Jhonkensy Noel — OGILVIE

Jhonkensy NoelRF Norfolk Tides

Age 25 R/R 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA HR +8%BB -5% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

wRC+†vL 6349vR 35

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .254 / .387

PA350

HR16

K%31

BB%5

xwOBA.202

Barrel%6.2%

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30→30

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

39↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.3peak

2026

Barrel%

356.2

xwOBA

100.202

Avg EV

6790.3

Whiff%

100.191

Chase%

100.513

Speed

4227.1

Bat Spd

9077.9

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-4	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-21M		$-21M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	260	227	38	7	0	7	16	83	14	6	4	.167	.265	.291	.555	.123	.225	32	6	.240	42	-17	-0	+0	-3	+7	-1.3
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	209	185	39	8	0	5	11	56	4	5	1	.211	.270	.335	.605	.124	.256	27	5	.260	57	-10	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.6
2021	20	A	3 teams	290	275	73	11	1	15	7	83	6	5	3	.265	.299	.476	.775	.211	.324	29	2	.334	114	+5	-0	+0	-3	+8	1.0
2022	21	AA	3 teams	548	501	91	21	2	24	33	192	10	3	0	.182	.246	.375	.622	.194	.232	35	6	.266	62	-24	+1	+0	-6	+16	-1.4
2023	22	AAA	2 teams	620	567	106	19	0	23	36	183	14	2	3	.187	.253	.342	.595	.155	.228	30	6	.260	57	-30	-1	+0	-7	+18	-2.0
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	482	443	102	19	3	26	26	139	12	1	0	.230	.291	.463	.754	.233	.272	29	5	.321	104	+2	+0	-3	-5	+14	0.8
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	443	416	82	14	0	16	20	148	4	1	1	.197	.241	.346	.587	.149	.259	33	5	.252	51	-25	-0	-2	-5	+13	-1.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	78	73	8	2	0	2	3	28	2	0	0	.110	.167	.219	.386	.110	.140	36	4	.183	-2	-9	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.8
ROS	25	MLB	BAL	272	251	47	8	1	12	14	86	5	1	0	.187	.244	.371	.615	.183	.225	32	5	.268	64	-11	+0	-3	-3	+8	-1.0
TOT	25	MLB	BAL	350	324	55	10	1	14	17	114	7	1	0	.170	.227	.336	.563	.167	.208	33	5	.249	49	-20	+0	-3	-4	+10	-1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 25%	BAL	415	382	73	12	1	19	23	108	7	2	0	.191	.250	.377	.627	.186	.210	26	6	.278	71	-13	+0	-5	-4	+12	-1.1
2028	27	MLB 43%	BAL	421	387	73	12	1	19	24	110	7	1	0	.189	.249	.372	.621	.183	.209	26	6	.278	71	-14	+0	-5	-5	+12	-1.1
2029	28	MLB 52%	BAL	422	387	73	12	1	19	25	111	7	1	0	.189	.251	.372	.623	.183	.209	26	6	.277	70	-14	+0	-6	-5	+12	-1.2
2030	29	MLB 63%	BAL	414	380	72	12	1	19	24	110	7	0	0	.189	.251	.376	.627	.187	.207	27	6	.275	69	-15	+0	-6	-4	+12	-1.4
2031	30	MLB 73%	BAL	407	373	70	12	1	18	24	109	7	0	0	.188	.250	.370	.620	.182	.206	27	6	.272	66	-15	+0	-7	-4	+12	-1.5
2032	31	MLB 81%	BAL	392	359	66	11	1	17	23	107	7	0	0	.184	.247	.362	.609	.178	.204	27	6	.268	64	-16	+0	-7	-4	+11	-1.7
2033	32	MLB	BAL	373	342	62	10	1	16	22	104	6	0	0	.181	.243	.357	.600	.175	.202	28	6	.264	60	-17	+0	-8	-4	+11	-1.8
2034	33	MLB	BAL	343	314	56	9	1	14	20	98	6	0	0	.178	.241	.347	.588	.169	.200	29	6	.258	55	-17	+0	-8	-4	+10	-2.0
2035	34	MLB	BAL	299	275	47	8	0	12	17	88	5	0	0	.171	.232	.331	.563	.160	.197	29	6	.251	50	-17	+0	-8	-3	+8	-2.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6610	6064	1170	205	15	281	365	1915	128	28	12	.193	.254	.371	.624	.178	.227	29	6	.273	67	-248	+1	-67	-71	+187	-20.2
/ 162G	—			650	596	115	20	1	28	36	188	13	3	1	.193	.254	.371	.625	.178	.227	29	6	.273	67	-24	+0	-7	-7	+18	-2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	260	218	53	11	0	10	25	58	14	6	4	.243	.358	.431	.789	.188	.285	22	10	.352	128	+8	-0	—	—	+7	1.5
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	209	178	51	12	0	6	18	39	4	5	1	.287	.365	.455	.820	.169	.317	19	9	.351	126	+6	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	111	100	28	3	0	8	9	31	2	3	1	.280	.351	.550	.901	.270	.328	28	8	.393	159	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.1
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	162	150	59	10	1	11	7	27	3	2	1	.393	.431	.693	1.125	.300	.421	17	4	.481	226	+23	+0	—	—	+5	2.8
2021	20	ROK	ACL Indians	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	1	.200	.294	.267	.561	.067	.273	24	6	.266	62	-1	-0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2022	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	18	17	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	.176	.222	.235	.458	.059	.300	39	6	.211	19	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	278	240	58	16	2	13	30	63	6	2	0	.242	.341	.487	.828	.246	.271	23	11	.362	135	+11	+0	—	—	+8	2.0
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	252	228	50	9	0	19	18	80	4	1	0	.219	.288	.509	.797	.289	.237	32	7	.343	121	+6	+0	—	—	+7	1.4
2023	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	585	519	114	23	0	27	49	145	14	1	3	.220	.304	.420	.724	.200	.249	25	8	.322	104	+3	-1	—	—	+17	1.9
2023	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	35	30	5	1	0	3	5	10	0	1	0	.167	.286	.500	.786	.333	.118	29	14	.341	119	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	23	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	198	179	39	7	1	13	13	63	5	0	0	.218	.289	.486	.775	.268	.250	32	7	.337	116	+4	+0	-3	-5	+6	0.1
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	284	258	76	15	2	18	19	60	7	1	0	.295	.359	.578	.937	.283	.322	21	7	.407	169	+22	+0	—	—	+8	3.1
2025	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	153	148	24	2	0	6	4	52	0	0	0	.162	.184	.297	.482	.135	.198	34	3	.211	20	-14	+0	-2	-5	+4	-1.6
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	252	227	62	14	0	12	21	67	2	1	1	.273	.340	.493	.833	.220	.333	27	8	.364	136	+10	-0	—	—	+7	1.8
2025	24	INTL	Toros del Este	38	33	4	0	0	2	3	10	2	0	0	.121	.237	.303	.540	.182	.095	26	8	.251	50	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			351	327	63	9	1	19	17	115	5	0	0	.193	.244	.401	.644	.208	.226	33	5	.282	74	-10	+0	-5	-10	+10	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhonkensy Noel (OGILVIE)	25	30	55	50	20	.198/.254/.387	.189	.240	16	2	31%	5%	76	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ruben Cardenas 2023 · AAA	25	39→42	57→55	45→50	37	.216/.263/.404	.189	.279	27	9	34%	6%	82	+0.5	.222/.281/.396	.174	.282	23	10	29%	6%	88	+0.9	.221/.285/.395	.175	.272	23	11	27%	6%	86	+0.6
✕Josh Breaux 2023 · AAA	25	36→29	54→60	49→40	36	.202/.245/.375	.173	.267	24	4	34%	5%	67	-0.5	.201/.246/.354	.153	.271	21	4	33%	5%	62	-0.9	.184/.233/.320	.136	.245	19	1	33%	5%	44	-0.6
✕Alex Jackson 2021 · MLB	25	33→36	56→60	48→30	32	.188/.253/.371	.183	.282	25	4	42%	5%	71	-0.3	.206/.277/.388	.182	.296	23	5	37%	6%	85	+0.7	.196/.267/.378	.181	.267	24	2	35%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Johan Mieses 2022 · AAA	27	37→32	55	48→50	41	.206/.272/.384	.178	.253	25	7	30%	6%	82	+0.5	.228/.302/.420	.192	.300	25	10	31%	8%	103	+1.9	.222/.313/.433	.210	.294	28	11	32%	10%	107	+0.8
