Juan Medina

P DSL Rangers Blue

Age 20 RHP ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	ROKDSL Rangers B…	11	11	42	6.59	3.15	25.3%	8.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	20	MLBTEX	5	5	25	4.66	4.66	20.7%	10.1%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBTEX	4	4	20	4.55	4.49	21.4%	9.5%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJosé López (age 21) · Chih-Jung Liu (age 22) · Logan Gragg (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%20.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	11	42	194	49	16	4	100%	3.8	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	2.9%	6.59	4.54	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	11	42	194	49	16	4	100%	3.8	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	2.9%	6.59	4.54	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	11	11	42	194	49	16	4	100%	3.8	25.3%	8.2%	17.0%	2.1%	6.59	3.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	TEX	5	5	25	106	22	11	3	100%	5.0	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.66	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	40	169	36	16	5	100%	5.7	21.4%	9.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.55	4.49	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	20	84	18	8	2	100%	5.0	21.4%	9.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.55	4.49	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	83	18	8	2	100%	4.9	21.4%	9.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.55	4.11	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	183	81	20	100%	4.8	21.4%	9.5%	11.8%	2.9%	4.55	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		11	11	42	194	33	20	6	100%	3.8	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	2.9%	6.59	4.54	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	917	157	94	26	100%	3.8	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	2.9%	6.59	4.54	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	20.7%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.49	21.4%	11.8%	40	-0.17	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	85
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	83
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	83
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	82
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	81
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	81
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	80
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	80
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	80
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.1%	9.7%	1.14	4.59
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*