Josh Breaux
C Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AAPHI | 148 | .200/.260/.370 | 6 | 0 | 25 | — | .159/.199/.274 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AAPHI | 179 | .222/.309/.342 | 3 | 0 | 46 | — | .189/.253/.280 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAACWS | 49 | .186/.255/.302 | 1 | 0 | 17 | — | .182/.234/.295 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 10 | .203/.267/.322 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBCWS | 41 | .202/.266/.319 | 1 | 0 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 216 | 199 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 326 | 518 | 843 | 246 | 320 | 27 | 7 | 366 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 106 | 100 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 276 | 500 | 776 | 260 | 261 | 25 | 4 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 276 | 250 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 312 | 504 | 817 | 252 | 280 | 26 | 8 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 172 | 159 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 297 | 403 | 699 | 164 | 308 | 28 | 7 | 311 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 231 | 211 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 273 | 436 | 709 | 232 | 224 | 28 | 8 | 312 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 49 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 327 | 524 | 850 | 310 | 167 | 16 | 10 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 97 | 93 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 309 | 548 | 858 | 269 | 306 | 25 | 4 | 372 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 59 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 271 | 278 | 549 | 74 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 254 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 51 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 196 | 292 | 488 | 146 | 179 | 35 | 6 | 219 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 97 | 87 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 295 | 414 | 709 | 184 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 308 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 132 | 115 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 321 | 330 | 651 | 104 | 304 | 27 | 11 | 298 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 47 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 277 | 372 | 649 | 163 | 286 | 30 | 4 | 291 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 255 | 302 | 558 | 116 | 259 | 33 | 8 | 244 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 216 | 204 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 237 | 377 | 615 | 181 | 267 | 38 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 106 | 101 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 248 | 416 | 663 | 198 | 256 | 29 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 276 | 257 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 243 | 385 | 628 | 187 | 247 | 36 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 172 | 164 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 227 | 305 | 532 | 116 | 264 | 34 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 231 | 217 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 216 | 327 | 544 | 161 | 208 | 34 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 409 | 674 | 227 | 148 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 97 | 94 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 247 | 415 | 662 | 191 | 271 | 30 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 59 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 186 | 228 | 415 | 70 | 217 | 34 | 3 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 51 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 157 | 204 | 361 | 82 | 163 | 41 | 4 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 97 | 90 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 221 | 311 | 532 | 133 | 235 | 35 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 132 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 252 | 250 | 502 | 67 | 274 | 32 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 47 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 255 | 364 | 619 | 159 | 264 | 36 | 2 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 234 | 295 | 529 | 114 | 227 | 39 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 216 | 204 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 237 | 377 | 615 | 181 | 263 | 38 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 216 | 199 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 326 | 518 | 843 | 246 | 320 | 27 | 7 | 366 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 359 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 129 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 239 | 390 | 629 | 189 | 252 | 34 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 382 | 350 | 87 | 20 | 0 | 23 | 26 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 302 | 503 | 805 | 254 | 275 | 26 | 7 | 346 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 380 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 137 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 221 | 316 | 537 | 142 | 230 | 34 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 370 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 113 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 283 | 422 | 705 | 203 | 261 | 28 | 8 | 311 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 205 | 195 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 234 | 359 | 593 | 164 | 227 | 28 | 4 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 205 | 189 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 302 | 466 | 768 | 222 | 262 | 23 | 7 | 338 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 139 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 199 | 273 | 472 | 115 | 220 | 37 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 148 | 135 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 260 | 370 | 631 | 170 | 244 | 30 | 7 | 277 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 164 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 253 | 280 | 533 | 91 | 279 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 158 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 309 | 342 | 651 | 120 | 299 | 27 | 9 | 296 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 234 | 295 | 529 | 114 | 280 | 39 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 255 | 302 | 558 | 116 | 259 | 33 | 8 | 244 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 216 | 203 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 237 | 379 | 617 | 182 | 267 | 38 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 361 | 72 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 129 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 239 | 388 | 627 | 188 | 249 | 34 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 377 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 137 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 221 | 318 | 539 | 143 | 232 | 34 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 205 | 193 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 234 | 363 | 597 | 166 | 226 | 28 | 4 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 140 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 199 | 271 | 470 | 114 | 210 | 37 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 163 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 92 | 271 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 234 | 283 | 517 | 109 | 227 | 39 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 140 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 199 | 271 | 470 | 114 | 210 | 37 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 163 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 92 | 271 | 33 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 49 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 234 | 283 | 517 | 109 | 227 | 39 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 200 | 182 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 266 | 320 | 586 | 117 | 266 | 28 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 267 | 322 | 589 | 119 | 267 | 30 | 10 | 265 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 151 | 138 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 265 | 316 | 581 | 115 | 265 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 266 | 319 | 584 | 116 | 266 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 105 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 55 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 111 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 291 | 535 | 106 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 55 | -28 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1838 | 1719 | 325 | 60 | 6 | 61 | 93 | 611 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 189 | 236 | 337 | 574 | 148 | 249 | 33 | 5 | 249 | 55 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 22 | 33 | 216 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 237 | 339 | 576 | 150 | 249 | 33 | 5 | 249 | 55 | -28 | +2 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 49 PAwOBA .243 → .194 (−49)K% 32.7% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 16.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .194; ISO .116 → .086; BABIP .259 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 132 PAwOBA .293 → .238 (−55)K% 26.5% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.52% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 21.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .293 → .238; ISO .104 → .083; BABIP .304 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 47 PAwOBA .283 → .231 (−52)K% 29.8% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.26% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 2.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 3.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 16.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 5.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 3.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .231; ISO .163 → .125; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 97 PAwOBA .306 → .230 (−76)K% 27.8% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.84% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.25% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 18.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.022 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.137 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .230; ISO .184 → .124; BABIP .276 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 51 PAwOBA .213 → .160 (−53)K% 35.3% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 12.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .160; ISO .146 → .099; BABIP .179 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 97 PAwOBA .360 → .282 (−78)K% 24.7% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.74% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.12% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 2.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 20.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.956 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.14% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.57% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .360 → .282; ISO .269 → .193; BABIP .306 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 59 PAwOBA .240 → .178 (−63)K% 25.4% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.42% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 3.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 1.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.17% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .240 → .178; ISO .074 → .058; BABIP .263 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 49 PAwOBA .361 → .280 (−80)K% 16.3% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.33% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.029 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 10.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 8.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .361 → .280; ISO .310 → .223; BABIP .167 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).