Henry Baez — OGILVIE

Henry Baez P Midland RockHounds

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%17.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4550

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	10	36	163	37	13	0	83%	3.0	15.4%	10.0%	5.5%	0.0%	4.25	3.06	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	10	36	163	37	13	0	83%	3.0	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	0.0%	4.25	2.13	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	9	7	31	141	41	13	0	78%	3.4	19.8%	11.5%	8.2%	0.0%	3.82	2.89	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	9	7	31	141	41	13	0	78%	3.4	29.1%	9.2%	19.9%	0.0%	3.82	1.70	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	86%	4.7	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	1.5%	3.84	4.08	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	86%	4.7	17.3%	12.7%	4.6%	1.5%	3.84	4.08	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	98	425	99	46	5	86%	4.7	23.3%	10.8%	12.5%	1.2%	3.84	3.15	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	2.5%	2.99	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	16.5%	8.8%	7.7%	2.5%	2.99	4.20	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	126	516	109	40	10	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.8%	13.4%	1.9%	2.99	3.35	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	0.8%	2.39	3.08	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	18.6%	8.8%	9.7%	0.8%	2.39	3.08	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	23	23	109	436	100	35	3	100%	4.7	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	0.7%	2.39	2.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	16.3%	13.9%	2.4%	2.8%	7.09	5.05	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	16.3%	13.9%	2.4%	2.8%	7.09	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	OAK	14	14	53	253	51	32	6	100%	3.8	20.2%	12.6%	7.5%	2.4%	7.09	4.30	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	7	28	5	3	1	100%	6.7	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	2.3%	4.39	4.39	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	60	281	56	35	7	—	—	19.9%	12.3%	7.6%	2.4%	6.79	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	116	492	94	43	11	100%	5.5	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	4.29	4.24	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	498	99	42	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.4%	11.4%	2.3%	4.21	4.16	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	118	498	101	42	12	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.4%	4.17	4.13	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	116	491	100	41	12	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.4%	4.17	4.17	+1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	113	476	96	41	12	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	2.5%	4.22	4.26	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	108	454	91	40	12	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.32	4.39	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	101	427	84	39	12	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	94	398	76	38	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	87	368	69	36	12	100%	5.8	18.8%	9.8%	8.9%	3.4%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	56	236	45	20	5	100%	5.6	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	4.26	4.21	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	82	346	69	29	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.4%	11.4%	2.3%	4.18	4.13	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	95	401	81	34	9	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.3%	4.14	4.10	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	100	422	86	36	10	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.9%	2.4%	4.14	4.14	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	101	426	86	37	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	2.5%	4.19	4.23	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	98	414	83	36	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.28	4.35	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	93	393	77	36	11	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.53	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	71	35	11	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	3.0%	4.61	4.73	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	66	35	12	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.8%	8.9%	3.3%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	134	798	3369	665	298	88	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	2.6%	4.33	3.99	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	75	22	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	2.6%	4.33	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		105	98	454	1934	334	206	30	93%	4.3	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.6%	3.67	3.84	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	43	200	853	147	91	13	93%	4.3	17.3%	10.6%	6.7%	1.6%	3.67	3.84	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Baez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	17.6%	9.1%	2.3%	—	4.18	19.7%	11.3%	352	-0.21	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	95
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	89
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	88
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	88
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	88
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Jake Walters R 2019 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	17.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.260	3.78	18.2%	7.6%	97	+0.27	3.51	261	87
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	87
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	87
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	87
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	86
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Jordan Romano R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.95	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	687	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	104	19.6%	8.8%	1.01	4.35
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67