Henry Baez
P
Midland RockHounds
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.5 · 2031
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 53 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%17.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.7%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 10 | 36 | 163 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 83% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 4.25 | 3.06 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 12 | 10 | 36 | 163 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 83% | 3.0 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 4.25 | 2.13 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 9 | 7 | 31 | 141 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 78% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 3.82 | 2.89 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 9 | 7 | 31 | 141 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 78% | 3.4 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 3.82 | 1.70 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 98 | 425 | 99 | 46 | 5 | 86% | 4.7 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 4.12 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 98 | 425 | 99 | 46 | 5 | 86% | 4.7 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 3.84 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 516 | 109 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 2.99 | 4.30 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 516 | 109 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 1.9% | 2.99 | 3.35 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 23 | 23 | 109 | 436 | 100 | 35 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 0.8% | 2.39 | 3.07 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 23 | 23 | 109 | 436 | 100 | 35 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 0.7% | 2.39 | 2.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 11 | 11 | 40 | 186 | 43 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 18.7% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 6.75 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 53 | 225 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 93 | 411 | 83 | 43 | 9 | — | — | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 5.40 | 4.50 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 21 | 90 | 16 | 8 | 2 | — | — | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 66 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 69 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 71 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 4.13 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 70 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 79 | 332 | 74 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 75 | 317 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 71 | 298 | 65 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 278 | 59 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 54 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 60 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 45 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 113 | 113 | 662 | 2795 | 581 | 237 | 75 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 3.89 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 176 | 72 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 95 | 440 | 1867 | 328 | 196 | 29 | 93% | 4.3 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 3.54 | 3.79 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 43 | 200 | 848 | 149 | 89 | 13 | 93% | 4.3 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 3.54 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Henry Baez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.3% | — | 4.18 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 246 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 93 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 90 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 86 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 86 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 85 |
| Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .317 | 3.73 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 103 | +0.15 | 3.58 | 173 | 85 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 85 |
| Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.03 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 81 | -0.13 | 3.97 | 194 | 85 |
| Darren Bowen R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.91 | 16.7% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .312 | 6.04 | 14.4% | 3.4% | 133 | +2.13 | 3.91 | 261 | 85 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.31 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .281 | 7.92 | 12.4% | 2.7% | 52 | +4.61 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .273 | 3.10 | 24.5% | 19.9% | 266 | -0.92 | 3.08 | 318 | 84 |
| Jordan Romano R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.72 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .240 | 3.98 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 328 | +0.26 | 2.40 | 670 | 84 |
| Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.86 | 18.5% | 12.4% | 1.4% | .301 | 5.54 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 185 | +1.68 | 3.86 | 260 | 84 |
| Josh Roberson R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.61 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .298 | 5.39 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 60 | +1.78 | 3.17 | 229 | 84 |
| Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .350 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 266 | +0.85 | 3.64 | 530 | 84 |
| Dylan Burns R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 83 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.46 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.2% | .260 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 97 | +0.36 | 3.46 | 261 | 83 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 83 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 72 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.28 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |