Mikey Romero
SS Worcester Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AA/A+BOS | 350 | .265/.309/.508 | 16 | 1 | 69 | — | .205/.237/.388 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA/AABOS | 489 | .245/.303/.452 | 17 | 5 | 62 | — | .205/.249/.354 |
| 2026 | 22 | AAABOS | 490 | .239/.308/.375 | 12 | 2 | 58 | — | .208/.262/.315 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 21 | .233/.281/.371 | 0 | 0 | 77 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 24 | MLBBOS | 153 | .238/.287/.388 | 4 | 1 | 84 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 25 | MLBBOS | 220 | .241/.292/.399 | 6 | 1 | 88 | 0.3 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 44 | 43 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 349 | 364 | 581 | 945 | 233 | 469 | 25 | 2 | 407 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 43 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 372 | 417 | 789 | 167 | 258 | 9 | 16 | 357 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 105 | 92 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 217 | 291 | 304 | 596 | 87 | 260 | 16 | 9 | 267 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 29 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 379 | 292 | 671 | 42 | 300 | 14 | 17 | 321 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 74 | 70 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 264 | 543 | 807 | 300 | 268 | 34 | 3 | 337 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 276 | 255 | 69 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 271 | 321 | 498 | 819 | 227 | 312 | 21 | 6 | 355 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 192 | 177 | 41 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 280 | 469 | 749 | 237 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 322 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 297 | 268 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 74 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 317 | 440 | 758 | 187 | 319 | 25 | 8 | 330 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 440 | 105 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 103 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 308 | 375 | 683 | 136 | 282 | 21 | 8 | 304 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 44 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 273 | 419 | 691 | 163 | 431 | 36 | 2 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 43 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 308 | 564 | 128 | 191 | 14 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 105 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 198 | 252 | 281 | 534 | 83 | 241 | 23 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 29 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 276 | 231 | 507 | 38 | 245 | 21 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 74 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 208 | 437 | 645 | 239 | 237 | 41 | 1 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 276 | 261 | 54 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 79 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 245 | 375 | 620 | 169 | 260 | 29 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 192 | 180 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 217 | 344 | 561 | 167 | 238 | 36 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 297 | 275 | 61 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 270 | 360 | 630 | 138 | 298 | 31 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 451 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 123 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 262 | 315 | 577 | 106 | 259 | 25 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 276 | 378 | 654 | 146 | 305 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 87 | 79 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 368 | 506 | 874 | 203 | 365 | 17 | 9 | 382 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 122 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 189 | 250 | 254 | 504 | 66 | 242 | 22 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 134 | 116 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 224 | 311 | 302 | 612 | 78 | 268 | 16 | 10 | 279 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 331 | 68 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 240 | 390 | 630 | 184 | 258 | 31 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 325 | 86 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 83 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 309 | 508 | 817 | 243 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 351 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 455 | 93 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 161 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 204 | 249 | 354 | 603 | 149 | 282 | 33 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 489 | 445 | 109 | 33 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 132 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 245 | 303 | 452 | 755 | 207 | 306 | 27 | 7 | 327 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 451 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 123 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 262 | 315 | 577 | 106 | 262 | 25 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 440 | 105 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 103 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 308 | 375 | 683 | 136 | 282 | 21 | 8 | 304 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 87 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 276 | 378 | 654 | 146 | 312 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 134 | 123 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 187 | 250 | 252 | 502 | 65 | 242 | 22 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 332 | 68 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 240 | 389 | 628 | 184 | 255 | 31 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 459 | 93 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 161 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 203 | 249 | 351 | 600 | 148 | 274 | 33 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 454 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 123 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 262 | 313 | 575 | 106 | 259 | 25 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 332 | 68 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 109 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 240 | 389 | 628 | 184 | 255 | 31 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 489 | 459 | 93 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 161 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 203 | 249 | 351 | 600 | 148 | 274 | 33 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 490 | 454 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 123 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 262 | 313 | 575 | 106 | 259 | 25 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 10% | 575 | 535 | 121 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 154 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 274 | 361 | 635 | 135 | 290 | 27 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -16 | +0 | -4 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 10% | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 371 | 651 | 137 | 300 | 29 | 5 | 289 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 35% | 441 | 410 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 116 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 281 | 379 | 660 | 147 | 291 | 26 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 46% | 476 | 441 