Victor Vargas
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%22.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | 10 | 9 | 45 | 208 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 90% | 4.5 | 11.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.00 | 5.95 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies West | 10 | 9 | 45 | 208 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 90% | 4.5 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 6.00 | 4.63 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 7 | 6 | 25 | 100 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 3.6 | 10.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 1.44 | 3.64 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 7 | 6 | 25 | 100 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 3.6 | 15.0% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 1.0% | 1.44 | 2.90 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 15 | 87 | 387 | 88 | 31 | 11 | 68% | 4.0 | 17.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.98 | 4.88 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 15 | 87 | 387 | 88 | 31 | 11 | 68% | 4.0 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 5.98 | 3.79 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 54 | 207 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 77% | 4.1 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 3.35 | 4.75 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 10 | 54 | 207 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 77% | 4.1 | 18.8% | 4.3% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 36 | 162 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 4.0 | 7.7% | 11.3% | -3.6% | 7.7% | 6.69 | 8.12 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 36 | 162 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 4.0 | 9.3% | 9.9% | -0.6% | 5.6% | 6.69 | 6.82 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.6% | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 1.62 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.6% | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 1.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 17 | 73 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.6 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 51 | 256 | 1101 | 152 | 88 | 48 | 81% | 4.1 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.92 | 5.31 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 859 | 119 | 69 | 37 | 81% | 4.1 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.92 | 5.31 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.44 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 20 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 76 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 75 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 75 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 74 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 74 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 73 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 73 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 73 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 73 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 72 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 72 |
| Will Sanders R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.48 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 259 | 72 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 72 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 72 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 149 | 72 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 71 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 71 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 71 |