Jhonkensy Noel — OGILVIE

Jhonkensy NoelRF Norfolk Tides

Age 25 R/R 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 7062vR 41

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .246 / .355

PA230

HR9

K%31

BB%6

BABIP229

ISO171

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT30

Whiff%

1018.1%

xwOBA

180.271

POWER55

Barrel%

6810.9

Avg EV

5389.3

Bat Spd

9077.9

EYE20

Chase%

1048.8%

SPEED50

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 351 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

149

202

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

305

263

◀L

ISO

268

167

◀◀L

BABIP

219

235

▶R

32.9%

32.7%

—

BB%

4.0%

5.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	260	227	38	7	0	7	16	83	14	6	4	167	265	291	555	123	225	32	6	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	260	218	53	11	0	10	25	58	14	6	4	243	358	431	789	188	285	22	10	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	209	185	39	8	0	5	11	56	4	5	1	211	270	335	605	124	256	27	5	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	209	178	51	12	0	6	18	39	4	5	1	287	365	455	820	169	317	19	9	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	3 teams	—	290	275	71	11	1	14	7	82	6	5	3	258	292	458	750	200	315	28	2	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	3 teams	—	290	265	90	14	1	19	17	62	6	5	3	340	392	615	1.007	275	382	21	6	435	191	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA	3 teams	—	548	501	87	22	2	22	33	199	10	3	0	174	239	357	596	184	229	36	6	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	AA	3 teams	—	548	485	111	26	2	32	49	150	10	3	0	229	312	489	801	260	257	27	9	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AAA	2 teams	—	620	567	107	19	0	22	36	182	14	2	3	189	254	339	593	150	232	29	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AAA	2 teams	—	620	549	119	24	0	30	54	155	14	2	3	217	303	424	727	208	243	25	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	—	482	444	102	19	3	26	25	145	12	1	0	230	289	462	751	232	277	30	5	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	2 teams	—	482	437	115	22	3	31	32	123	12	1	0	263	331	540	871	277	296	26	7	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	443	416	78	12	0	15	20	153	4	1	1	188	232	325	556	137	251	35	5	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	443	408	90	16	0	20	28	129	4	1	1	221	277	407	684	186	267	29	6	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	BAL	—	120	110	10	3	0	2	7	43	3	0	0	91	167	173	339	82	123	36	6	169	-12	-15	+0	+0	-1	+3	-1.3
YTD	25	AAA	BAL	—	120	107	13	4	0	3	10	36	3	0	0	121	217	243	460	121	147	30	8	217	24	-10	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
ROS	25	AAA	BAL	10%	230	211	39	7	1	9	13	72	4	1	0	185	246	355	601	171	224	31	6	260	57	-11	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.8
ROS	25	MLB	BAL	10%	23	22	4	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	364	581	182	228	30	4	253	52	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
FULL	25	AAA	BAL	—	143	132	14	4	0	3	8	50	3	0	0	106	175	205	379	98	139	35	6	183	-2	-16	+0	-0	-2	+4	-1.4
TOT	25	AAA	BAL	—	350	321	49	10	1	11	20	115	7	1	0	153	218	293	511	140	194	33	6	229	34	-26	+0	-1	-4	+10	-2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	BAL	35%	415	381	70	13	1	16	24	130	7	1	0	184	245	349	594	165	226	31	6	264	60	-19	+0	-2	-4	+12	-1.3
2027	26	MLB	BAL	35%	144	133	25	5	0	6	8	45	2	1	0	188	245	361	606	173	230	31	6	257	55	-7	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	518	482	92	15	1	26	26	167	7	1	0	191	243	388	631	197	226	32	5	274	68	-19	+0	-6	-12	+15	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	116	19	1	33	33	210	9	1	0	192	245	390	635	198	227	32	5	274	68	-24	+0	-7	-15	+18	-2.7
Career	—			—	3497	3207	631	118	8	136	185	1102	75	25	12	197	257	366	623	169	248	32	5	270	65	-139	+0	-7	-37	+99	-8.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	117	22	1	25	34	205	14	5	2	196	256	362	619	166	248	32	5	270	65	-26	+0	-1	-7	+18	-1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	260	218	53	11	0	10	25	58	14	6	4	243	358	431	789	188	285	22	10	352	128	+8	-0	—	—	+7	1.5
2019	18	ROK	AZL Indians Blue	—	209	178	51	12	0	6	18	39	4	5	1	287	365	455	820	169	317	19	9	351	126	+6	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2021	20	A+	Lake County Captains	—	111	100	28	3	0	8	9	31	2	3	1	280	351	550	901	270	328	28	8	393	159	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.1
2021	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	162	150	59	10	1	11	7	27	3	2	1	393	431	693	1.125	300	421	17	4	481	226	+23	+0	—	—	+5	2.8
2021	20	ROK	ACL Indians	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	1	0	1	200	294	267	561	67	273	24	6	266	62	-1	-0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2022	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	18	17	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	300	39	6	211	19	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	21	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	278	240	58	16	2	13	30	63	6	2	0	242	341	487	828	246	271	23	11	362	135	+11	+0	—	—	+8	2.0
2022	21	A+	Lake County Captains	—	252	228	50	9	0	19	18	80	4	1	0	219	288	509	797	289	237	32	7	343	121	+6	+0	—	—	+7	1.4
2023	22	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	585	519	114	23	0	27	49	145	14	1	3	220	304	420	724	200	249	25	8	322	104	+3	-1	—	—	+17	1.9
2023	22	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	35	30	5	1	0	3	5	10	0	1	0	167	286	500	786	333	118	29	14	341	119	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	23	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	198	179	39	7	1	13	13	63	5	0	0	218	289	486	775	268	250	32	7	337	116	+4	+0	-3	-5	+6	0.1
2024	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	284	258	76	15	2	18	19	60	7	1	0	295	359	578	937	283	322	21	7	407	169	+22	+0	—	—	+8	3.1
2025	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	153	148	24	2	0	6	4	52	0	0	0	162	184	297	482	135	198	34	3	211	20	-14	+0	-2	-5	+4	-1.6
2025	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	252	227	62	14	0	12	21	67	2	1	1	273	340	493	833	220	333	27	8	364	136	+10	-0	—	—	+7	1.8
2025	24	INTL	Toros del Este	—	38	33	4	0	0	2	3	10	2	0	0	121	237	303	540	182	95	26	8	251	50	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	351	327	63	9	1	19	17	115	5	0	0	193	244	401	644	208	226	33	5	282	74	-10	+0	-5	-10	+10	-1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	530	26	1	192	243	388	-6	-6	-0.8	-0.6
	/162	664	33	1	192	243	388	-7.1	-7.8	-1.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jhonkensy Noel (OGILVIE)	25	30	55	50	20	153/218/293	140	194	11	1	33%	6%	34	-2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richie Shaffer 2016 · MLB	25	38	54→55	47→40	43	206/272/387	181	266	22	5	32%	8%	82	+0.5	185/252/318	133	280	16	5	38%	7%	56	-1.3	161/230/272	111	256	13	3	41%	7%	31	-2.2
✕Ruben Cardenas 2023 · AAA	25	38→42	57→55	45→50	37	212/259/399	186	275	27	9	34%	6%	79	+0.3	223/281/395	172	280	22	11	28%	6%	88	+0.9	221/284/392	171	272	22	11	27%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Johan Mieses 2021 · AAA	26	37→33	51→55	50	40	202/258/351	149	255	20	7	30%	6%	67	-0.5	220/291/413	193	279	26	9	30%	7%	97	+1.5	205/284/416	211	247	30	7	31%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Josh Breaux 2023 · AAA	25	35→29	54→60	49→40	36	199/241/369	170	263	23	4	34%	5%	64	-0.8	199/245/348	149	270	20	4	34%	5%	59	-1.1	184/231/318	134	246	19	1	33%	5%	43	-0.7
✕Carlos Rincon 2022 · AA	24	39→37	55	50→45	38	210/264/386	176	286	24	6	35%	6%	78	+0.2	214/262/361	147	314	18	7	36%	5%	70	-0.3	176/212/298	122	281	13	0	41%	4%	28	-0.8
✕Curtis Terry 2022 · MLB	25	43	55	46→30	40	231/290/421	190	279	23	4	26%	5%	98	+1.6	230/294/399	169	270	20	5	23%	7%	94	+1.3	215/286/375	161	242	19	0	20%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Sandro Fabian 2023 · AAA	25	42→47	56→60	49→45	40	228/271/417	188	255	26	4	23%	4%	89	+1.0	232/278/399	167	262	20	6	20%	5%	87	+0.8	232/278/395	164	259	19	5	19%	5%	82	+0.4
✕Alex Jackson 2021 · MLB	25	34→35	58→60	48→30	31	192/257/389	197	290	28	5	43%	5%	78	+0.2	206/276/382	176	297	22	5	37%	6%	83	+0.6	194/265/368	174	267	22	2	35%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Sean Roby 2023 · AA	25	34→32	57→55	49→30	34	190/250/374	184	298	27	4	45%	7%	69	-0.4	190/243/338	148	302	20	4	42%	6%	56	-1.3	164/215/291	127	250	19	0	42%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Jerry Gil 2008 · AAA	25	40→37	56→60	46→55	33	221/249/409	188	277	24	10	31%	3%	78	+0.2	194/228/315	121	283	13	11	35%	4%	43	-2.2	131/155/229	98	194	10	13	38%	2%	-12	-2.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	38→40	55	48→50	41	209/273/391	182	282	24	10	35%	8%	83	+0.6	194/263/337	143	269	16	13	33%	8%	65	-0.7	175/255/305	131	241	15	14	32%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Kiel Roling 2012 · AA	25	40→38	53→55	41→30	36	214/262/384	170	298	22	3	36%	6%	76	+0.1	210/257/374	164	290	21	3	34%	6%	72	-0.2	201/247/364	163	270	21	1	34%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Nicholas Northcut 2023 · AA	24	33→36	58→60	47→30	34	194/244/393	199	267	28	3	39%	5%	72	-0.2	172/218/328	156	261	22	3	42%	5%	43	-2.2	140/185/281	141	205	21	0	44%	4%	15	-2.5
✕Darick Hall 2019 · AA	24	40	55	48→40	37	220/277/402	182	276	24	3	30%	5%	89	+0.9	201/273/352	151	267	16	4	30%	6%	73	-0.1	216/275/395	180	259	24	2	27%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	35→27	50	43→40	41	191/254/334	143	251	19	5	32%	7%	60	-1.0	195/273/339	144	246	19	5	28%	8%	70	-0.3	200/276/347	147	231	17	4	22%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Dérmis Garcia 2023 · MLB	25	37→38	55→60	49→45	37	198/262/376	178	305	24	8	42%	8%	75	-0.0	192/254/347	155	287	21	7	39%	7%	64	-0.8	164/228/307	144	232	21	4	39%	7%	40	-1.3
✕Lewin Díaz 2023 · MLB	26	37→44	58→60	48→30	42	211/266/408	198	241	27	3	27%	6%	85	+0.7	218/287/373	155	267	19	5	25%	8%	84	+0.6	211/291/346	135	257	18	2	25%	9%	77	+0.1
●Luken Baker 2022 · AA	25	35→45	56→65	45→30	40	201/259/387	186	261	26	3	34%	7%	76	+0.1	210/272/404	194	259	28	2	31%	7%	87	+0.8	212/295/439	227	249	32	0	29%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Wendell Rijo 2022 · AAA	26	40→41	55	48→50	39	219/270/401	182	272	25	9	30%	6%	85	+0.7	216/276/359	143	290	16	17	30%	6%	76	+0.1	215/276/365	150	278	15	27	28%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Joe DeCarlo 2019 · AA	25	40→37	52→55	44→30	41	209/281/373	164	281	20	3	32%	7%	82	+0.5	196/261/300	104	295	11	4	35%	7%	54	-1.4	155/222/207	52	250	6	0	38%	7%	11	-1.4