Core Jackson

SS Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#355ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+NYY	108	.183/.290/.280	0	1	19	—	.144/.224/.216
2026	22	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	507	.249/.363/.442	15	51	88	—	.229/.303/.396
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBNYY	1	.227/.294/.372	0	0	85	0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	24	MLBNYY	103	.230/.298/.380	3	3	89	0.3
2029PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	177	.232/.300/.385	5	4	90	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%95

Speed92

Whiff%82

Z-Con%72

wRC+54

Chase%49

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsTrey Sweeney (age 24) · Drew Gilbert (age 23) · Parker Meadows (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .294 / .372

PA1

HR0

K%23

BB%7

BABIP276

ISO147

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	93	17	7	1	0	11	31	3	1	1	183	290	280	569	97	270	29	10	265	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	103	93	25	5	1	2	8	14	1	9	2	269	333	409	742	140	295	14	8	329	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	352	293	76	17	5	12	45	72	9	32	7	259	375	474	849	215	299	20	13	372	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	52	39	5	1	1	1	12	17	1	10	0	128	346	282	628	154	190	33	23	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	97	14	5	1	0	7	41	3	1	1	144	224	216	441	72	236	38	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	103	95	26	5	1	2	6	17	1	9	2	274	324	411	734	137	299	17	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	352	311	67	14	4	11	27	94	9	32	7	215	297	392	689	177	257	27	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	97	14	5	1	0	7	41	3	1	1	144	224	216	441	72	246	38	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	93	17	7	1	0	11	31	3	1	1	183	290	280	569	97	270	29	10	265	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	507	453	103	21	6	14	37	124	11	51	9	227	301	393	694	166	277	24	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	507	425	106	23	7	15	65	103	11	51	9	249	363	442	806	193	291	20	13	356	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	97	14	5	1	0	7	41	3	1	1	144	224	216	441	72	236	38	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	507	454	103	21	6	14	37	124	11	51	9	227	301	392	693	165	267	24	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	108	97	14	5	1	0	7	41	3	1	1	144	224	216	441	72	236	38	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	507	454	103	21	6	14	37	124	11	51	9	227	301	392	693	165	267	24	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	503	454	104	21	4	12	36	118	8	15	4	226	293	366	659	140	276	23	7	294	85	-9	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	227	294	372	666	145	276	0	0	297	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	28%	375	339	78	16	3	9	27	87	6	9	2	229	297	374	670	145	278	23	7	299	89	-5	+1	+2	+4	+8	1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	43%	409	370	85	17	3	10	30	95	6	9	2	230	299	378	676	147	279	23	7	302	90	-5	+1	+2	+4	+9	1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	52%	428	387	89	18	3	11	32	99	6	9	2	231	300	379	679	148	279	23	7	303	91	-5	+1	+2	+5	+9	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	435	393	90	18	3	11	33	101	6	9	2	231	300	378	678	147	279	23	8	302	91	-5	+1	+2	+5	+9	1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	432	390	90	18	3	11	33	101	6	7	2	230	299	375	674	145	279	23	8	301	90	-5	+1	+1	+5	+9	1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	422	381	86	17	3	10	32	100	6	7	2	228	296	369	666	142	278	24	8	297	87	-6	+1	+1	+5	+9	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	411	372	85	17	3	10	31	98	5	6	2	225	293	362	655	137	277	24	8	293	85	-8	+0	-0	+4	+9	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	58%	393	356	79	16	2	9	29	96	5	4	2	221	288	353	641	132	274	24	7	287	81	-9	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	371	337	72	14	2	8	27	92	4	3	4	216	282	341	623	125	270	25	7	280	76	-11	-1	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	28%	103	93	22	4	1	3	7	24	2	3	1	230	298	380	678	150	278	23	7	302	89	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	43%	177	159	37	7	1	5	13	41	3	4	1	232	300	385	685	153	279	23	7	305	90	-2	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	52%	224	202	47	9	2	6	17	52	3	5	1	232	301	386	687	154	279	23	8	306	91	-2	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	242	219	51	10	2	7	18	56	3	5	1	232	301	385	686	153	279	23	7	305	91	-3	+1	+1	+3	+5	0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	250	226	52	10	2	7	19	58	3	4	1	231	300	382	682	151	279	23	8	304	90	-3	+0	+1	+3	+5	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	244	221	51	10	2	6	18	58	3	4	1	229	298	376	674	147	278	24	7	300	87	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	237	214	48	10	1	6	18	57	3	3	1	226	294	368	662	142	277	24	8	296	85	-4	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	58%	226	204	45	9	1	5	17	55	3	3	1	222	289	359	648	137	274	24	8	290	81	-5	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	213	193	42	8	1	5	15	53	3	2	2	217	283	346	629	129	270	25	7	282	76	-6	-0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1916	1731	395	77	13	50	142	454	26	33	10	228	296	374	671	146	279	24	7	299	85	-31	+3	+3	+21	+42	3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	134	26	4	17	48	154	9	11	3	228	297	373	670	145	279	24	7	299	85	-10	+1	+1	+7	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4501	4065	915	186	34	108	333	1083	67	121	31	225	295	367	662	142	278	24	7	294	85	-62	+5	+7	+42	+84	7.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	133	27	5	16	48	156	10	17	4	227	296	371	668	145	279	24	7	294	85	-10	+1	+1	+7	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 352 PAwOBA .368 → .295 (−72)K% 20.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	26.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.78%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	7.66%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	1.96%
