Cristopher Castro
P
FCL Blue Jays
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 150 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.6%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 4 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 16 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.87 | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 17 | 12 | 56 | 249 | 63 | 40 | 6 | 17.5% | 19.8% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 6.11 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 23.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 16 | 66 | 294 | 60 | 58 | 10 | 20.3% | 19.9% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 5.77 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 48 | 200 | 891 | 182 | 176 | 30 | 20.3% | 19.9% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 5.77 | -1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristopher Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 173 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 91 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 90 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 89 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 89 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 89 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 88 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 88 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 87 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 87 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 86 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 85 |
| Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 84 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 84 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 84 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 84 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 84 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||