Kristian Robinson

Kristian RobinsonLF Reno Aces

Age 25 R/R 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2028

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .272 / .309

PA320

HR8

SB12

K%40

BB%10

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30→30

PWR

50→50

SPD

55→55

FLD

55→55

EYE

57↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-2M	-$5M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	Missoula Osprey	256	233	44	8	0	5	16	97	4	12	8	.189	.253	.288	.541	.099	.291	38	6	.237	40	-17	-1	+0	-3	+7	-1.4
2019	18	A	Kane County Cougars	102	95	16	2	1	4	5	39	2	3	2	.168	.225	.337	.562	.168	.231	38	5	.247	47	-6	-0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2023	22	A	4 teams	272	242	52	6	3	11	20	116	9	23	7	.215	.299	.401	.700	.186	.353	43	7	.294	84	-5	+2	+0	-3	+8	0.2
2024	23	AA	2 teams	498	440	76	13	1	9	51	227	5	19	6	.173	.266	.268	.534	.095	.325	46	10	.239	41	-33	+1	+0	-5	+14	-2.3
2025	24	AA	2 teams	512	448	87	15	4	12	54	190	5	34	8	.194	.288	.326	.614	.132	.299	37	11	.275	69	-18	+4	+0	-5	+15	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AAA	Reno Aces	100	87	20	2	2	2	10	30	2	4	1	.230	.323	.368	.691	.138	.321	30	10	.319	102	+0	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
ROS	25	MLB	ARI	220	194	38	6	2	5	22	83	2	8	2	.196	.284	.325	.609	.129	.305	38	10	.276	69	-8	+1	+1	-2	+6	-0.2
TOT	25	MLB	ARI	320	281	58	8	4	7	32	113	4	12	3	.206	.297	.338	.635	.132	.313	35	10	.289	80	-7	+1	+1	-3	+9	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 19%	ARI	365	320	66	11	3	9	38	123	4	12	3	.206	.298	.344	.642	.138	.301	34	10	.294	83	-7	+1	+1	-4	+10	0.2
2028	27	MLB 27%	ARI	388	341	71	12	3	10	40	128	4	13	3	.208	.299	.349	.648	.141	.301	33	10	.296	85	-7	+1	+1	-4	+11	0.3
2029	28	MLB 33%	ARI	401	352	73	12	3	10	42	131	4	12	3	.207	.299	.344	.643	.136	.300	33	10	.296	85	-7	+1	+0	-4	+11	0.2
2030	29	MLB 38%	ARI	400	352	73	12	3	10	41	131	4	11	3	.207	.297	.344	.641	.136	.299	33	10	.295	84	-7	+1	-0	-4	+11	0.1
2031	30	MLB 42%	ARI	398	350	72	12	3	10	41	132	4	10	2	.206	.296	.343	.639	.137	.297	33	10	.292	81	-8	+1	-1	-4	+11	-0.1
2032	31	MLB 50%	ARI	387	340	70	12	3	9	40	130	4	8	2	.206	.297	.338	.635	.132	.296	34	10	.288	79	-9	+1	-2	-4	+11	-0.3
2033	32	MLB 61%	ARI	370	325	66	11	3	9	38	126	4	6	1	.203	.294	.338	.633	.135	.294	34	10	.283	75	-10	+1	-2	-4	+10	-0.6
2034	33	MLB 71%	ARI	341	300	59	10	3	7	35	118	3	5	0	.197	.287	.320	.607	.123	.292	35	10	.278	71	-11	+1	-3	-4	+10	-0.8
2035	34	MLB 82%	ARI	298	263	50	8	2	6	30	106	3	4	0	.190	.280	.304	.585	.114	.291	36	10	.272	66	-11	+1	-4	-3	+8	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5208	4595	913	150	37	126	513	1877	61	180	50	.199	.288	.330	.617	.131	.300	36	10	.279	72	-166	+16	-9	-56	+148	-6.9
/ 162G	—			650	573	115	19	5	16	64	234	8	22	6	.201	.290	.335	.625	.134	.303	36	10	.279	72	-21	+2	-1	-7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	Missoula Osprey	256	222	62	12	0	7	27	67	4	12	8	.279	.368	.428	.796	.149	.364	26	11	.354	129	+8	-1	—	—	+7	1.5
2019	18	A	Kane County Cougars	102	92	20	3	1	5	8	30	2	3	2	.217	.294	.435	.729	.217	.263	29	8	.322	105	+1	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	22	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	17	16	4	1	0	2	1	7	0	0	1	.250	.294	.688	.982	.438	.286	41	6	.415	175	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2023	22	A+	Hillsboro Hops	39	34	9	0	0	2	4	13	1	2	3	.265	.359	.441	.800	.176	.368	33	10	.360	133	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	189	156	45	6	3	9	24	58	8	20	3	.288	.410	.538	.948	.250	.400	31	13	.414	175	+16	+3	—	—	+5	2.5
2023	22	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	27	27	8	1	1	1	0	8	0	1	0	.296	.296	.519	.815	.222	.389	30	0	.352	128	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	419	351	75	13	1	11	63	150	3	10	4	.214	.338	.350	.689	.137	.333	36	15	.316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+12	1.3
2024	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	79	69	22	4	1	1	8	22	2	9	2	.319	.405	.449	.854	.130	.457	28	10	.384	152	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.8
2025	24	AAA	Reno Aces	178	145	38	8	2	6	31	43	1	10	0	.262	.395	.469	.864	.207	.330	24	17	.383	152	+10	+2	—	—	+5	1.8
2025	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	334	280	70	13	3	11	46	101	4	24	8	.250	.364	.436	.799	.186	.343	30	14	.354	129	+11	+2	—	—	+9	2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kristian Robinson (OGILVIE)	25	30	50	55	40	.185/.272/.309	.124	.300	8	11	40%	10%	63	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	46→50	54→55	43	.195/.275/.328	.133	.280	14	16	34%	8%	68	-0.5	.196/.270/.305	.109	.263	10	17	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.156/.241/.247	.091	.208	8	20	27%	8%	30	-1.4
✕Stone Garrett 2021 · AA	25	39→37	47→60	51→50	30	.201/.238/.335	.135	.305	15	15	39%	3%	53	-1.5	.216/.257/.388	.172	.295	22	15	34%	5%	76	+0.0	.220/.282/.390	.169	.299	21	11	32%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→50	54→60	37	.202/.257/.328	.126	.297	13	21	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.281/.332	.127	.308	11	27	35%	7%	71	-0.3	.190/.283/.327	.137	.290	12	39	35%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Matt Gorski 2023 · AA	25	38→34	52→60	55	36	.201/.255/.362	.161	.296	21	19	39%	6%	68	-0.5	.202/.249/.372	.170	.277	22	19	35%	6%	68	-0.5	.192/.237/.369	.177	.251	24	19	34%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	39→45	47→50	53→55	44	.190/.291/.330	.140	.299	15	30	38%	10%	76	+0.1	.208/.284/.359	.151	.307	18	24	36%	7%	80	+0.4	.210/.280/.364	.153	.306	19	24	36%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Jeter Downs 2023 · MLB	25	31→41	49→50	53→55	38	.175/.246/.310	.136	.249	18	21	37%	7%	51	-1.7	.198/.279/.340	.142	.275	16	23	32%	8%	73	-0.1	.197/.289/.341	.144	.269	13	27	30%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	36→35	45	51→55	38	.187/.245/.306	.118	.262	14	14	33%	6%	50	-1.8	.203/.276/.332	.129	.299	15	15	35%	8%	69	-0.4	.230/.309/.359	.129	.323	13	18	30%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Garrett Whitley 2022 · AAA	25	39→38	48→50	49→55	39	.188/.270/.337	.149	.320	15	14	43%	9%	68	-0.5	.196/.278/.332	.136	.320	15	18	40%	9%	70	-0.3	.175/.274/.307	.132	.292	15	26	41%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Josh Stowers 2022 · AA	25	38→41	49→50	53→55	40	.197/.264/.341	.144	.286	18	23	36%	7%	66	-0.6	.182/.252/.318	.136	.265	16	20	36%	7%	56	-1.3	.157/.232/.277	.120	.228	13	21	36%	7%	34	-1.7
✕Zac Cook 2023 · AA	25	39	49→55	50	33	.186/.279/.331	.145	.324	17	15	44%	6%	72	-0.2	.191/.273/.321	.130	.335	15	17	45%	5%	66	-0.6	.139/.224/.249	.110	.261	17	29	50%	4%	25	-0.8
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	36	41→45	55→60	34	.178/.235/.273	.095	.297	9	25	41%	6%	36	-2.7	.215/.292/.332	.117	.329	14	25	36%	9%	76	+0.0	.220/.298/.337	.116	.314	13	41	32%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Shay Whitcomb 2023 · AA	24	38→44	48→55	54→55	32	.193/.241/.327	.134	.309	17	19	42%	5%	53	-1.5	.203/.258/.366	.163	.282	22	18	35%	6%	70	-0.3	.204/.266/.379	.174	.263	25	19	32%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Melky Mesa 2012 · AA	25	40→44	48→55	51→55	36	.201/.261/.345	.143	.304	15	17	38%	6%	66	-0.6	.218/.265/.371	.153	.310	18	17	35%	5%	74	-0.1	.215/.255/.374	.159	.296	21	17	34%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	40	46→50	49→50	45	.202/.285/.330	.128	.282	15	9	32%	9%	72	-0.2	.215/.302/.373	.158	.297	19	5	32%	9%	92	+1.2	.211/.305/.392	.181	.283	23	1	32%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Brewer Hicklen 2021 · A	25	43→41	48→55	56→60	35	.212/.270/.353	.141	.325	17	25	38%	5%	72	-0.2	.203/.278/.362	.159	.319	19	32	40%	8%	78	+0.2	.193/.279/.373	.180	.281	22	38	37%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Romy Gonzalez 2022 · MLB	25	43→44	50→55	52→55	38	.218/.270/.369	.151	.310	19	18	35%	6%	76	+0.1	.227/.271/.382	.155	.322	19	19	34%	5%	79	+0.3	.258/.302/.412	.153	.342	17	16	28%	5%	96	+0.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	34→29	46→45	49→50	44	.182/.254/.300	.117	.244	15	18	31%	8%	52	-1.6	.203/.279/.317	.114	.274	13	12	29%	9%	66	-0.6	.204/.281/.310	.106	.271	11	8	28%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Aaron Palensky 2023 · AA	24	42→32	48→55	48→55	42	.203/.283/.350	.147	.312	14	10	37%	8%	77	+0.1	.201/.287/.362	.161	.274	18	19	32%	9%	82	+0.5	.184/.279/.346	.163	.237	19	25	30%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Will Holland 2023 · AA	25	38→35	44→45	56→60	40	.182/.266/.298	.116	.308	12	23	41%	8%	57	-1.2	.188/.270/.297	.109	.289	10	29	36%	8%	58	-1.2	.175/.260/.280	.105	.257	10	34	34%	8%	47	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)