Henry Baez

P Midland RockHounds

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#505ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	26	26	126	2.99	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.20
2025	22	AAOAK	23	23	109	2.39	2.59	22.9%	8.0%	—	K 18.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.08
2026	23	AAOAK	14	14	53	7.09	4.45	20.2%	12.6%	—	K 16.3% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	1	1	7	4.84	4.84	17.2%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBOAK	6	6	38	4.65	4.59	18.6%	10.1%	0.3
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBOAK	8	8	50	4.56	4.51	19.3%	9.9%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsCameron Foster (age 24) · Chris Kachmar (age 24) · Dylan Burns (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%17.2%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	10	36	163	37	13	0	83%	3.0	15.4%	10.0%	5.5%	0.0%	4.25	3.06	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	10	36	163	37	13	0	83%	3.0	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	0.0%	4.25	2.13	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	9	7	31	141	41	13	0	78%	3.4	19.8%	11.5%	8.2%	0.0%	3.82	2.89	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	9	7	31	141	41	13	0	78%	3.4	29.1%	9.2%	19.9%	0.0%	3.82	1.70	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	86%	4.7	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	1.5%	3.84	4.08	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	86%	4.7	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	1.2%	3.84	3.15	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	2.5%	2.99	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	2.5%	2.99	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.8%	13.4%	1.9%	2.99	3.35	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	0.8%	2.39	3.08	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	0.8%	2.39	3.08	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	0.7%	2.39	2.59	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	16.3%	13.9%	2.4%	2.8%	7.09	5.05	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	16.3%	13.9%	2.4%	2.8%	7.09	5.05	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	20.2%	12.6%	7.5%	2.4%	7.09	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	17.2%	11.0%	6.2%	2.6%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	78	329	61	33	9	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	2.6%	4.69	4.63	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	72	304	59	30	8	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.55	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	68	289	56	29	8	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	2.7%	4.58	4.57	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	65	273	53	27	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.65	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	60	252	48	26	8	100%	6.0	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	3.0%	4.72	4.78	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	54	228	43	24	7	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.96	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	38	160	30	16	4	100%	6.3	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	2.6%	4.65	4.59	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	50	211	41	21	5	100%	6.2	19.3%	9.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.56	4.51	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	44	22	6	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.53	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	55	232	45	23	6	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.58	4.61	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	53	224	43	23	6	100%	5.9	19.2%	10.2%	9.0%	2.9%	4.68	4.74	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	49	207	39	22	6	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	3.1%	4.82	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	299	1261	241	127	35	100%	6.0	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.64	4.27	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	85	23	100%	6.0	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.64	4.27	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		105	98	454	1934	334	206	30	93%	4.3	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.6%	3.67	3.84	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	853	147	91	13	93%	4.3	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.6%	3.67	3.84	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 53 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.05 (+0.74)K% 20.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.16%	—	×0.810	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.65%	—	×1.100	13.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 109 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.08 (+0.53)K% 22.9% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.94%	—	×0.810	18.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.100	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.043	×1.200	0.79%

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 76 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.60 (+0.89)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.76%	—	×0.770	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.150	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.916	×1.250	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 50 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.15 (+0.77)K% 15.4% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.42%	—	×0.810	12.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.46%	—	×1.100	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷0.953	×1.200	3.76%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 83 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.78 (+0.85)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.740	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×1.180	12.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.121	×1.300	0.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 15 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.57 (+1.32)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.848	×1.250	4.21%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Padres · 31 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.89 (+1.08)K% 29.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.08%	—	×0.680	19.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.250	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.081	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Padres · 36 IPFIP 2.19 → 3.06 (+0.87)K% 22.7% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.70%	—	×0.680	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.250	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.199	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.19 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.58	19.1%	9.1%	218	-0.26	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	89
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	89
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	87
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	84
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	84
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	84
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	84
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	83
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.66	29.0%	22.4%	43	-1.44	2.66	143	83
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	83
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	82
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	66	18.8%	10.2%	1.07	4.70
John Grabow ('11)	2.4	60	19.0%	10.5%	1.04	4.31
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Barry Jones ('86-'93, 1 WAR*)	2.2	62	17.4%*	10.4%*	0.96*	4.17*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*