Kristian Robinson

RF Reno Aces

Age 26 R/R 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2293MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AA/INTL2 orgs	498	.231/.349/.367	12	19	68	—	.178/.271/.270
2025	24	AAA/AAARI	512	.254/.375/.447	17	34	79	—	.208/.302/.343
2026	25	AAAARI	501	.268/.376/.442	15	22	91	—	.240/.321/.373
2027PROJ10% MLB	26	MLBARI	16	.224/.309/.355	0	1	84	0.0
2028PROJ25% MLB	27	MLBARI	56	.224/.308/.355	1	2	84	0.0
2029PROJ34% MLB	28	MLBARI	87	.223/.307/.353	2	3	83	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV98

Speed93

BB%79

Chase%78

K%21

Whiff%13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsTroy Stokes Jr. (age 25) · Alerick Soularie (age 25) · Jeter Downs (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .309 / .355

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%12

BABIP337

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	17	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	256	222	62	12	0	7	27	67	4	12	8	279	368	428	796	149	364	26	11	354	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A	Kane County Cougars	—	102	92	20	3	1	5	8	30	2	3	2	217	294	435	729	217	263	29	8	322	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	17	16	4	1	0	2	1	7	0	0	1	250	294	688	982	438	286	41	6	415	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	39	34	9	0	0	2	4	13	1	2	3	265	359	441	800	176	368	33	10	360	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	189	156	45	6	3	9	24	58	8	20	3	288	410	538	948	250	400	31	13	414	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	—	27	27	8	1	1	1	0	8	0	1	0	296	296	519	815	222	389	30	0	352	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	419	351	75	13	1	11	63	150	3	10	4	214	338	350	689	137	333	36	15	316	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	79	69	22	4	1	1	8	22	2	9	2	319	405	449	854	130	457	28	10	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	178	145	38	8	2	6	31	43	1	10	0	262	395	469	864	207	330	24	17	383	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	334	280	70	13	3	11	46	101	4	24	8	250	364	436	799	186	343	30	14	354	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	501	421	113	18	5	15	67	145	6	22	5	268	376	442	818	173	370	29	13	362	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	17	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	256	232	45	8	0	5	17	97	4	12	8	194	261	293	554	99	287	38	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	102	95	16	2	1	4	5	41	2	3	2	168	225	337	562	168	243	40	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	17	16	3	1	0	1	1	9	0	0	1	188	235	438	673	250	219	53	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	39	35	6	0	0	1	3	18	1	2	3	171	256	257	514	86	337	46	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	189	164	36	5	3	6	16	77	8	20	3	220	319	396	715	177	354	41	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	—	27	27	5	1	0	1	0	11	0	1	0	185	185	333	519	148	283	41	0	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	419	370	66	11	1	7	44	180	3	10	4	178	271	270	541	92	316	43	11	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	178	153	37	7	2	5	23	50	1	10	0	242	345	412	756	170	318	28	13	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	334	294	56	10	3	6	32	127	4	24	8	190	279	306	585	116	290	38	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	501	442	106	16	5	11	47	174	6	22	5	240	321	373	695	133	354	35	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	256	232	45	8	0	5	17	97	4	12	8	194	261	293	554	99	301	38	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	256	222	62	12	0	7	27	67	4	12	8	279	368	428	796	149	364	26	11	354	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	102	95	16	2	1	4	5	41	2	3	2	168	225	337	562	168	240	40	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	—	102	92	20	3	1	5	8	30	2	3	2	217	294	435	729	217	263	29	8	322	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	272	243	50	6	3	9	19	115	9	23	7	206	288	366	654	160	342	42	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	4 teams	—	272	233	66	8	4	14	29	86	9	23	7	283	384	532	916	249	388	32	11	400	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	498	439	78	13	1	8	52	214	5	19	6	178	272	267	539	89	320	43	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	498	420	97	17	2	12	71	172	5	19	6	231	349	367	715	136	357	35	14	327	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	