Singles /BIP	19.00%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.028	×0.998	16.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.028	×0.998	6.16%
Triples /BIP	2.26%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.028	×0.998	1.97%
Home runs /BIP	5.43%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	4.77%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .368 → .295; ISO .215 → .186; BABIP .299 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 103 PAwOBA .324 → .303 (−20)K% 13.6% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.59%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.77%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.58%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.85%
Singles /BIP	21.52%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.027	22.51%
Doubles /BIP	6.33%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.050	×1.027	5.87%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.050	×1.027	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	2.53%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.03%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .324 → .303; ISO .140 → .124; BABIP .295 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 108 PAwOBA .261 → .197 (−65)K% 28.7% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.70%	÷0.985	×1.310	—	—	38.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷0.984	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.28%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	2.16%
Singles /BIP	14.52%	÷0.991	×0.870	×1.037	×1.012	13.37%
Doubles /BIP	11.29%	÷1.014	×0.780	×1.037	×1.012	9.11%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷0.975	×0.850	×1.037	×1.012	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.969	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .261 → .197; ISO .097 → .075; BABIP .270 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,916	47	32	228	292	369	+21	+10	4.3	4.1
/162	664	16	11	+7.1	+3.5	1.5	pk7: 4
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Core Jackson (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	224/291/362	139	276	5	6	23%	7%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trey Sweeney 2024 · AA	24	42→45	47→50	54→55	49	213/293/347	134	271	14	19	26%	9%	82	+0.0	222/286/356	134	295	15	16	28%	8%	82	-0.0	219/281/356	137	291	16	15	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA	23	49→50	47→50	51→50	44	238/300/376	138	319	14	13	29%	7%	91	+0.7	230/290/373	143	310	15	10	29%	8%	86	+0.3	222/283/373	151	295	17	8	29%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Blake Tekotte 2011 · AA	24	45→47	48→50	50→55	47	228/290/372	144	279	15	18	24%	8%	86	+0.3	214/274/356	142	286	15	21	29%	7%	77	-0.3	194/258/314	120	261	9	10	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Reid Brignac 2009 · AAA	23	47→54	48→55	49→50	42	235/279/382	147	289	15	10	24%	5%	84	+0.2	237/277/355	118	293	11	8	22%	5%	77	-0.3	236/275/340	105	288	9	6	21%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2024 · AA	23	47→48	44→45	57→55	46	230/292/354	124	295	9	20	25%	8%	82	+0.0	211/279/311	100	292	9	17	29%	8%	68	-1.0	200/274/289	89	282	8	17	30%	9%	59	-1.2
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	54→55	46	237/301/384	147	305	16	24	27%	8%	93	+0.8	233/299/358	125	300	12	15	25%	8%	86	+0.3	230/298/342	112	290	10	18	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43→44	48→55	56→50	47	212/302/359	147	307	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.5	219/297/382	163	280	19	10	28%	9%	92	+0.7	215/296/383	167	260	20	8	25%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA	23	41→43	46→55	50→45	44	205/277/341	136	298	13	10	34%	8%	75	-0.5	217/287/367	150	293	17	6	30%	8%	84	+0.2	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Casey Craig 2008 · AA	23	49→51	45	50	47	242/302/367	125	298	12	14	23%	7%	89	+0.5	235/288/335	100	299	8	16	23%	6%	76	-0.4	236/281/315	79	301	6	19	23%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Daniel Johnson 2018 · A	23	46→51	50→55	48→55	39	235/279/388	153	287	18	13	25%	4%	86	+0.3	242/290/392	150	313	15	15	27%	5%	91	+0.6	229/282/384	156	310	16	14	30%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Graham Pauley 2024 · AA	23	50→52	52→55	53→50	48	253/317/427	174	298	20	14	22%	8%	109	+2.0	220/288/373	153	268	17	10	24%	8%	86	+0.3	202/274/352	149	245	16	9	24%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2009 · A	23	47→43	43→50	48→45	47	227/295/345	118	284	10	10	23%	7%	82	+0.0	228/285/359	131	288	13	6	24%	7%	82	-0.0	225/286/348	123	283	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jordan Danks 2010 · AA	23	49→50	44→50	50	44	236/298/355	119	326	10	11	30%	8%	85	+0.2	232/292/353	121	339	11	14	32%	7%	82	+0.0	238/309/368	130	328	15	11	30%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	51	44→45	53→55	48	238/314/354	116	337	11	15	30%	10%	91	+0.7	231/303/347	116	343	8	18	32%	9%	85	+0.2	221/294/336	115	330	8	20	32%	9%	76	-0.2

Core Jackson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps