Henry Baez — OGILVIE

Henry Baez P Midland RockHounds

+0.6 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2029

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%10.5%

IP113

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Padres	12	10	36	163	37	13	0	15.4%	10.0%	0.0%	4.25	3.06	+0.8
2022	19	ROK	ACL Padres	9	7	31	141	41	13	0	19.8%	11.5%	0.0%	3.82	2.89	+0.7
2023	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	17.3%	12.7%	1.5%	3.84	4.07	+1.4
2024	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	16.5%	8.8%	2.5%	2.99	4.19	+1.6
2025	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	18.6%	8.8%	0.8%	2.39	3.09	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	OAK	45	—	45	191	37	17	4	19.6%	9.0%	2.3%	4.22	4.22	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	OAK	24	24	132	557	115	48	13	20.6%	8.6%	2.3%	4.15	4.10	+1.8
2028	25	MLB	OAK	26	26	146	614	130	52	14	21.1%	8.4%	2.3%	4.10	4.05	+2.1
2029	26	MLB	OAK	28	28	152	644	138	54	15	21.4%	8.3%	2.4%	4.07	4.04	+2.2
2030	27	MLB	OAK	28	28	155	656	140	55	16	21.4%	8.3%	2.4%	4.06	4.05	+2.2
2031	28	MLB	OAK	28	28	155	655	140	55	16	21.3%	8.4%	2.4%	4.07	4.08	+2.1
2032	29	MLB	OAK	28	28	152	640	136	54	16	21.2%	8.5%	2.5%	4.10	4.12	+2.0
2033	30	MLB	OAK	27	27	147	621	131	53	16	21.0%	8.6%	2.5%	4.15	4.19	+1.9
2034	31	MLB	OAK	26	26	142	600	125	52	16	20.8%	8.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.26	+1.7
2035	32	MLB	OAK	25	25	136	575	118	51	16	20.5%	8.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.35	+1.5
2036	33	MLB	OAK	24	24	130	550	111	50	15	20.2%	9.0%	2.8%	4.39	4.45	+1.3
2037	34	MLB	OAK	22	22	124	522	104	48	15	19.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.49	4.56	+1.0
2038	35	MLB	OAK	21	21	117	492	96	47	15	19.5%	9.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.68	+0.8
2039	36	MLB	OAK	20	20	109	460	88	45	14	19.0%	9.7%	3.1%	4.73	4.81	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			91	84	400	1681	293	170	23	17.4%	10.1%	1.4%	3.21	3.65	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—			45	42	200	840	146	85	11	17.4%	10.1%	1.4%	3.21	3.65	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	19.6%	9.0%	2.3%	—	4.06	21.0%	12.6%	430	-0.16	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	93
Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	93
Josh Advocate R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	24	SU	3.74	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.68	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.06	3.68	118	93
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2027 · 3.59 FIP	24	SU	3.59	17.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.303	4.11	16.6%	9.3%	92	+0.52	3.46	198	92
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	92
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	92
Dylan Hall R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	19.0%	9.6%	1.4%	.305	5.78	17.8%	4.9%	107	+2.30	3.48	153	92
Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	20.4%	9.8%	1.6%	.275	5.00	22.5%	6.8%	95	+1.52	3.48	121	91
Matt Pidich R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.09	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.33	4.07	196	91
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	23	SU	3.64	20.5%	10.3%	1.8%	.246	3.81	21.2%	12.7%	169	+0.17	2.90	215	90
Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	24	SU	4.37	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.49	4.37	412	90
Chris Powell R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	16.9%	7.8%	2.0%	.266	3.57	18.8%	15.1%	28	-0.18	3.31	102	90
Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	90
Blake Goldsberry R 2027 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.46	3.39	117	90
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	89
Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	89
Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.34	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.30	4.04	287	89
Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	19.7%	6.8%	2.6%	.316	2.79	18.4%	8.6%	41	-0.93	2.79	144	89
Justin Lasko R 2025 · 3.67 FIP	22	SU	3.67	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.63	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.67	173	89
Andrew Bash R 2025 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.22	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.35	3.63	428	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.2	$19M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$19M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.9	$19M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.7	$17M	+$9M
Totals		$22M		$114M	+$92M