Drew Lugbauer — OGILVIE

Drew Lugbauer1B Las Vegas Aviators

Age 29 L/R 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .262 / .370

PA250

HR10

K%38

BB%8

ISO178

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	20	A	2 teams	—	254	235	44	9	1	12	15	101	4	0	0	187	248	387	635	200	262	40	6	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	2 teams	—	254	222	58	15	1	13	27	68	4	0	0	261	350	514	864	252	319	27	11	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Rome Braves	—	461	424	68	13	0	10	28	226	8	3	1	160	226	262	488	101	307	49	6	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Rome Braves	—	461	409	95	22	0	12	43	153	8	3	1	232	317	374	691	142	339	33	9	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	493	466	65	17	1	14	24	224	1	0	0	139	183	270	454	131	222	45	5	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	493	454	88	26	1	16	36	169	1	0	0	194	255	361	616	167	266	34	7	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	414	377	68	13	0	24	27	201	8	0	1	180	250	406	656	225	286	49	7	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	414	352	85	15	0	24	52	151	8	0	1	241	352	489	841	247	341	36	13	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	555	499	79	17	0	26	50	274	6	0	0	158	243	349	592	190	266	49	9	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	555	474	101	25	0	28	75	212	6	0	0	213	328	443	771	230	312	38	14	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	371	332	85	12	2	34	33	166	4	2	0	256	331	611	942	355	381	45	9	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	371	322	85	15	2	25	43	138	4	2	0	264	358	556	914	292	373	37	12	395	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	322	294	44	8	0	10	24	162	1	0	0	150	216	279	495	129	272	50	7	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	322	287	59	13	0	15	31	131	1	0	0	206	285	408	693	202	306	41	10	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	OAK	—	250	227	45	8	1	10	19	94	2	3	1	198	266	374	641	176	274	38	8	283	75	-7	+0	+0	-4	+7	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	OAK	27%	319	289	58	10	1	13	25	116	2	3	1	201	269	377	646	176	274	36	8	284	75	-9	+0	-2	-6	+9	-0.8
2027	30	MLB	OAK	27%	87	79	15	3	0	3	7	32	1	1	0	190	264	342	606	152	272	37	8	276	69	-3	+0	-1	-2	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	87	79	15	3	0	3	7	32	1	1	0	190	264	342	606	152	273	37	8	276	69	-3	+0	-1	-2	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	111	22	0	22	52	239	7	7	0	188	262	337	599	149	271	37	8	276	69	-23	+1	-4	-12	+18	-1.9
Career	—			—	3439	3143	556	107	6	153	245	1564	36	11	4	177	244	361	605	184	280	45	7	263	60	-156	+1	-2	-61	+97	-12.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	105	20	1	29	46	296	7	2	1	177	244	360	604	184	280	46	7	263	60	-30	+0	-0	-12	+18	-2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	20	A	Rome Braves	—	130	119	33	11	1	3	8	38	3	0	0	277	338	462	801	185	385	29	6	354	129	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2017	20	ROK	Danville Braves	—	124	103	25	4	0	10	19	30	1	0	0	243	363	573	936	330	238	24	15	402	166	+9	+0	—	—	+4	1.3
2018	21	A	Rome Braves	—	461	409	95	22	0	12	43	153	8	3	1	232	317	374	691	142	339	33	9	313	98	-1	+0	—	—	+13	1.2
2019	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	493	454	88	26	1	16	36	169	1	0	0	194	255	361	616	167	266	34	7	274	68	-18	+0	—	—	+14	-0.4
2021	24	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	350	300	67	15	0	18	42	131	7	0	1	223	332	453	786	230	322	37	12	348	125	+10	-0	—	—	+10	2.0
2021	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	64	52	18	0	0	6	10	20	1	0	0	346	460	692	1.153	346	444	31	16	485	229	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2022	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	555	474	101	25	0	28	75	212	6	0	0	213	328	443	771	230	312	38	14	343	121	+13	+0	—	—	+16	2.9
2023	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	98	89	20	2	0	3	6	44	1	0	0	225	281	348	630	124	386	45	6	279	71	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2023	26	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	273	233	65	13	2	22	37	94	3	2	0	279	385	635	1.020	356	368	34	14	436	192	+28	+0	—	—	+8	3.7
2024	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	322	287	59	13	0	15	31	131	1	0	0	206	285	408	693	202	306	41	10	305	92	-3	+0	—	—	+9	0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Lugbauer (OGILVIE)	29	20	49	42	48	194/262/370	176	274	10	3	38%	8%	75	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Lester 2023 · AAA	29	37→41	56→60	46→40	40	209/260/403	194	254	25	6	29%	6%	81	+0.4	212/257/387	175	263	23	5	29%	5%	76	+0.0	203/248/376	172	249	24	2	29%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA	28	37	52→65	43→45	39	199/260/367	167	280	21	5	36%	7%	72	-0.2	205/268/344	139	314	16	8	37%	7%	69	-0.4	173/241/320	147	270	19	6	42%	8%	51	-0.4
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→44	53→55	44→50	44	206/270/375	170	267	22	5	32%	8%	78	+0.2	223/285/394	171	285	22	5	29%	8%	89	+0.9	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Tim Pahuta 2012 · AA	29	39→41	55	45→40	36	216/250/394	178	279	24	5	32%	4%	74	-0.1	214/260/371	157	279	19	5	30%	5%	72	-0.2	195/244/348	153	247	18	2	29%	5%	58	-0.9
✕Matt Skole 2018 · AAA	29	36→40	52→50	46→40	43	198/257/358	160	242	21	3	28%	7%	68	-0.5	190/260/315	125	263	14	4	32%	8%	58	-1.2	175/253/285	110	245	12	2	32%	9%	46	-1.6
✕Joe Koshansky 2011 · MLB	29	36→46	54→60	44→40	39	196/268/368	172	291	23	5	40%	8%	76	+0.0	201/265/341	140	307	17	9	38%	7%	66	-0.6	135/197/226	91	218	9	6	41%	7%	6	-1.1
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	39→40	56→55	45→40	41	217/270/408	192	260	25	5	28%	6%	86	+0.8	219/276/373	154	274	21	4	27%	7%	79	+0.3	209/272/336	127	265	18	1	28%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Cody Decker 2016 · AAA	29	35→40	55→65	42→30	40	197/261/379	182	269	24	3	36%	7%	76	+0.0	185/241/331	146	284	18	3	40%	6%	54	-1.4	173/244/315	142	258	19	0	39%	8%	51	-0.5
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	37→42	52→55	43→45	42	199/262/366	167	247	19	7	28%	6%	72	-0.2	207/272/356	149	273	16	9	29%	7%	73	-0.1	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0
●Mike Hessman 2007 · MLB	29	26→36	56→65	44→45	39	168/237/346	177	215	26	6	36%	7%	57	-1.2	202/275/419	217	268	30	5	36%	8%	92	+1.2	197/276/419	222	259	31	4	36%	8%	91	+1.0
✕Edwin Rios 2023 · MLB	29	42→47	57→60	39→30	38	221/284/418	197	305	26	4	36%	6%	95	+1.4	220/289/399	179	322	22	3	37%	8%	92	+1.2	209/282/393	184	307	24	1	38%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Peter O'Brien 2019 · MLB	29	29→39	56→65	48→30	37	179/239/363	184	253	26	3	40%	7%	63	-0.9	189/251/345	156	316	21	5	44%	7%	62	-0.9	140/205/254	114	260	17	2	51%	7%	17	-2.3
✕Clint Coulter 2022 · AAA	29	41→42	54→50	48→40	34	213/261/383	170	319	23	7	40%	6%	76	+0.1	220/285/370	150	265	17	7	24%	5%	83	+0.6	212/285/355	143	244	15	5	20%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	52→55	43→30	45	198/268/358	160	252	20	3	30%	8%	72	-0.2	204/268/341	137	272	16	7	30%	7%	68	-0.5	175/244/283	108	235	13	4	30%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Carlos Peguero 2016 · MLB	29	40→47	55→60	48→50	36	208/266/392	184	323	24	11	42%	7%	81	+0.4	226/283/380	154	332	19	11	36%	7%	84	+0.6	227/276/350	123	331	16	10	35%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Tristan Gray 2023 · AAA	27	34→35	54→55	45→40	33	196/240/365	169	266	24	5	37%	4%	63	-0.9	193/248/348	155	266	20	4	34%	6%	61	-1.0	202/259/335	133	273	15	3	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕John-Ford Griffin 2008 · AAA	28	39	53→55	49→40	42	211/266/382	171	269	21	5	30%	7%	78	+0.2	223/281/367	144	289	15	6	27%	7%	79	+0.3	225/285/357	132	289	12	4	25%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Andy Wilkins 2019 · MLB	30	32→42	55	51→45	42	189/256/365	176	245	24	6	34%	8%	69	-0.4	193/262/347	154	306	20	7	41%	8%	67	-0.5	131/216/258	127	220	19	0	48%	9%	25	-1.2
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	51→55	47→45	41	224/278/385	162	297	20	8	31%	6%	84	+0.6	221/276/364	143	301	15	6	30%	7%	76	+0.1	212/268/350	139	286	13	3	30%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Matt Fields 2015 · AAA	30	36→42	56→60	42→45	31	192/247/377	184	309	25	4	45%	6%	69	-0.4	201/250/334	133	341	15	6	43%	5%	58	-1.2	173/217/270	97	321	8	2	46%	4%	25	-1.3