356 | .368 | 34 | 14 | .436 | 192 | +28 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 322 | 287 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .206 | .285 | .408 | .693 | .202 | .306 | 41 | 10 | .305 | 92 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +9 | 0.6 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Drew Lugbauer (OGILVIE) | 29 | 20 | 49 | 42 | 47 | .181/.254/.356 | .175 | .295 | 10 | 2 | 45% | 8% | 67 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Josh Lester 2022 · AAA |
28 | 37→43 | 56→60 | 45→40 | 38 | .206/.255/.395 | .188 | .270 | 25 | 4 | 34% | 6% | 77 | +0.1 | .211/.257/.394 | .183 | .262 | 24 | 5 | 29% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .203/.250/.375 | .172 | .245 | 23 | 3 | 28% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 |
|
✕Tim Pahuta 2012 · AA |
29 | 39 | 52→55 | 44→40 | 36 | .213/.248/.376 | .163 | .278 | 21 | 5 | 32% | 4% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.256/.365 | .154 | .275 | 18 | 5 | 30% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .193/.241/.339 | .147 | .245 | 17 | 2 | 29% | 5% | 54 | -1.1 |
|
✕Matt Fields 2014 · AA |
29 | 37→41 | 58→60 | 42→45 | 35 | .198/.263/.392 | .195 | .319 | 28 | 6 | 45% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .196/.250/.357 | .161 | .320 | 21 | 4 | 43% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .184/.234/.333 | .149 | .300 | 18 | 1 | 43% | 5% | 48 | -1.1 |
|
✕Carlos Peguero 2016 · MLB |
29 | 40→45 | 55→60 | 47→50 | 36 | .210/.266/.391 | .181 | .318 | 24 | 11 | 41% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .224/.281/.381 | .157 | .328 | 20 | 11 | 36% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .224/.272/.340 | .116 | .325 | 16 | 10 | 35% | 6% | 69 | -0.1 |
|
✕Matt Skole 2018 · AAA |
29 | 37→39 | 51→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .201/.264/.359 | .158 | .247 | 20 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .199/.271/.339 | .140 | .267 | 16 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .188/.269/.317 | .129 | .256 | 16 | 2 | 31% | 9% | 61 | -0.8 |
|
✕Robel García 2022 · MLB |
29 | 36 | 53→50 | 44→40 | 39 | .192/.260/.357 | .164 | .283 | 22 | 5 | 39% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .220/.285/.400 | .180 | .319 | 23 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 91 | +1.1 | .237/.306/.488 | .251 | .326 | 37 | 0 | 38% | 9% | 121 | +0.9 |
|
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA |
28 | 39 | 54→65 | 44→45 | 39 | .211/.271/.392 | .182 | .293 | 23 | 5 | 36% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .207/.269/.356 | .149 | .313 | 17 | 7 | 37% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .173/.240/.327 | .153 | .267 | 20 | 6 | 41% | 8% | 52 | -0.4 |
|
✕Tristan Gray 2023 · AAA |
27 | 35→34 | 55 | 45→40 | 34 | .199/.245/.373 | .174 | .271 | 24 | 6 | 37% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .194/.249/.358 | .164 | .267 | 21 | 4 | 35% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .189/.248/.343 | .154 | .256 | 19 | 2 | 33% | 6% | 58 | -0.9 |
|
✕Cody Decker 2016 · AAA |
29 | 36→39 | 54→65 | 41→30 | 40 | .197/.260/.372 | .175 | .271 | 23 | 2 | 36% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .192/.249/.352 | .160 | .286 | 21 | 3 | 39% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .183/.255/.341 | .158 | .267 | 21 | 0 | 38% | 8% | 62 | -0.3 |
|
✕Roman Pena 2016 · AAA |
29 | 37→47 | 50 | 43→45 | 41 | .192/.265/.339 | .147 | .299 | 18 | 7 | 40% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .201/.255/.324 | .123 | .332 | 13 | 10 | 41% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .232/.266/.344 | .113 | .357 | 7 | 16 | 36% | 4% | 65 | -0.1 |
|
✕Clint Coulter 2022 · AAA |
29 | 42→43 | 53→50 | 48→40 | 36 | .218/.269/.385 | .167 | .317 | 22 | 8 | 38% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .223/.287/.377 | .154 | .271 | 18 | 7 | 24% | 5% | 85 | +0.7 | .214/.287/.361 | .147 | .248 | 16 | 5 | 20% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Brandon Waring 2014 · AAA |
28 | 35→41 | 54→55 | 45→40 | 37 | .194/.259/.369 | .175 | .277 | 23 | 2 | 38% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .189/.254/.341 | .152 | .324 | 18 | 5 | 45% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .157/.225/.298 | .141 | .292 | 16 | 2 | 49% | 6% | 37 | -1.8 |
|
✕Joe Koshansky 2011 · MLB |
29 | 37→46 | 54→60 | 44→40 | 39 | .199/.268/.373 | .174 | .295 | 23 | 5 | 39% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .202/.268/.343 | .141 | .307 | 17 | 8 | 38% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .152/.220/.250 | .098 | .240 | 10 | 6 | 39% | 7% | 21 | -0.9 |
|
✕Vince Fernandez 2022 · AA |
27 | 39→38 | 55 | 50→45 | 35 | .203/.269/.386 | .183 | .315 | 23 | 5 | 41% | 6% | 81 | +0.4 | .201/.275/.358 | .157 | .326 | 18 | 7 | 41% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 | .175/.258/.327 | .152 | .292 | 16 | 6 | 43% | 7% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Edwin Rios 2023 · MLB |
29 | 41→47 | 56→60 | 40→30 | 39 | .218/.283/.409 | .192 | .296 | 25 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .219/.290/.394 | .175 | .322 | 22 | 3 | 37% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .211/.284/.391 | .180 | .310 | 23 | 1 | 38% | 8% | 85 | +0.5 |
|
✕Art Charles 2019 · AAA |
28 | 44→38 | 55→50 | 48→30 | 43 | .228/.292/.415 | .188 | .316 | 23 | 6 | 34% | 8% | 97 | +1.5 | .263/.323/.483 | .220 | .343 | 29 | 7 | 31% | 8% | 128 | +3.7 | .307/.371/.605 | .297 | .385 | 44 | 0 | 30% | 8% | 188 | +1.8 |
|
✕Patrick Breen 2009 · AA |
27 | 39→40 | 50→55 | 43→45 | 39 | .199/.266/.355 | .156 | .307 | 18 | 8 | 40% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .206/.294/.312 | .106 | .319 | 10 | 11 | 35% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .162/.295/.228 | .066 | .258 | 9 | 11 | 36% | 12% | 53 | -0.3 |
|
✕Peter O'Brien 2019 · MLB |
29 | 29→39 | 56→65 | 48→30 | 36 | .177/.236/.357 | .180 | .258 | 26 | 3 | 42% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .187/.253/.351 | .164 | .305 | 23 | 5 | 44% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .145/.214/.271 | .126 | .253 | 19 | 2 | 49% | 8% | 24 | -2.0 |
|
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB |
29 | 36→40 | 50 | 46→50 | 41 | .190/.266/.341 | .151 | .284 | 18 | 7 | 38% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .188/.260/.304 | .116 | .308 | 13 | 8 | 40% | 8% | 55 | -1.4 | .166/.236/.251 | .085 | .293 | 9 | 8 | 44% | 8% | 28 | -1.3 |
|
✕Seby Zavala 2022 · MLB |
28 | 32→39 | 52→50 | 42→40 | 34 | .179/.238/.334 | .155 | .284 | 21 | 4 | 44% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .204/.275/.339 | .135 | .321 | 15 | 4 | 38% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .193/.272/.319 | .126 | .301 | 14 | 1 | 38% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |