Yasmil BucceC Frederick Keys
Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 168 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 224 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .297 / .338
PA224
HR6
K%32
BB%11
BABIP280
ISO138
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -9.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: -0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +5.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+6POSREP: +9.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.01.32.60.01.31.82.02.12.12.12.01.81.7+$115M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.1$12M+$12M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.1$12M+$11M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+2.1$11M+$10M
2033Arb-1$4M+2.0$9M+$8M
2034Arb-2$6M+1.8$8M+$5M
2035Arb-3$8M+1.7$7M+$4M
Totals $20M $59M +$50M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202116 ROKDSL Orioles 2 — 8676 14110 7253 00 184279224503 39275 298 225 30 — — — — — —
202116 ROKDSL Orioles 2 — 8672 17210 11173 00 236360292652 56309 2013 311 96 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 117106 17402 9321 10 160233255487 94205 278 228 33 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 117100 23502 15211 10 230336340676 110269 1813 310 95 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 7467 14311 6301 00 209284328612 119361 418 240 42 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 7463 19411 10201 00 302405444850 143429 2714 383 151 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Orioles — 9473 11201 15284 10 151326219545 68217 3016 259 56 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Orioles — 9465 12201 23214 10 185424262685 77244 2224 338 117 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 394341 711339 451446 21 208311343654 135326 3711 288 79 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 394315 761338 711026 21 241390378768 137329 2618 353 129 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 A+BAL — 9684 13105 10422 01 155260345606 190216 4410 271 66 -4 -0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
YTD21 A+BAL — 9679 17207 15312 01 215354506860 291244 3216 378 148 +5 -0 +0 +2 +3 0.9
ROS21 A+BAL 0% 224195 39716 24723 21 200297338636 138271 3211 285 76 -6 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.4
ROS21 MLBBAL 0% 11 0000 000 00 276 00 279 71 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
FULL21 A+BAL — 9785 13105 10422 01 153258341599 188211 4310 271 66 -4 -0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
TOT21 A+BAL — 320279 528111 341145 22 186286341627 154265 3611 281 73 -10 -0 +0 +6 +9 0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBBAL 49% 446390 8115213 471366 52 208302356659 149276 3011 295 84 -8 +0 +0 +8 +13 1.3
202823 MLBBAL 68% 502437 9217215 531487 62 211306362667 151278 2911 301 89 -6 +0 +0 +9 +14 1.8
202924 MLBBAL 74% 520453 9718216 551517 63 214309369677 155280 2911 305 92 -5 +0 +0 +9 +15 2.0
203025 MLBBAL 77% 520453 9818216 551497 73 216311371682 155280 2911 308 94 -4 +0 +0 +9 +15 2.1
203126 MLBBAL 78% 520453 9818216 551497 73 216311371682 155280 2911 308 94 -3 +0 +0 +9 +15 2.1
203227 MLBBAL 77% 520452 9718216 561507 73 215311369680 155280 2911 308 94 -3 +0 +0 +9 +15 2.1
203328 MLBBAL 77% 520452 9718216 561507 73 215311369680 155279 2911 307 93 -4 +0 -1 +9 +15 2.0
203429 MLBBAL 75% 520451 9718216 571517 63 215313370683 155278 2911 305 92 -5 +0 -1 +9 +15 1.8