✕Richie Shaffer 2016 · MLB	25	38→39	53→55	48→40	42	.206/.270/.382	.176	.268	21	5	32%	7%	79	+0.3	.192/.262/.341	.149	.281	18	5	36%	8%	66	-0.6	.168/.241/.298	.130	.257	16	3	39%	8%	43	-1.6
✕Nicholas Northcut 2023 · AA	24	33→37	58→60	47→30	35	.197/.246/.397	.200	.267	28	3	38%	5%	74	-0.1	.176/.221/.343	.167	.263	24	3	42%	4%	49	-1.8	.144/.188/.300	.155	.206	23	0	44%	4%	21	-2.2
✕Sandro Fabian 2023 · AAA	25	41→45	55	49→45	40	.224/.267/.402	.178	.254	24	4	23%	4%	84	+0.6	.229/.275/.394	.165	.260	20	6	21%	5%	85	+0.7	.229/.276/.390	.161	.257	19	5	19%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Jerry Gil 2008 · AAA	25	40→37	56→65	46→55	33	.221/.247/.412	.191	.276	25	10	31%	3%	78	+0.2	.194/.227/.320	.126	.281	14	11	35%	3%	44	-2.1	.132/.156/.232	.100	.195	10	13	38%	2%	-12	-1.9
✕Aristides Aquino 2020 · MLB	26	37→40	61→65	49→50	38	.217/.263/.428	.211	.265	31	9	32%	5%	89	+1.0	.221/.289/.436	.215	.281	30	9	32%	8%	102	+1.9	.193/.274/.380	.187	.267	25	6	36%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Curtis Terry 2022 · MLB	25	41→40	53→55	45→30	39	.218/.277/.391	.173	.273	21	4	28%	5%	85	+0.7	.223/.288/.379	.156	.267	18	5	23%	7%	86	+0.8	.214/.287/.362	.148	.245	16	0	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Lewin Díaz 2023 · MLB	26	37→46	57→60	48→30	42	.209/.263/.402	.193	.237	27	4	26%	6%	82	+0.5	.219/.284/.377	.158	.264	20	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	.218/.292/.354	.137	.263	18	2	24%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Sean Roby 2023 · AA	25	35→32	55	49→30	34	.191/.250/.367	.176	.306	25	4	45%	7%	68	-0.5	.189/.242/.340	.151	.305	21	4	43%	6%	56	-1.3	.164/.214/.294	.130	.251	19	0	42%	6%	30	-1.1
✕Dérmis Garcia 2023 · MLB	25	37→38	56→60	49→45	37	.198/.262/.380	.182	.307	25	8	43%	8%	76	+0.1	.192/.257/.349	.157	.291	21	7	39%	7%	66	-0.6	.163/.232/.303	.139	.236	20	4	39%	7%	40	-1.2
✕Brian Pellegrini 2010 · A	25	35→33	60	50→45	40	.205/.272/.412	.207	.262	29	9	34%	7%	89	+0.9	.222/.290/.423	.201	.278	28	7	31%	8%	99	+1.7	.217/.295/.441	.223	.241	34	2	27%	8%	103	+0.8
✕Carlos Rincon 2022 · AA	24	39	53→55	49→45	38	.208/.263/.376	.168	.291	22	6	36%	6%	76	+0.0	.215/.263/.366	.151	.312	18	7	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.174/.211/.299	.126	.266	14	0	40%	4%	28	-0.8
✕Darick Hall 2019 · AA	24	40→38	55	48→40	37	.217/.272/.399	.182	.270	24	3	30%	4%	85	+0.7	.204/.274/.361	.157	.268	18	4	30%	6%	76	+0.1	.219/.280/.401	.183	.261	25	2	27%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Mike Bianucci 2012 · AA	26	37→39	53→60	44→40	36	.207/.251/.374	.167	.261	22	4	31%	4%	69	-0.4	.220/.265/.390	.170	.272	23	4	28%	5%	79	+0.3	.226/.265/.434	.208	.258	31	2	26%	4%	89	+0.4
●Luken Baker 2023 · AAA	26	34→44	53→60	45→30	38	.195/.244/.356	.161	.248	24	2	32%	6%	63	-0.9	.217/.289/.427	.210	.261	30	2	29%	9%	100	+1.7	.209/.295/.433	.224	.243	32	0	29%	10%	102	+1.5
✕Yazy Arbelo 2013 · AA	25	35→31	58→60	39→30	40	.202/.269/.398	.197	.275	28	2	37%	8%	84	+0.6	.208/.273/.364	.156	.300	20	5	36%	7%	76	+0.1	.166/.250/.268	.101	.252	13	0	37%	8%	41	-0.4
✕Cody Decker 2012 · AA	25	40→39	59→65	46→30	39	.223/.279/.435	.213	.286	28	3	33%	6%	98	+1.6	.206/.268/.403	.197	.276	26	2	35%	7%	85	+0.7	.191/.257/.382	.191	.253	26	0	35%	7%	72	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)