Kevin Alcántara
RF Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 473 | .278/.355/.428 | 14 | 14 | 89 | — | .249/.310/.370 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAACHC | 430 | .266/.350/.470 | 17 | 10 | 82 | — | .229/.292/.366 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 379 | .269/.358/.523 | 22 | 6 | 94 | — | .217/.287/.387 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBCHC | 28 | .240/.296/.360 | 1 | 0 | 81 | -0.5 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 63 | .224/.290/.371 | 2 | 1 | 86 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBCHC | 139 | .227/.294/.382 | 5 | 2 | 90 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 158 | .227/.294/.380 | 5 | 3 | 90 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | — | 174 | 161 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 255 | 306 | 360 | 667 | 106 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 299 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 138 | 119 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 345 | 426 | 588 | 1.015 | 244 | 456 | 26 | 12 | 434 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 495 | 428 | 117 | 19 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 123 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 273 | 364 | 451 | 815 | 178 | 345 | 25 | 11 | 359 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 500 | 900 | 250 | 333 | 33 | 14 | 381 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 408 | 371 | 106 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 97 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 286 | 344 | 466 | 810 | 181 | 353 | 24 | 8 | 355 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 97 | 86 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 256 | 333 | 535 | 868 | 279 | 327 | 31 | 8 | 373 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 148 | 130 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 292 | 378 | 469 | 848 | 177 | 402 | 29 | 11 | 378 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 325 | 291 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 80 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 271 | 344 | 409 | 753 | 137 | 343 | 25 | 9 | 337 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 379 | 101 | 26 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 128 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 266 | 350 | 470 | 820 | 203 | 356 | 30 | 11 | 362 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 296 | 360 | 656 | 120 | 357 | 39 | 7 | 286 | 81 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 357 | 311 | 81 | 15 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 109 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 260 | 352 | 502 | 854 | 241 | 332 | 31 | 12 | 373 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 22 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 455 | 850 | 1.305 | 450 | 462 | 23 | 9 | 551 | 259 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 296 | 360 | 656 | 120 | 357 | 39 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 174 | 164 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 177 | 220 | 250 | 470 | 73 | 249 | 30 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 138 | 126 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 254 | 309 | 437 | 745 | 183 | 378 | 38 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 495 | 445 | 102 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 171 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 229 | 299 | 369 | 667 | 139 | 324 | 35 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 21 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 350 | 471 | 821 | 235 | 318 | 38 | 10 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 408 | 381 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 127 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 234 | 277 | 354 | 632 | 121 | 320 | 31 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 148 | 134 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 254 | 324 | 373 | 697 | 119 | 396 | 35 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 325 | 299 | 74 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 100 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 368 | 671 | 120 | 335 | 31 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 393 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 155 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 229 | 292 | 366 | 658 | 137 | 346 | 36 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 296 | 360 | 656 | 120 | 357 | 39 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 357 | 323 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 131 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 287 | 387 | 674 | 170 | 306 | 37 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 174 | 164 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 177 | 220 | 250 | 470 | 73 | 250 | 30 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Yankees East | — | 174 | 161 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 255 | 306 | 360 | 667 | 106 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 299 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 138 | 126 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 254 | 309 | 437 | 745 | 183 | 394 | 38 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 138 | 119 | 41 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 345 | 426 | 588 | 1.015 | 244 | 456 | 26 | 12 | 434 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 495 | 445 | 102 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 171 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 229 | 299 | 369 | 667 | 139 | 336 | 35 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 495 | 428 | 117 | 19 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 123 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 273 | 364 | 451 | 815 | 178 | 345 | 25 | 11 | 359 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 526 | 487 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 166 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 236 | 285 | 363 | 648 | 127 | 329 | 32 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 526 | 473 | 132 | 33 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 134 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 279 | 344 | 480 | 824 | 201 | 349 | 25 | 8 | 359 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 433 | 109 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 152 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 252 | 312 | 379 | 691 | 127 | 358 | 32 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 473 | 421 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 123 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 278 | 355 | 428 | 782 | 150 | 360 | 26 | 10 | 349 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 393 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 155 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 229 | 292 | 366 | 658 | 137 | 345 | 36 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 379 | 101 | 26 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 128 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 266 | 350 | 470 | 820 | 203 | 356 | 30 | 11 | 362 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 407 | 368 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 150 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 287 | 383 | 670 | 166 | 312 | 37 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 407 | 356 | 95 | 18 | 0 | 23 | 47 | 125 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 267 | 354 | 511 | 865 | 244 | 341 | 31 | 12 | 377 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 174 | 163 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 178 | 220 | 252 | 471 | 74 | 249 | 30 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 138 | 127 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 252 | 309 | 433 | 742 | 181 | 378 | 38 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 495 | 448 | 102 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 171 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 228 | 299 | 366 | 665 | 138 | 324 | 35 