Nicholas Northcut
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AA/A+BOS | 428 | .219/.276/.491 | 30 | 1 | 50 | — | .163/.206/.370 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA/AACIN | 291 | .209/.261/.373 | 10 | 0 | 25 | — | .161/.202/.279 |
| 2024 | 25 | AACIN | 425 | .192/.256/.440 | 26 | 0 | 31 | — | .142/.193/.312 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 142 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 317 | 640 | 85 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 294 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 402 | 345 | 90 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 356 | 513 | 869 | 252 | 302 | 23 | 11 | 375 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 106 | 101 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 245 | 376 | 622 | 168 | 283 | 35 | 4 | 275 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 322 | 296 | 66 | 13 | 0 | 26 | 21 | 114 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 286 | 530 | 816 | 307 | 256 | 35 | 7 | 353 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 111 | 269 | 167 | 32 | 5 | 132 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 272 | 250 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 102 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 269 | 392 | 661 | 176 | 310 | 38 | 5 | 289 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 391 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 128 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 256 | 440 | 696 | 248 | 207 | 30 | 7 | 305 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 148 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 217 | 203 | 420 | 54 | 246 | 40 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 402 | 361 | 73 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 127 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 273 | 402 | 674 | 199 | 251 | 32 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 106 | 102 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 157 | 189 | 275 | 463 | 118 | 255 | 42 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 322 | 304 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 21 | 13 | 141 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 211 | 401 | 612 | 237 | 202 | 44 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 111 | 269 | 163 | 37 | 5 | 110 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 272 | 255 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 129 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 205 | 290 | 495 | 125 | 271 | 47 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 400 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 156 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 193 | 312 | 505 | 170 | 168 | 37 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 148 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 217 | 203 | 420 | 54 | 250 | 40 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 142 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 323 | 317 | 640 | 85 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 294 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 402 | 361 | 73 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 127 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 273 | 402 | 674 | 199 | 259 | 32 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 402 | 345 | 90 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 46 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 356 | 513 | 869 | 252 | 302 | 23 | 11 | 375 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 407 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 15 | 187 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 206 | 371 | 577 | 206 | 219 | 44 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 428 | 397 | 87 | 18 | 0 | 30 | 25 | 151 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 276 | 491 | 767 | 272 | 264 | 35 | 6 | 333 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 273 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 137 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 199 | 275 | 473 | 117 | 271 | 47 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 268 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 108 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 261 | 373 | 634 | 164 | 299 | 37 | 5 | 279 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 400 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 156 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 193 | 312 | 505 | 170 | 173 | 37 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 391 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 128 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 256 | 440 | 696 | 248 | 207 | 30 | 7 | 305 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 163 | 149 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 217 | 201 | 419 | 54 | 246 | 40 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 402 | 364 | 73 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 30 | 127 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 273 | 398 | 671 | 198 | 251 | 32 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 404 | 67 | 12 | 0 | 24 | 15 | 187 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 206 | 374 | 579 | 208 | 215 | 44 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 275 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 137 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 199 | 273 | 471 | 116 | 264 | 47 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 397 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 156 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 193 | 315 | 508 | 171 | 168 | 37 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 397 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 156 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 193 | 315 | 508 | 171 | 168 | 37 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1709 | 1589 | 262 | 61 | 4 | 65 | 83 | 672 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 218 | 331 | 549 | 166 | 228 | 39 | 5 | 235 | 45 | -112 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +37 | -7.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 100 | 23 | 2 | 25 | 32 | 256 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 220 | 334 | 554 | 169 | 229 | 39 | 5 | 235 | 45 | -43 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 425 PAwOBA .295 → .214 (−81)K% 30.1% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.12% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.35% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.17% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.70% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.89% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 7.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .295 → .214; ISO .248 → .170; BABIP .207 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 272 PAwOBA .285 → .212 (−73)K% 37.5% → 47.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 47.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.15% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.27% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.46% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 8.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.38% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .212; ISO .176 → .127; BABIP .310 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 19 PAwOBA .129 → .110 (−19)K% 31.6% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 16.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .129 → .110; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 322 PAwOBA .342 → .254 (−88)K% 35.4% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.40% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.52% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.84% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 12.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 12.60% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .342 → .254; ISO .307 → .240; BABIP .256 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 106 PAwOBA .267 → .204 (−63)K% 34.9% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.91% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.77% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 18.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷1.066 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.004 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.99% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .267 → .204; ISO .168 → .119; BABIP .283 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 402 PAwOBA .370 → .288 (−81)K% 22.6% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.35% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 13.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.60% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 9.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.69% | ÷0.858 | ×0.800 | — | — | 6.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .370 → .288; ISO .252 → .208; BABIP .302 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGCL Red Sox · 163 PAwOBA .290 → .192 (−98)K% 27.6% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 18.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.81% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .290 → .192; ISO .085 → .053; BABIP .327 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).