Nicholas Northcut3B
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 27
R/R
5'10" / 206 lbs
AA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†52
AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .227 / .340
PA250
HR10
K%41
BB%5
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
60→60
SPD
42→42
EYE
38→38
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.6peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-12M | $-25M | -$14M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 163 | 148 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .149 | .217 | .203 | .420 | .054 | .250 | 40 | 6 | .190 | 4 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 402 | 362 | 75 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 29 | 126 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .275 | .423 | .698 | .215 | .259 | 31 | 7 | .297 | 85 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 428 | 407 | 66 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 15 | 187 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .162 | .203 | .369 | .572 | .206 | .214 | 44 | 4 | .242 | 43 | -27 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -1.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | 2 teams | 291 | 274 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 146 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .150 | .188 | .274 | .462 | .124 | .266 | 50 | 3 | .199 | 11 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -2.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 425 | 400 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 19 | 165 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .140 | .191 | .318 | .508 | .177 | .167 | 39 | 4 | .222 | 28 | -35 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 250 | 233 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .180 | .230 | .352 | .582 | .172 | .262 | 41 | 5 | .253 | 52 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 9% | CIN | 333 | 308 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 132 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .182 | .236 | .341 | .577 | .159 | .265 | 40 | 5 | .259 | 56 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 19% | CIN | 352 | 325 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 136 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .188 | .244 | .351 | .594 | .163 | .267 | 39 | 6 | .262 | 59 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 29% | CIN | 363 | 335 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 21 | 139 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .188 | .244 | .346 | .591 | .158 | .267 | 38 | 6 | .262 | 59 | -17 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +10 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 40% | CIN | 358 | 330 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 137 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .185 | .242 | .336 | .579 | .152 | .266 | 38 | 6 | .260 | 57 | -17 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 49% | CIN | 345 | 318 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 134 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .240 | .336 | .576 | .154 | .264 | 39 | 6 | .255 | 53 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +10 | -1.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 57% | CIN | 318 | 293 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 125 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .177 | .235 | .321 | .556 | .143 | .262 | 39 | 6 | .249 | 49 | -18 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +9 | -1.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 75% | CIN | 277 | 256 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .176 | .233 | .320 | .553 | .145 | .260 | 40 | 6 | .243 | 44 | -18 | +0 | -5 | +1 | +8 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4305 | 3989 | 698 | 143 | 11 | 161 | 228 | 1707 | 54 | 6 | 0 | .175 | .229 | .337 | .567 | .162 | .250 | 40 | 5 | .249 | 48 | -251 | +1 | -20 | +15 | +122 | -13.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 602 | 106 | 22 | 2 | 24 | 34 | 258 | 8 | 1 | 0 | .176 | .229 | .339 | .568 | .163 | .253 | 40 | 5 | .249 | 48 | -38 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +18 | -2.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 163 | 142 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .232 | .323 | .317 | .640 | .085 | .327 | 28 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 402 | 345 | 90 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .261 | .356 | .513 | .869 | .252 | .302 | 23 | 11 | .375 | 145 | +21 | +0 | — | — | +11 | 3.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 106 | 101 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .208 | .245 | .376 | .622 | .168 | .283 | 35 | 4 | .275 | 68 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 322 | 296 | 66 | 13 | 0 | 26 | 21 | 114 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .223 | .286 | .530 | .816 | .307 | .256 | 35 | 7 | .353 | 128 | +10 | +0 | — | — | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .111 | .158 | .111 | .269 | .000 | .167 | 32 | 5 | .132 | -41 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 272 | 250 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 102 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .216 | .269 | .392 | .661 | .176 | .310 | 38 | 5 | .289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 425 | 391 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 128 | 6 | 0 | 0 | .192 | .256 | .440 | .696 | .248 | .207 | 30 | 7 | .305 | 91 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Nicholas Northcut (OGILVIE) | 27 | 20 | 60 | 42 | 38 | .177/.227/.340 | .163 | .262 | 10 | 1 | 41% | 5% | 52 | -0.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Seby Zavala 2022 · MLB |
28 | 32→39 | 52→50 | 42→40 | 34 | .179/.238/.334 | .155 | .284 | 21 | 4 | 44% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .204/.275/.339 | .135 | .321 | 15 | 4 | 38% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .193/.272/.319 | .126 | .301 | 14 | 1 | 38% | 8% | 62 | -0.4 |
|
✕Tristan Gray 2023 · AAA |
27 | 35→34 | 55 | 45→40 | 34 | .199/.245/.373 | .174 | .271 | 24 | 6 | 37% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .194/.249/.358 | .164 | .267 | 21 | 4 | 35% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .189/.248/.343 | .154 | .256 | 19 | 2 | 33% | 6% | 58 | -0.9 |
|
✕Mike Olt 2016 · MLB |
27 | 34→41 | 51→55 | 39→40 | 40 | .188/.254/.341 | .153 | .269 | 20 | 3 | 37% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .205/.273/.352 | .147 | .298 | 18 | 3 | 35% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .190/.267/.328 | .138 | .276 | 17 | 0 | 35% | 9% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Eddy Rodriguez 2013 · AAA |
27 | 36→30 | 49→50 | 45→30 | 34 | .193/.234/.329 | .135 | .272 | 18 | 4 | 36% | 4% | 50 | -1.7 | .186/.222/.297 | .111 | .277 | 12 | 3 | 36% | 4% | 36 | -2.7 | .164/.196/.254 | .090 | .258 | 9 | 0 | 39% | 3% | 11 | -1.6 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA |
26 | 35→28 | 49→50 | 43→40 | 41 | .191/.255/.331 | .140 | .253 | 18 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .195/.273/.341 | .146 | .245 | 19 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Devin Harris 2015 · AA |
27 | 38→39 | 51→55 | 43→40 | 37 | .205/.251/.370 | .165 | .274 | 19 | 3 | 33% | 5% | 68 | -0.5 | .212/.257/.366 | .154 | .289 | 18 | 6 | 32% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .198/.244/.354 | .156 | .261 | 19 | 4 | 32% | 5% | 57 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jeremy Eierman 2023 · AA |
26 | 34→26 | 54→55 | 45 | 31 | .188/.239/.359 | .171 | .296 | 24 | 10 | 44% | 5% | 61 | -1.0 | .184/.240/.329 | .145 | .287 | 20 | 9 | 41% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .152/.215/.274 | .121 | .229 | 19 | 7 | 42% | 5% | 26 | -1.2 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA |
27 | 35→37 | 49→50 | 50 | 35 | .190/.239/.328 | .138 | .268 | 18 | 9 | 36% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .214/.262/.346 | .132 | .279 | 14 | 11 | 28% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.267/.343 | .129 | .269 | 14 | 10 | 25% | 5% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Brian Serven 2022 · AAA |
27 | 35 | 49→50 | 46→30 | 38 | .191/.245/.335 | .144 | .238 | 18 | 5 | 29% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .196/.257/.319 | .123 | .257 | 15 | 4 | 29% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .182/.252/.278 | .096 | .251 | 12 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 42 | -0.9 |
|
✕Brandon Waring 2014 · AAA |
28 | 35→41 | 54→55 | 45→40 | 37 | .194/.259/.369 | .175 | .277 | 23 | 2 | 38% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .189/.254/.341 | .152 | .324 | 18 | 5 | 45% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .157/.225/.298 | .141 | .292 | 16 | 2 | 49% | 6% | 37 | -1.8 |
|
✕Landon Stephens 2023 · AA |
25 | 32→29 | 51→55 | 42→40 | 38 | .174/.254/.327 | .153 | .277 | 20 | 5 | 43% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .190/.273/.382 | .192 | .303 | 27 | 5 | 44% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .166/.260/.397 | .231 | .247 | 35 | 2 | 47% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Matt Spring 2012 · AA |
27 | 36 | 50 | 44→45 | 35 | .190/.241/.341 | .151 | .284 | 18 | 4 | 39% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .188/.243/.335 | .147 | .298 | 18 | 4 | 41% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .167/.219/.320 | .153 | .245 | 20 | 0 | 40% | 5% | 40 | -0.8 |
|
✕Hunter Owen 2021 · AAA |
27 | 41→38 | 53→55 | 43→40 | 33 | .213/.273/.381 | .168 | .309 | 22 | 5 | 37% | 4% | 82 | +0.5 | .203/.260/.350 | .147 | .315 | 19 | 5 | 40% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .174/.223/.318 | .144 | .265 | 23 | 3 | 43% | 4% | 42 | -1.4 |
|
✕Kiel Roling 2013 · AA |
26 | 38→36 | 51→55 | 42→30 | 36 | .204/.251/.356 | .152 | .286 | 20 | 3 | 36% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .213/.262/.374 | .161 | .285 | 20 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 74 | -0.1 | .200/.251/.369 | .169 | .254 | 22 | 0 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.4 |
|
✕Adam Brett Walker 2018 · AAA |
26 | 34→44 | 53→55 | 48→45 | 31 | .185/.229/.353 | .169 | .294 | 22 | 8 | 45% | 5% | 55 | -1.4 | .195/.253/.344 | .149 | .323 | 18 | 8 | 42% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .150/.242/.291 | .141 | .267 | 15 | 3 | 46% | 10% | 43 | -0.5 |
|
✕Brandon Hicks 2013 · MLB |
27 | 38→40 | 51→50 | 46→50 | 39 | .198/.263/.355 | .157 | .292 | 19 | 10 | 38% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .193/.264/.334 | .141 | .300 | 16 | 8 | 39% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .174/.250/.292 | .119 | .273 | 14 | 5 | 39% | 8% | 44 | -1.1 |
|
✕Hendrik Clementina 2023 · AAA |
26 | 38 | 51→50 | 48→30 | 31 | .198/.241/.345 | .147 | .309 | 21 | 4 | 42% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .213/.264/.338 | .125 | .323 | 14 | 6 | 37% | 5% | 65 | -0.7 | .221/.278/.310 | .089 | .328 | 5 | 0 | 32% | 5% | 61 | -0.2 |
|
✕Craig Dedelow 2022 · AA |
27 | 35→34 | 48→50 | 43→45 | 35 | .186/.240/.326 | .140 | .284 | 17 | 5 | 40% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .185/.258/.341 | .156 | .335 | 19 | 11 | 47% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .157/.241/.320 | .162 | .292 | 21 | 14 | 50% | 9% | 50 | -1.6 |
|
✕Chris Maples 2007 · AAA |
27 | 41→42 | 53→50 | 42→45 | 36 | .218/.260/.392 | .174 | .287 | 21 | 5 | 32% | 4% | 78 | +0.2 | .206/.258/.328 | .122 | .306 | 13 | 8 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .155/.219/.194 | .039 | .273 | 0 | 7 | 40% | 6% | 6 | -1.6 |
|
✕Matthew Allegra 2007 · AA |
26 | 38→37 | 49→50 | 44→40 | 36 | .195/.252/.339 | .145 | .297 | 17 | 5 | 39% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .206/.260/.354 | .148 | .285 | 16 | 5 | 32% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .196/.247/.351 | .155 | .253 | 16 | 2 | 29% | 5% | 58 | -0.8 |