Luis Padron

C DSL Giants Black

Age 17 L/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	16	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	52	.295/.380/.477	1	3	51	—	.196/.260/.283
2027PROJ0% MLB	17	MLB—	162	.218/.278/.313	1	3	67	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	18	MLB—	52	.220/.281/.320	1	1	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	19	MLB—	146	.224/.287/.329	2	3	74	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%90

ISO78

Z-Con%74

Whiff%64

wOBA56

wRC+55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsYasmil Bucce (age 17) · Eduardo Tait (age 17) · Derek Bernard (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj PA

wRC+67

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .276 / .311

PA57

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	16	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	52	44	13	3	1	1	5	11	1	3	1	295	380	477	857	182	353	21	10	366	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	52	46	9	2	1	0	3	13	1	3	1	196	260	283	543	87	228	25	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	52	46	9	2	1	0	3	13	1	3	1	196	260	283	543	87	257	25	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	52	44	13	3	1	1	5	11	1	3	1	295	380	477	857	182	353	21	10	366	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	52	48	9	2	1	0	3	13	1	3	1	188	260	271	531	83	228	25	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	52	48	9	2	1	0	3	13	1	3	1	188	260	271	531	83	228	25	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	17	MLB MLE	—	0%	162	148	32	6	2	1	11	42	2	3	1	218	278	313	592	95	290	26	7	267	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	18	MLB MLE	—	34%	151	138	32	6	2	2	10	39	2	3	0	220	281	320	601	100	291	26	7	271	70	-5	+1	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2029	19	MLB MLE	—	48%	301	273	61	11	3	4	21	76	4	6	1	224	287	329	616	105	293	25	7	277	74	-9	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2030	20	MLB MLE	—	54%	421	383	86	16	4	6	29	106	6	8	2	226	291	337	628	111	294	25	7	283	78	-11	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2031	21	MLB MLE	—	57%	510	462	106	20	5	8	36	127	7	10	3	229	295	344	639	115	295	25	7	287	81	-12	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.9
2032	22	MLB MLE	—	58%	520	471	109	20	5	9	37	128	7	10	3	231	297	351	648	120	296	25	7	291	83	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2033	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	520	471	109	20	5	9	37	128	7	10	3	232	298	353	651	121	297	25	7	292	84	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2034	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	471	109	20	5	9	37	128	7	10	3	233	299	355	654	122	298	25	7	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2035	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	471	109	20	5	9	37	128	7	10	3	233	299	356	656	123	298	25	7	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2036	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	470	109	20	5	9	38	128	7	10	3	233	299	357	656	124	297	25	7	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2037	27	MLB MLE	—	56%	520	470	109	20	5	9	38	128	7	9	3	232	298	354	652	122	297	25	7	293	84	-10	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.2
2038	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	520	470	109	20	5	9	38	130	7	8	3	230	296	349	646	119	296	25	7	290	82	-11	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.0
2039	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	520	471	107	20	5	8	37	131	7	6	2	228	293	343	636	115	294	25	7	286	80	-12	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.7
2040	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	520	472	106	19	5	8	37	133	6	4	2	224	290	335	625	111	292	26	7	281	77	-14	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.4
2041	31	MLB MLE	—	57%	504	458	100	18	4	7	35	131	6	0	2	220	285	325	610	105	289	26	7	275	73	-16	-1	-3	+9	+11	-0.0
2028	18	MLB CTX	—	34%	52	48	11	2	1	1	3	13	1	1	0	220	281	320	601	100	291	25	6	271	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	19	MLB CTX	—	48%	146	133	31	6	2	2	10	37	2	3	1	224	287	329	616	105	293	25	7	277	74	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	20	MLB CTX	—	54%	228	207	47	9	2	3	16	57	3	4	1	226	291	337	628	111	294	25	7	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	21	MLB CTX	—	57%	289	263	60	11	3	4	20	72	4	6	2	229	295	344	639	115	295	25	7	287	81	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	22	MLB CTX	—	58%	299	272	63	12	3	5	21	74	4	6	2	231	297	351	648	120	296	25	7	291	83	-6	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	301	272	63	12	3	5	22	74	4	6	2	232	298	353	651	121	297	25	7	292	84	-6	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.7
2034	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	297	270	63	12	3	5	21	73	4	6	2	233	299	355	654	122	298	25	7	294	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2035	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	295	268	63	12	3	5	21	72	4	6	2	233	299	356	656	123	298	24	7	294	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2036	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	294	267	62	11	3	5	21	72	4	6	2	233	299	357	656	124	297	24	7	294	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2037	27	MLB CTX	—	56%	289	262	61	11	3	5	21	71	4	5	2	232	298	354	652	122	297	25	7	293	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2038	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	286	259	60	11	3	5	21	71	4	4	2	230	296	349	646	119	296	25	7	290	82	-6	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2039	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	278	252	58	11	3	4	20	70	4	3	1	228	293	343	636	115	294	25	7	286	80	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2040	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	274	250	56	10	3	4	19	70	3	2	1	224	290	335	625	111	292	26	7	281	77	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2041	31	MLB CTX	—	57%	285	260	57	10	3	4	20	74	3	0	1	220	285	325	610	105	289	26	7	275	73	-9	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3613	3283	755	140	38	57	256	900	48	58	21	230	295	348	643	118	298	25	7	288	80	-82	+3	-4	+65	+78	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	136	25	7	10	46	162	9	10	4	230	296	347	643	117	299	25	7	288	80	-15	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6676	6049	1382	254	65	107	474	1669	89	108	34	228	294	345	639	117	296	25	7	287	80	-152	+8	-7	+118	+144	11.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	134	25	6	10	46	162	9	11	3	228	293	341	635	114	295	25	7	287	80	-15	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#4Randy Hundley'64-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,797 PA	5.7	3,797	82	12	236*	295*	383*	+68	+0	8.0	8.7
/162	664	14	2	+11.8	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.5	3,671	58	58	230	292	347	+66	+36	8.9	7.5
/162	664	11	11	+11.9	+6.5	1.6	pk7: 6
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Padron (OGILVIE)	17	—	—	—	—	216/276/311	94	290	1	1	26%	7%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasmil Bucce 2022 · A	17	43	36→55	49→40	46	201/277/267	66	277	3	5	26%	8%	57	-1.8	191/270/267	76	272	5	5	29%	9%	55	-1.9	183/288/308	125	273	14	2	35%	12%	69	-0.4
✕Eduardo Tait 2024 · A	17	45→40	40→50	48→30	42	216/273/314	98	284	6	7	25%	6%	66	-1.1	211/260/340	129	272	14	4	27%	5%	68	-1.0	197/246/336	139	247	17	2	28%	5%	61	-1.1
✕Derek Bernard 2024 · A	18	43→46	40	54→50	47	206/274/303	97	275	7	16	26%	8%	65	-1.2	215/276/314	99	339	7	13	36%	7%	68	-1.0	218/283/320	102	353	8	12	38%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Ronny Hernandez 2023 · A	18	40→50	42→40	48→30	49	196/272/301	105	246	10	5	24%	8%	64	-1.3	220/294/293	73	298	4	3	25%	9%	70	-0.9	229/306/323	94	287	11	1	22%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	43→48	38→45	46→40	50	204/277/287	83	255	5	5	21%	9%	62	-1.4	233/285/320	87	295	6	3	22%	6%	72	-0.7	246/292/359	114	319	10	2	25%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Francisco Arcia 2008 · A	18	41	39→40	50→40	49	194/284/285	91	253	5	7	24%	8%	65	-1.2	196/263/283	87	247	6	5	22%	7%	56	-1.9	226/272/288	62	281	5	2	21%	4%	57	-0.7
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→55	47	215/290/297	83	299	3	10	27%	8%	69	-0.9	222/312/294	72	300	3	13	24%	11%	77	-0.3	217/314/281	64	302	1	14	25%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Enrique Jimenez 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	48→45	48	198/271/282	84	258	3	6	23%	8%	59	-1.7	199/279/318	119	281	12	6	31%	10%	70	-0.8	186/279/321	135	256	16	4	32%	11%	69	-0.3
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Mikey Romero 2023 · A	19	46→42	42→50	54→40	42	222/272/335	113	297	7	8	27%	6%	70	-0.8	210/255/339	129	280	12	5	28%	5%	65	-1.2	201/243/351	150	268	15	3	31%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Thayron Liranzo 2022 · A	19	43	37→50	49→30	47	202/280/280	77	287	4	8	29%	9%	62	-1.4	208/291/366	158	303	18	3	35%	10%	86	+0.3	203/298/375	172	290	20	1	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Omar Alfonzo 2022 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	55	191/300/261	69	279	4	4	30%	13%	66	-1.1	194/282/281	87	288	8	4	32%	10%	63	-1.3	205/285/317	112	311	13	2	36%	9%	70	-0.6

Luis Padron

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps