Gabriel Hughes

P Colorado Rockies

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANFG #602Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	67	6.21	4.12	28.3%	8.9%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.12
2025	23	MIX3 levels	24	24	105	4.19	4.12	19.9%	8.6%	—	K 16.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.49
2026	24	MIX3 levels	25	22	111	5.61	3.10	23.8%	7.7%	2.5	K 21.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	23	23	135	4.39	4.33	18.7%	7.9%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCOL	22	22	135	4.54	4.50	19.4%	7.9%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCOL	23	23	136	4.55	4.55	19.6%	7.9%	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$6M2030Arb-2$9M2031Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs57

K%34

FB Velo21

Whiff%17

CompsBlake Burkhalter (age 23) · Dylan Burns (age 25) · Zack Lee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.39

FIP4.33

K%18.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$18M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2022	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	1	1	3	11	1	1	0	100%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	4.8%	6.21	5.12	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	293	83	26	12	100%	4.8	28.3%	8.9%	19.5%	4.1%	6.21	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.19	4.49	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	105	442	88	38	13	100%	4.4	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	1.8%	5.61	3.22	+2.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	1.8%	5.61	3.22	+2.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	22	111	479	114	37	9	88%	4.4	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	1.9%	5.61	3.10	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	13	64	283	56	23	7	93%	4.6	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	2.5%	6.33	3.85	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	23	23	135	570	106	45	15	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.9%	10.7%	2.6%	4.39	4.33	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	142	598	116	47	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.6%	4.32	4.28	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	144	606	119	48	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.9%	11.6%	2.7%	4.32	4.32	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	24	24	144	606	119	49	17	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.40	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	137	579	110	48	17	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.56	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	129	544	100	47	17	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	508	89	45	17	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.9%	8.6%	3.4%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	111	470	79	44	17	100%	5.9	16.8%	9.3%	7.4%	3.6%	5.09	5.25	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	135	570	110	45	17	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	23	23	136	574	112	46	18	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.9%	11.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	23	23	136	574	112	46	19	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.3%	4.61	4.64	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	22	22	130	549	104	46	19	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.4%	4.73	4.81	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	122	515	94	44	19	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.6%	9.7%	3.7%	4.92	5.03	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	114	481	85	43	19	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.9%	8.6%	3.9%	5.14	5.28	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	106	448	75	42	19	100%	5.9	16.8%	9.3%	7.4%	4.2%	5.40	5.56	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	160	944	3998	751	335	136	99%	5.9	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.4%	4.92	4.45	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	159	71	29	99%	5.9	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.4%	4.92	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		64	61	286	1225	240	101	37	95%	4.5	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.0%	5.17	4.14	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	858	168	71	26	95%	4.5	19.6%	8.2%	11.3%	3.0%	5.17	4.14	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	18.7%	7.9%	2.6%	—	4.33	19.5%	11.5%	429	+0.00	—	—	—
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	82
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	82
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	79
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	79
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	79
Adam Maier R 2024 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP	3.58	16.3%	8.1%	1.5%	.323	5.13	14.3%	4.3%	188	+1.55	3.58	271	79
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	78
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	125	18.8%	8.3%	1.14	4.64
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Bob Bruce ('59-'67, 7 WAR*)	5.6	140	20.0%*	7.5%*	1.01*	4.68*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70