203530 MLBBAL 73% 520451 9517216 571537 62 211309364672 153277 2911 303 90 -6 +0 -2 +9 +15 1.7
203631 MLBBAL 73% 504438 9217215 551496 62 210307361667 151274 3011 299 87 -8 +0 -3 +9 +14 1.4
203732 MLBBAL 72% 485423 8615214 531466 52 203301348648 144271 3011 293 83 -10 +0 -4 +9 +14 1.0
203833 MLBBAL 72% 442386 7613112 481355 42 197294329623 132266 3111 286 77 -11 +0 -4 +8 +13 0.5
202722 MLBBAL 49% 216188 39716 23663 31 207304351655 144280 3111 290 80 -5 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.5
202823 MLBBAL 68% 343300 6412111 361014 42 213306370676 157283 2910 296 85 -6 +0 +0 +6 +10 1.0
202924 MLBBAL 74% 385336 7414212 411125 52 220314381695 161284 2911 301 88 -5 +0 +0 +7 +11 1.3
203025 MLBBAL 77% 400350 7714213 421155 52 220312383695 163285 2910 303 90 -5 +0 +0 +7 +11 1.4
203126 MLBBAL 78% 406355 7915213 431175 52 223315386701 163285 2911 304 90 -4 +0 +0 +7 +12 1.5
203227 MLBBAL 77% 401350 7714213 431155 52 220314383697 163284 2911 304 91 -4 +0 +0 +7 +11 1.5
203328 MLBBAL 77% 398347 7614213 431155 52 219314383697 164284 2911 303 90 -5 +0 -1 +7 +11 1.4
203429 MLBBAL 75% 388338 7314112 421135 52 216312370682 154283 2911 301 88 -5 +0 -1 +7 +11 1.2
203530 MLBBAL 73% 382332 7113112 421125 42 214311367679 154281 2911 298 86 -6 +0 -2 +7 +11 1.0
203631 MLBBAL 73% 367319 6712111 401095 42 210308357665 147279 3011 294 83 -7 +0 -2 +7 +10 0.8
203732 MLBBAL 72% 351306 6211110 381054 41 203299343642 141275 3011 289 79 -8 +0 -3 +6 +10 0.6
203833 MLBBAL 72% 319278 561019 34984 31 201297342639 140270 3111 282 74 -9 +0 -3 +6 +9 0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 43573800 81515017135 467127855 5221 214309369679 155282 2911 298 86 -69 +2 -11 +78 +123 12.6
/ 162G— — 650567 12222320 701918 83 215310370680 155284 2911 298 86 -10 +0 -2 +12 +18 1.9
Career— — 70086097 127223229200 753209897 7832 209305355660 146279 3011 297 86 -113 +3 -15 +125 +199 20.2
/ 162G— — 650566 11922319 701959 73 210307360668 150281 3011 297 86 -11 +0 -1 +12 +18 1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202116 ROKDSL Orioles 2 — 8672 17210 11173 00 236360292652 56309 2013 311 96 -0 +0 — — +2 0.2
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black — 117100 23502 15211 10 230336340676 110269 1813 310 95 -1 +0 — — +3 0.3
202318 ROKFCL Orioles — 7463 19411 10201 00 302405444850 143429 2714 383 151 +4 +0 — — +2 0.6
202419 ROKFCL Orioles — 9465 12201 23214 10 185424262685 77244 2224 338 117 +2 +0 — — +3 0.5
202520 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 5544 7000 9201 00 159315159474 280 3616 243 44 -3 +0 — — +2 -0.2
202520 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 339271 691338 62825 21 255402413816 159335 2418 371 142 +16 +0 — — +10 2.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22
career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA
123,381976227312387+60+7722.521.6
/162664191+11.9+15.14.4pk7: 21
#2Miguel Olivolast yr '13
career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA
113,94714453241275417+70+5319.118.9
/162664249+11.9+8.83.2pk7: 19
#3John Bucklast yr '14
career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA
114,0091346234301398+72+716.915.7
/162664221+11.9+1.22.8pk7: 14
career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA
93,1271105235308414+56-1014.114.8
/162664231+11.9-2.13.0pk7: 16
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA
62,1956326230304380+39+5013.713.7
/162664198+11.9+15.14.1pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons
94,35913252212304365+78+3614.712.6
/162664208+11.9+5.52.2pk7: 11
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Yasmil Bucce (OGILVIE) 21 40 40 40 60 186/286/341 154265 112 36% 11% 73 +0.5 ————————— —————————
✕Randy Florentino
2021 · A 		21 43 40→50 42→45 47 204/282/302 97297 76 32% 10% 63 -0.8 179/241/260 81267 85 34% 7% 35 -2.8 183/233/258752428427%6%29-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin
2022 · A 		22 45 43→45 45 56 218/316/337 119281 107 24% 12% 87 +0.8 187/273/293 106269 115 32% 10% 58 -1.2 150/237/225752158432%9%24-1.2
✕Johnny Monell
2008 · A 		22 43→44 44→50 44→45 48 213/288/328 115279 118 27% 9% 73 -0.1 232/294/362 130291 128 23% 7% 84 +0.6 211/282/35514427715628%8%76+0.0
✕Isan Díaz
2017 · A 		21 42 46→55 45 43 208/273/344 136295 128 32% 8% 70 -0.3 203/271/341 138294 158 34% 8% 69 -0.4 208/287/37316427521531%9%79+0.2
✕Colson Montgomery
2023 · AA 		21 46 43→55 44→45 45 223/296/330 107306 103 29% 8% 76 +0.1 206/293/345 139287 155 32% 9% 80 +0.4 191/270/37418425025434%8%74-0.0
✕Jose Lobatón
2007 · A 		22 44 42→50 42→30 47 210/289/319 109299 104 31% 9% 71 -0.3 219/282/346 127299 133 29% 8% 75 -0.0 237/323/37313529813023%11%96+0.7
✕John Whittleman
2008 · A 		21 41→43 44→50 42→45 48 204/276/324 121273 115 29% 9% 66 -0.6 200/279/315 115276 103 29% 10% 66 -0.6 171/259/32415323418134%11%58-0.8
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba
2019 · A 		20 45→49 41→45 46→55 51 216/301/314 97294 97 28% 10% 74 -0.1 230/299/349 119326 1111 30% 9% 82 +0.5 228/302/349121326101531%9%80+0.2
✕Alexander Campos
2022 · A 		22 43 41→40 46→45 48 206/290/308 102278 86 27% 9% 69 -0.4 221/302/309 88318 76 30% 9% 74 -0.1 242/332/316743358627%10%86+0.3
✕Rio Ruiz
2015 · A 		21 48→51 42→50 45→40 49 231/296/344 114296 85 24% 9% 79 +0.3 230/294/344 114299 103 25% 8% 79 +0.3 212/277/35113925116322%8%72-0.1
✕Darrien Miller
2022 · A 		21 44→41 45 50→45 48 215/312/330 114296 138 30% 9% 85 +0.7 189/296/305 116260 126 30% 9% 72 -0.2 174/315/272982519330%11%72-0.1
✕Matthew Sweeney
2009 · A 		21 43→40 48→50 44→45 42 221/269/364 143270 156 24% 5% 73 -0.1 203/264/327 124285 124 31% 7% 62 -0.9 175/244/29111625312234%7%42-1.1
✕Carlos Vidal
2017 · A 		21 48 43→45 49→50 48 234/302/348 114288 1012 22% 7% 83 +0.6 232/278/326 94303 67 24% 5% 66 -0.6 237/281/332953085624%5%65-0.3
✕Omar Martinez
2023 · A 		22 41→38 43→45 42→40 46 200/285/309 109287 115 32% 9% 67 -0.5 192/271/311 119296 145 37% 9% 62 -0.9 177/257/29111427614339%9%48-1.3
✕Nick Weglarz
2009 · A 		21 45→47 48→55 45 49 225/304/366 140296 156 28% 9% 89 +1.0 222/311/381 159278 175 25% 10% 96 +1.5 210/311/38016925719225%11%94+0.7
✕Rudy van Heydoorn
2009 · A 		20 39 43→45 42→50 48 193/294/300 106278 1110 32% 10% 69 -0.4 183/263/286 103286 106 37% 8% 52 -1.6 153/236/25410123711238%9%32-0.9
✕Zach Fisher
2014 · A 		22 43 43→50 43→30 45 214/269/331 117256 103 21% 6% 65 -0.7 231/281/356 125295 124 25% 6% 76 +0.1 248/294/39414730916025%6%88+0.3
✕Drew Robinson
2013 · A 		21 44→40 42→55 46→50 46 204/291/308 104315 98 35% 10% 69 -0.4 191/267/322 131285 139 35% 9% 63 -0.9 213/286/393179309201236%9%85+0.5
✕Juan Brito
2023 · A 		21 48→49 47→50 48→45 53 234/319/377 143286 1311 22% 10% 98 +1.6 227/305/369 142277 149 22% 9% 91 +1.1 218/298/35914126415922%9%83+0.4
✕Meibrys Viloria
2018 · A 		21 51→47 42→45 43→40 40 244/285/352 107315 84 25% 4% 76 +0.1 222/272/320 98306 94 29% 6% 63 -0.8 205/291/302973079333%10%64-0.4