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 28 | 124 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 285 | 390 | 675 | 155 | 292 | 26 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 52% | 495 | 458 | 108 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 128 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 288 | 396 | 684 | 160 | 292 | 26 | 6 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 502 | 462 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 129 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 289 | 394 | 683 | 158 | 292 | 26 | 6 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 54% | 501 | 461 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 129 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 289 | 390 | 679 | 156 | 291 | 26 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -6 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 492 | 455 | 105 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 128 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 286 | 385 | 671 | 152 | 290 | 26 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -8 | -0 | -4 | +5 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 52% | 481 | 445 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 127 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 283 | 378 | 660 | 148 | 288 | 26 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +0 | -5 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 52% | 466 | 432 | 96 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 125 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 278 | 368 | 646 | 143 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 287 | 80 | -11 | +0 | -5 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 52% | 445 | 413 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 121 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 272 | 356 | 628 | 136 | 282 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 75 | -13 | +0 | -6 | +5 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 35% | 153 | 142 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 287 | 388 | 675 | 150 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 298 | 84 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 46% | 220 | 203 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 292 | 399 | 690 | 157 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 305 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 52% | 256 | 237 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 243 | 295 | 405 | 699 | 162 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 308 | 90 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 266 | 246 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 242 | 295 | 403 | 698 | 160 | 302 | 26 | 6 | 308 | 90 | -3 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 54% | 268 | 247 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 295 | 399 | 694 | 158 | 301 | 26 | 6 | 307 | 89 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 259 | 239 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 292 | 394 | 686 | 155 | 300 | 26 | 6 | 303 | 87 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 52% | 251 | 232 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 289 | 386 | 675 | 150 | 298 | 26 | 6 | 299 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 52% | 242 | 223 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 284 | 377 | 661 | 145 | 296 | 27 | 6 | 293 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 52% | 230 | 213 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 278 | 365 | 643 | 138 | 292 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2145 | 1982 | 469 | 103 | 9 | 60 | 130 | 563 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 237 | 289 | 388 | 678 | 152 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 301 | 79 | -37 | +1 | -17 | +23 | +46 | 1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 142 | 31 | 3 | 18 | 39 | 171 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 288 | 388 | 676 | 151 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 301 | 79 | -11 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6059 | 5613 | 1260 | 259 | 39 | 161 | 350 | 1627 | 44 | 31 | 12 | 224 | 275 | 371 | 646 | 146 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -80 | +1 | -36 | +48 | +98 | 3.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 135 | 28 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 175 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 276 | 369 | 645 | 145 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +0 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 490 PAwOBA .299 → .254 (−45)K% 21.0% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.02% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .299 → .254; ISO .136 → .107; BABIP .282 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 297 PAwOBA .324 → .268 (−56)K% 24.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.92% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.74% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×1.050 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .324 → .268; ISO .187 → .139; BABIP .319 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 192 PAwOBA .317 → .247 (−71)K% 30.2% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.21% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.73% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 12.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.61% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 10.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.56% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 5.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .247; ISO .237 → .178; BABIP .283 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greenville Drive · 276 PAwOBA .346 → .270 (−77)K% 21.0% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.01% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.77% | ÷1.013 | ×0.870 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.15% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.03% | ÷0.927 | ×0.850 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.043 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 4.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .346 → .270; ISO .227 → .180; BABIP .312 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 74 PAwOBA .336 → .270 (−66)K% 33.8% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.78% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 17.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 10.73% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .336 → .270; ISO .300 → .228; BABIP .268 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 105 PAwOBA .266 → .229 (−36)K% 16.2% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.19% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.67% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.045 | 2.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .266 → .229; ISO .087 → .080; BABIP .260 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 29 PAwOBA .314 → .232 (−81)K% 13.8% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 21.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .232; ISO .042 → .028; BABIP .300 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 44 PAwOBA .396 → .306 (−90)K% 25.0% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.27% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 23.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 11.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 8.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .396 → .306; ISO .233 → .175; BABIP .469 → .431. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).