Juan Carela

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #441MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	A+CWS	23	22	116	3.58	3.21	27.9%	8.8%	—	K 21.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.23
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	107	3.71	3.33	25.2%	9.9%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.41
2026	24	MIX3 levels	16	16	55	4.75	4.26	22.3%	11.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	23	23	136	5.21	5.21	17.7%	11.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCWS	10	10	60	5.11	5.08	18.8%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	14	14	85	5.06	5.06	19.1%	11.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.6M2032Ext$0.4M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNic Swanson (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25) · Josh Bostick (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%17.7%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP136

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	12.4%	22.1%	-9.7%	0.9%	7.59	5.32	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	12	8	32	164	30	29	1	67%	2.7	18.3%	17.7%	0.6%	0.6%	7.59	4.35	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	17.0%	13.5%	3.5%	1.9%	6.38	4.42	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	42	204	49	23	3	92%	3.5	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	1.5%	6.38	3.34	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	21.1%	13.1%	7.9%	2.4%	4.21	4.32	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	107	463	131	52	9	91%	4.7	28.3%	11.2%	17.1%	1.9%	4.21	3.20	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.0%	3.58	4.23	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	23	22	116	487	136	43	12	96%	5.0	27.9%	8.8%	19.1%	2.5%	3.58	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	2.8%	3.71	4.41	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	453	114	45	9	100%	4.6	25.2%	9.9%	15.2%	2.0%	3.71	3.33	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	17.2%	12.2%	5.0%	3.7%	4.75	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	55	242	54	27	7	100%	3.4	22.3%	11.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	23	23	136	574	102	67	18	100%	5.9	17.7%	11.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.21	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	136	573	108	64	18	100%	5.9	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.2%	5.08	5.05	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	134	565	108	62	18	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.03	5.03	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	130	548	104	60	18	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	3.3%	5.04	5.07	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	124	523	99	58	18	100%	5.9	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.4%	5.12	5.18	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	116	492	91	56	18	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	3.6%	5.26	5.36	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	60	253	48	28	8	100%	6.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.6%	3.2%	5.11	5.08	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	85	359	68	40	12	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.0%	8.0%	3.3%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	98	414	79	45	14	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	3.4%	5.07	5.10	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	101	426	81	47	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.5%	5.15	5.21	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	100	422	78	48	16	100%	5.9	18.6%	11.4%	7.1%	3.7%	5.30	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	443	1872	354	209	64	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.4%	5.14	4.80	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	160	94	29	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.4%	5.14	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		109	101	459	2013	388	255	53	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	878	169	111	23	93%	4.2	19.3%	12.6%	6.6%	2.6%	4.43	4.52	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Carela (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	17.7%	11.6%	3.2%	—	5.05	19.0%	7.9%	399	-0.16	—	—	—
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	85
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	82
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	82
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	81
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	80
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	80
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	80
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	80
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	80
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	80
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	80
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	18.7%	11.2%	1.29	5.12
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Rich Gale ('78-'84, 3 WAR*)	4.9	139	18.9%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.94*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45