Justin Campbell

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 227 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP50ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX3 levels	20	20	69	2.48	2.51	29.6%	11.8%	—	K 24.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.12
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	12	12	70	4.27	4.27	24.3%	11.9%	0.5
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCLE	4	4	26	4.30	4.32	24.2%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCLE	7	7	40	4.36	4.40	24.0%	11.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Peter Van Loon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%24.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	29.6%	11.8%	17.9%	0.7%	2.48	2.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	12	12	70	296	72	35	7	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	2.4%	4.27	4.27	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	69	291	70	34	7	100%	5.8	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	2.5%	4.30	4.32	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	67	282	68	33	8	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.40	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	270	64	32	8	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.53	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	26	110	27	13	3	100%	6.5	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	2.5%	4.30	4.32	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	40	169	41	20	5	100%	5.7	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.40	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	45	190	45	22	5	100%	5.6	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	111	468	112	55	13	100%	6.2	23.9%	11.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.05	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	202	99	23	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		20	20	69	280	67	35	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	58	200	812	195	102	7	100%	3.4	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	24.3%	11.9%	2.4%	—	4.41	24.0%	12.3%	200	+0.14	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	81
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	78
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	74
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	73
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	73
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	73
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	73
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Jimmy Lambert R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	25.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.276	5.13	20.8%	10.0%	114	+0.43	3.43	526	73
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	72
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	72
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	72
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	71
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	71
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	71
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	71
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	24.1%	11.7%	1.01	4.34
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
Mike Dunn ('19)	2.2	62	24.9%	11.8%	0.97	4.00
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*