447	92	16	5	11	55	177	5	34	8	206	300	338	638	132	307	35	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	512	425	108	21	5	17	77	144	5	34	8	254	375	447	822	193	338	28	15	365	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	501	442	106	16	5	11	47	174	6	22	5	240	321	373	695	133	364	35	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	501	421	113	18	5	15	67	145	6	22	5	268	376	442	818	173	370	29	13	362	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	17	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	256	233	45	8	0	5	17	97	4	12	8	193	261	292	553	99	287	38	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	102	94	16	2	1	4	5	41	2	3	2	170	225	340	566	170	243	40	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	272	242	50	6	3	9	19	115	9	23	7	207	288	368	656	161	336	42	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	498	438	78	13	1	8	52	214	5	19	6	178	272	267	539	89	316	43	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	447	92	16	5	11	55	177	5	34	8	206	300	338	638	132	300	35	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	501	443	106	16	5	11	47	174	6	22	5	239	321	372	694	133	354	35	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	498	438	78	13	1	8	52	214	5	19	6	178	272	267	539	89	316	43	10	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	447	92	16	5	11	55	177	5	34	8	206	300	338	638	132	300	35	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	501	443	106	16	5	11	47	174	6	22	5	239	321	372	694	133	354	35	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	380	335	73	12	3	8	38	131	4	14	3	218	303	344	647	127	325	34	10	293	84	-7	+2	+2	-4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	224	309	355	664	132	337	31	12	299	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	25%	225	199	43	7	2	5	22	76	2	8	2	218	303	344	647	127	322	34	10	293	84	-4	+1	+1	-2	+5	0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	253	224	48	8	2	5	25	85	2	8	2	217	301	342	644	125	319	34	10	291	83	-5	+1	+0	-3	+5	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	38%	263	234	50	9	2	5	25	87	2	7	2	216	299	339	638	123	315	33	10	289	82	-6	+1	-0	-3	+6	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	25%	56	49	11	2	1	1	6	19	1	2	0	224	308	355	664	132	334	34	11	299	84	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	87	77	17	3	1	2	9	29	1	3	1	223	307	353	660	130	330	33	10	298	83	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	38%	101	89	20	4	1	2	10	34	1	3	1	222	304	349	654	128	326	34	10	295	82	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	244	215	48	9	3	5	25	82	3	8	2	223	313	363	676	140	333	34	10	297	75	-5	+1	+0	-3	+5	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	128	24	8	13	67	218	8	21	5	223	314	361	675	138	333	34	10	297	75	-13	+2	+1	-7	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3037	2693	557	90	22	66	282	1119	38	142	43	207	291	330	621	123	322	37	9	279	75	-18	+3	+2	-10	+19	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	119	19	5	14	60	239	8	30	9	207	290	330	620	123	321	37	9	279	75	-13	+2	+1	-7	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 501 PAwOBA .356 → .303 (−53)K% 28.9% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	34.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.37%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.39%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.15%
Singles /BIP	27.17%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.047	×1.018	26.94%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.047	×1.018	5.77%
Triples /BIP	1.81%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.047	×1.018	1.87%
Home runs /BIP	5.43%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .356 → .303; ISO .173 → .138; BABIP .370 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 334 PAwOBA .349 → .261 (−88)K% 30.2% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.24%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	37.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.47%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×0.998	9.47%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	1.04%
Singles /BIP	24.02%	÷1.041	×0.920	×1.015	×0.998	21.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.26%	÷1.119	×0.840	×1.015	×0.998	5.53%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷0.985	×0.940	×1.015	×0.998	1.62%
Home runs /BIP	6.15%	÷1.333	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.68%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .349 → .261; ISO .186 → .122; BABIP .343 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 178 PAwOBA .376 → .330 (−47)K% 24.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.16%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	28.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.42%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.033	12.88%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.55%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.043	×1.033	21.74%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷1.069	×0.830	×1.043	×1.033	6.56%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷0.902	×0.970	×1.043	×1.033	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×1.033	4.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .376 → .330; ISO .207 → .180; BABIP .330 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 419 PAwOBA .310 → .247 (−63)K% 35.8% → 42.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.80%	÷1.018	×1.220	—	—	42.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.04%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.012	10.38%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.63%
Singles /BIP	24.88%	÷0.974	×0.920	×1.029	×1.012	24.48%
Doubles /BIP	6.47%	÷0.966	×0.840	×1.029	×1.012	5.86%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.987	×0.940	×1.029	×1.012	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	5.47%	÷1.229	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.61%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .310 → .247; ISO .137 → .097; BABIP .333 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 189 PAwOBA .404 → .312 (−93)K% 30.7% → 40.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.69%	÷1.019	×1.360	—	—	40.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.17%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×0.990	8.42%
HBP% /PA	4.23%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.27%
Singles /BIP	27.55%	÷1.060	×0.920	×1.050	×0.990	24.85%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.029	×0.830	×1.050	×0.990	5.13%
Triples /BIP	3.06%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.050	×0.990	3.22%
Home runs /BIP	9.18%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	×0.990	7.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .404 → .312; ISO .250 → .191; BABIP .400 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 39 PAwOBA .350 → .262 (−88)K% 33.3% → 45.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.987	×1.350	—	—	45.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷1.038	×0.710	—	×0.998	7.00%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	2.07%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.980	×0.910	—	×0.998	30.89%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.947	×0.830	—	×0.998	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.820	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷0.952	×0.830	—	×0.998	8.29%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .350 → .262; ISO .176 → .129; BABIP .368 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 27 PAwOBA .341 → .207 (−134)K% 29.6% → 42.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.63%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	42.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.620	—	×0.965	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.033	×0.820	—	×0.965	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.987	×0.720	—	×0.965	3.71%
Triples /BIP	5.26%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×0.965	3.18%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷0.918	×0.780	—	×0.965	4.32%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .341 → .207; ISO .222 → .132; BABIP .389 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 17 PAwOBA .401 → .226 (−175)K% 41.2% → 50.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	41.18%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	50.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.922	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.59%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.054	×0.920	—	×1.027	9.97%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.008	×0.840	—	×1.027	9.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.940	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	22.22%	÷1.637	×0.800	—	×1.027	11.15%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .401 → .226; ISO .438 → .207; BABIP .286 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	259	5	8	218	298	343	-3	+2	-0.0	0.0
/162	664	14	21	-7.1	+5.1	-0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kristian Robinson (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	216/301/341	125	325	3	6	34%	10%	84	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	41→40	46→50	53→55	45	203/286/334	131	286	13	16	32%	8%	77	-0.3	201/278/310	109	271	10	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	161/249/251	90	216	7	20	27%	8%	42	-1.3
✕Alerick Soularie 2024 · AA	25	40	45	55→60	46	198/284/317	119	288	13	23	34%	10%	72	-0.7	207/283/318	111	293	11	24	31%	8%	72	-0.7	172/252/257	85	238	9	42	30%	8%	49	-0.6
✕Jeter Downs 2024 · MLB	26	35→41	45→50	54→55	44	181/268/300	119	260	14	22	34%	9%	63	-1.4	217/297/361	144	298	14	21	30%	8%	87	+0.4	210/292/375	165	286	15	28	30%	8%	89	+0.2
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	37→34	50	51→50	45	191/282/348	157	275	18	12	35%	10%	79	-0.2	183/265/327	144	301	17	12	42%	8%	68	-1.0	158/244/297	139	268	18	12	45%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Daz Cameron 2023 · MLB	26	43→48	45→50	55	41	212/273/337	125	298	12	20	32%	7%	72	-0.7	219/287/364	145	286	16	22	28%	8%	84	+0.1	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	41	45→50	48→50	46	202/290/321	119	285	13	9	32%	9%	76	-0.4	213/301/356	143	297	17	5	32%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/369	162	278	20	1	31%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Matt Gorski 2024 · AAA	26	36→34	51→55	56→55	37	196/245/348	152	264	20	21	34%	6%	65	-1.2	202/250/363	161	283	20	16	35%	6%	70	-0.9	190/239/355	165	267	20	14	36%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	41	45→50	55→60	37	203/257/327	124	295	12	21	34%	6%	64	-1.3	207/284/329	122	306	10	26	33%	7%	75	-0.5	192/284/324	133	286	10	39	34%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	39→42	44→45	54→50	42	196/268/311	115	273	12	15	32%	7%	65	-1.2	197/262/306	109	291	11	12	34%	7%	61	-1.5	155/224/256	101	238	9	9	37%	7%	32	-1.3
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	37→35	47→50	50→55	40	194/258/321	126	272	15	14	34%	7%	63	-1.3	225/298/353	128	316	12	16	31%	8%	85	+0.2	240/316/371	130	330	11	18	28%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Stone Garrett 2022 · AA	26	40→39	49→55	50	33	212/246/352	141	293	18	16	34%	4%	65	-1.2	226/278/395	169	303	21	13	31%	6%	87	+0.4	223/282/387	164	300	20	11	31%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Josh Stowers 2023 · AA	26	36→44	48→50	55	42	191/264/331	140	268	16	22	34%	8%	68	-1.0	185/249/305	120	263	13	17	33%	7%	57	-1.8	136/198/242	106	186	12	18	34%	6%	20	-2.4
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→32	49→45	56→50	45	202/280/345	143	284	17	20	34%	9%	77	-0.3	202/266/314	112	287	11	12	32%	7%	64	-1.3	193/253/289	96	272	9	8	31%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Pedro León 2024 · AAA	26	44→49	49→50	52→55	44	214/300/365	151	312	16	24	35%	9%	89	+0.5	231/293/383	152	327	18	25	33%	7%	91	+0.6	233/290/381	148	333	19	29	34%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Kameron Misner 2024 · AAA	26	41→43	48→50	55	47	196/291/341	145	317	15	22	39%	11%	80	-0.1	203/284/343	140	305	15	24	35%	10%	78	-0.3	199/277/338	139	286	15	27	34%	9%	72	-0.5
✕Phillip Sikes 2024 · AA	25	38→37	44→45	58→55	39	190/260/306	116	291	11	27	37%	7%	60	-1.6	192/259/305	113	293	12	21	37%	6%	60	-1.6	176/247/286	110	265	13	20	37%	6%	49	-1.2
✕Zac Cook 2023 · AA	25	38	48→55	50	33	183/277/320	137	314	16	15	43%	6%	72	-0.7	195/274/319	124	331	14	17	43%	5%	70	-0.8	142/226/246	104	257	15	29	48%	4%	34	-0.8
✕Jordan Nwogu 2024 · AA	25	36	48→50	51→55	36	188/253/324	136	286	17	17	39%	6%	62	-1.4	206/267/304	98	294	10	22	31%	6%	62	-1.4	212/276/293	80	294	7	25	28%	6%	61	-0.8
✕Chad Hinshaw 2017 · AA	26	44→42	42→45	55	41	210/285/316	107	302	9	26	32%	7%	72	-0.7	200/263/298	98	297	8	14	33%	6%	59	-1.6	177/235/263	85	266	6	11	34%	6%	38	-1.5
✕Narciso Crook 2021 · AAA	26	46→43	46→50	52→50	37	226/274/362	136	320	12	12	33%	5%	78	-0.3	211/282/356	145	315	16	14	36%	7%	80	-0.1	194/274/336	141	299	16	15	38%	7%	70	-0.5

Kristian Robinson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps