Jose Acuna — OGILVIE

Jose Acuna P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION125 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%17.8%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	4	3	7	27	7	3	2	75%	1.8	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	7.4%	3.86	6.38	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	4	3	7	27	7	3	2	75%	1.8	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	7.4%	3.86	6.10	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	65	257	83	22	3	67%	4.3	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	1.6%	2.91	3.33	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	65	257	83	22	3	67%	4.3	32.3%	8.6%	23.7%	1.2%	2.91	2.16	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	101	427	100	44	14	86%	4.6	18.0%	11.9%	6.2%	4.3%	3.93	5.44	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	19	101	427	100	44	14	86%	4.6	18.0%	11.9%	6.2%	4.3%	3.93	5.44	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	19	101	427	100	44	14	86%	4.6	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.3%	3.93	4.23	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	39	178	40	13	3	80%	2.6	18.1%	6.3%	11.8%	1.9%	3.69	3.41	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	39	178	40	13	3	80%	2.6	18.1%	6.3%	11.8%	1.9%	3.69	3.41	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	12	39	178	40	13	3	80%	2.6	22.5%	7.3%	15.2%	1.7%	3.69	3.05	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	18	18	72	301	69	38	8	100%	4.0	18.6%	13.9%	4.7%	3.1%	3.64	5.01	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	18	18	72	301	69	38	8	100%	4.0	18.6%	13.9%	4.7%	3.1%	3.64	5.01	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	18	18	72	301	69	38	8	100%	4.0	22.9%	12.6%	10.3%	2.7%	3.64	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	26	25	125	522	124	63	18	96%	4.8	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	4.0%	4.48	5.20	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	26	25	125	522	124	63	18	96%	4.8	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	4.0%	4.48	5.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	CIN	15	15	84	335	90	33	11	100%	5.6	26.9%	9.9%	17.0%	3.3%	3.54	3.88	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	CIN	11	10	41	187	34	30	7	91%	3.7	18.2%	16.0%	2.1%	3.7%	6.42	5.65	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	24	4	3	1	100%	5.6	17.8%	13.6%	4.3%	3.0%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	130	546	128	66	19	—	—	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	3.4%	4.51	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	125	529	100	65	16	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.13	5.07	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	127	535	104	61	16	100%	5.8	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.91	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	127	535	106	60	16	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.85	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	125	527	105	59	16	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	+0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	121	512	101	58	16	100%	6.1	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.92	4.96	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	116	489	95	56	16	100%	6.1	19.5%	11.6%	8.0%	3.3%	5.02	5.09	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	109	459	88	54	16	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.8%	7.3%	3.5%	5.17	5.27	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	55	232	44	28	7	100%	5.5	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.2%	5.26	5.20	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	85	359	70	41	11	100%	5.7	19.5%	11.4%	8.1%	3.2%	5.10	5.04	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	17	17	101	426	85	48	14	100%	5.9	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.2%	5.01	4.98	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	107	452	90	51	15	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.2%	8.7%	3.3%	5.00	5.00	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	108	456	90	52	15	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.4%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	105	443	86	51	16	100%	5.8	19.5%	11.6%	8.0%	3.5%	5.16	5.23	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	17	17	100	422	81	50	16	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.8%	7.3%	3.7%	5.32	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	661	2791	545	321	94	100%	6.0	19.5%	11.5%	8.1%	3.4%	5.12	4.76	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	97	28	100%	5.9	19.5%	11.5%	8.1%	3.4%	5.12	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		100	87	408	1712	333	196	58	87%	4.1	19.4%	11.5%	8.0%	3.4%	3.86	4.78	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	839	163	96	29	87%	4.1	19.4%	11.5%	8.0%	3.4%	3.86	4.78	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Acuna (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	17.8%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.94	19.4%	7.8%	379	-0.40	—	—	—
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	88
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	86
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	86
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	85
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	84
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	84
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	114	19.4%	11.7%	1.20	5.01
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77