Victor Vargas — OGILVIE

Victor Vargas P Dayton Dragons

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%19.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	10	9	45	208	34	11	8	90%	4.5	11.1%	6.6%	4.5%	5.4%	6.00	5.95	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	10	9	45	208	34	11	8	90%	4.5	16.3%	5.3%	11.1%	3.8%	6.00	4.63	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	7	6	25	100	15	4	1	86%	3.6	10.2%	5.0%	5.2%	1.4%	1.44	3.64	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	7	6	25	100	15	4	1	86%	3.6	15.0%	4.0%	11.0%	1.0%	1.44	2.90	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	15	87	387	88	31	11	68%	4.0	17.3%	9.2%	8.2%	3.8%	5.98	4.88	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	15	87	387	88	31	11	68%	4.0	22.7%	8.0%	14.7%	2.8%	5.98	3.79	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	10	54	207	39	9	5	77%	4.1	15.2%	7.0%	8.2%	3.2%	3.35	4.47	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	10	54	207	39	9	5	77%	4.1	18.8%	4.3%	14.5%	2.4%	3.35	3.36	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	36	162	15	16	9	100%	4.0	7.7%	11.3%	-3.6%	8.1%	6.69	8.32	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	36	162	15	16	9	100%	4.0	7.7%	11.3%	-3.6%	8.1%	6.69	8.32	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	36	162	15	16	9	100%	4.0	9.3%	9.9%	-0.6%	5.6%	6.69	6.82	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	2	2	9	37	8	1	0	100%	4.5	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	1.00	1.62	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	2	2	9	37	8	1	0	100%	4.5	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	1.00	1.62	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	2	2	9	37	8	1	0	100%	4.5	21.6%	2.7%	18.9%	0.0%	1.00	1.66	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	3.1%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	3	3	20	84	17	8	3	100%	6.7	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.74	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	9	38	8	4	1	100%	4.5	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	9	36	7	4	1	100%	8.6	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	93	23	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		63	51	256	1101	152	88	47	81%	4.1	13.8%	8.0%	5.8%	4.3%	4.92	5.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	859	119	69	37	81%	4.1	13.8%	8.0%	5.8%	4.3%	4.92	5.29	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.74	20.0%	10.2%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	77
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	76
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	76
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	76
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	75
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	75
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	75
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	75
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	74
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	73
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	73