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 526 | 488 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 166 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 236 | 285 | 363 | 647 | 127 | 320 | 32 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 432 | 109 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 152 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 252 | 312 | 380 | 692 | 127 | 354 | 32 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 392 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 155 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 230 | 292 | 367 | 659 | 138 | 346 | 36 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 407 | 368 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 150 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 287 | 383 | 670 | 166 | 310 | 37 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 473 | 432 | 109 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 152 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 252 | 312 | 380 | 692 | 127 | 354 | 32 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 430 | 392 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 155 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 230 | 292 | 367 | 659 | 138 | 346 | 36 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 407 | 368 | 80 | 13 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 150 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 287 | 383 | 670 | 166 | 310 | 37 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 380 | 345 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 129 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 290 | 373 | 663 | 149 | 315 | 34 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -6 | +0 | +2 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 63 | 58 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 290 | 371 | 662 | 147 | 318 | 33 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 44% | 315 | 285 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 105 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 293 | 384 | 677 | 157 | 314 | 33 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 49% | 323 | 292 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 107 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 226 | 294 | 382 | 676 | 156 | 312 | 33 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 324 | 293 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 106 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 293 | 378 | 671 | 153 | 309 | 33 | 8 | 299 | 88 | -5 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 314 | 284 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 102 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 224 | 291 | 373 | 664 | 149 | 306 | 32 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -5 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 305 | 276 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 98 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 145 | 302 | 32 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 44% | 139 | 126 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 294 | 382 | 675 | 155 | 316 | 33 | 8 | 300 | 90 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 49% | 158 | 143 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 294 | 380 | 674 | 153 | 314 | 33 | 8 | 300 | 90 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 167 | 150 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 293 | 376 | 669 | 151 | 311 | 33 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 162 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 291 | 371 | 662 | 147 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 157 | 142 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 289 | 364 | 653 | 143 | 305 | 32 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -3 | -0 | -0 | -2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 811 | 733 | 165 | 31 | 0 | 26 | 66 | 268 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 225 | 294 | 374 | 667 | 149 | 312 | 33 | 8 | 297 | 82 | -12 | -0 | +2 | -13 | +18 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 133 | 25 | 0 | 21 | 53 | 215 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 227 | 295 | 376 | 672 | 150 | 315 | 33 | 8 | 297 | 82 | -10 | -0 | +1 | -10 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4434 | 4036 | 922 | 170 | 14 | 126 | 333 | 1487 | 26 | 95 | 32 | 228 | 291 | 371 | 663 | 143 | 324 | 34 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -27 | +0 | +4 | -24 | +39 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 135 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 49 | 218 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 228 | 292 | 368 | 660 | 140 | 324 | 34 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -10 | +0 | +2 | -8 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 357 PAwOBA .365 → .293 (−72)K% 30.5% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 22.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 7.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .365 → .293; ISO .241 → .176; BABIP .332 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 430 PAwOBA .354 → .289 (−64)K% 29.8% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.77% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.16% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.11% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 24.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.36% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .354 → .289; ISO .203 → .140; BABIP .356 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 325 PAwOBA .330 → .294 (−36)K% 24.6% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.62% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.01% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.044 | ×1.042 | 26.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×1.044 | ×1.042 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×1.044 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .330 → .294; ISO .137 → .126; BABIP .343 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 148 PAwOBA .368 → .313 (−55)K% 29.1% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.05% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.74% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 29.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 8.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .368 → .313; ISO .177 → .129; BABIP .402 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 408 PAwOBA .348 → .274 (−74)K% 23.8% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.77% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.60% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.09% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 23.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.12% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.01% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .348 → .274; ISO .181 → .122; BABIP .353 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 21 PAwOBA .390 → .340 (−50)K% 33.3% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 9.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 4.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 10.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 8.63% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .390 → .340; ISO .250 → .218; BABIP .333 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 495 PAwOBA .353 → .289 (−64)K% 24.8% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.85% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 24.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.23% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .353 → .289; ISO .178 → .144; BABIP .345 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 138 PAwOBA .426 → .306 (−120)K% 26.1% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 27.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×1.008 | 4.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.67% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .426 → .306; ISO .244 → .175; BABIP .456 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .