Ronny Hernandez
C Greenville Drive| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ACWS | 413 | .272/.386/.328 | 1 | 0 | 78 | — | .242/.333/.287 |
| 2025 | 20 | ACWS | 355 | .251/.347/.336 | 4 | 4 | 53 | — | .202/.270/.273 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+BOS | 275 | .304/.412/.548 | 15 | 0 | 114 | — | .252/.324/.459 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBBOS | 1 | .237/.310/.363 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 88 | .241/.314/.374 | 2 | 1 | 91 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 24 | MLBBOS | 165 | .243/.318/.381 | 4 | 2 | 94 | 0.6 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL White Sox | — | 120 | 97 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 393 | 526 | 919 | 258 | 274 | 18 | 15 | 394 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 172 | 148 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 338 | 430 | 493 | 923 | 155 | 427 | 20 | 13 | 412 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 345 | 94 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 386 | 328 | 713 | 55 | 325 | 14 | 15 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 307 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 75 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 347 | 336 | 682 | 85 | 316 | 21 | 13 | 313 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 230 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 412 | 548 | 960 | 243 | 309 | 15 | 15 | 416 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL White Sox | — | 120 | 103 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 248 | 243 | 491 | 97 | 161 | 22 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 172 | 156 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 308 | 604 | 83 | 328 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 363 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 333 | 287 | 619 | 44 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 322 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 71 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 246 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 324 | 459 | 783 | 207 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL White Sox | — | 120 | 103 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 248 | 243 | 491 | 97 | 167 | 22 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL White Sox | — | 120 | 97 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 393 | 526 | 919 | 258 | 274 | 18 | 15 | 394 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 172 | 156 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 308 | 604 | 83 | 327 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL White Sox | — | 172 | 148 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 338 | 430 | 493 | 923 | 155 | 427 | 20 | 13 | 412 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 363 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 333 | 287 | 619 | 44 | 309 | 20 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 345 | 94 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 386 | 328 | 713 | 55 | 325 | 14 | 15 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 322 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 71 | 277 | 28 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 307 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 75 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 347 | 336 | 682 | 85 | 316 | 21 | 13 | 313 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 246 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 324 | 459 | 783 | 207 | 264 | 19 | 9 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 230 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 412 | 548 | 960 | 243 | 309 | 15 | 15 | 416 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL White Sox | — | 120 | 105 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 248 | 238 | 486 | 95 | 161 | 22 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 172 | 154 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 297 | 312 | 608 | 84 | 328 | 30 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 361 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 333 | 288 | 621 | 44 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 322 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 71 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 247 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 324 | 457 | 781 | 206 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 413 | 361 | 88 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 81 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 333 | 288 | 621 | 44 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 355 | 322 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 202 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 71 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 275 | 247 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 324 | 457 | 781 | 206 | 260 | 19 | 9 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 385 | 345 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 231 | 305 | 355 | 660 | 124 | 272 | 21 | 9 | 297 | 87 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 310 | 363 | 673 | 126 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 303 | 87 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 43% | 202 | 180 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 234 | 309 | 366 | 675 | 131 | 273 | 21 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 58% | 285 | 256 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 312 | 373 | 685 | 136 | 275 | 20 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 340 | 303 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 70 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 313 | 377 | 691 | 139 | 276 | 21 | 9 | 309 | 96 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 68% | 372 | 332 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 77 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 314 | 379 | 692 | 140 | 276 | 21 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 68% | 386 | 345 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 80 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 313 | 377 | 690 | 140 | 277 | 21 | 9 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 68% | 388 | 347 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 82 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 311 | 373 | 684 | 137 | 276 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 66% | 382 | 342 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 133 | 274 | 21 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 66% | 372 | 333 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 304 | 358 | 662 | 128 | 272 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 341 | 306 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 299 | 348 | 647 | 122 | 269 | 22 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +6 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 302 | 271 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 293 | 335 | 628 | 115 | 265 | 23 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB MLE | BOS | 65% | 255 | 230 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 59 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 286 | 320 | 606 | 106 | 260 | 23 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -8 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 43% | 88 | 80 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 314 | 374 | 688 | 133 | 282 | 20 | 9 | 309 | 91 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 58% | 165 | 148 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 318 | 381 | 699 | 138 | 284 | 21 | 9 | 313 | 94 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 220 | 197 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 319 | 386 | 705 | 141 | 285 | 20 | 9 | 315 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 68% | 253 | 227 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 245 | 319 | 387 | 706 | 142 | 286 | 21 | 9 | 316 | 96 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +5 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 68% | 262 | 235 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 319 | 386 | 704 | 142 | 286 | 21 | 9 | 315 | 95 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 68% | 264 | 237 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 242 | 317 | 381 | 698 | 139 | 285 | 21 | 9 | 312 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 66% | 254 | 228 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 54 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 314 | 374 | 688 | 135 | 283 | 21 | 9 | 308 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 66% | 244 | 219 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 310 | 366 | 676 | 130 | 281 | 22 | 9 | 304 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 222 | 199 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 305 | 356 | 661 | 124 | 278 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 195 | 175 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 117 | 274 | 23 | 9 | 290 | 78 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB CTX | BOS | 65% | 165 | 150 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 291 | 328 | 619 | 108 | 269 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 72 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2332 | 2095 | 493 | 87 | 3 | 58 | 210 | 498 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 235 | 308 | 363 | 670 | 127 | 281 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 86 | -29 | +3 | -10 | +42 | +51 | 5.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 137 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 139 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 235 | 309 | 361 | 670 | 127 | 280 | 21 | 9 | 306 | 86 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5124 | 4582 | 1051 | 168 | 9 | 123 | 474 | 1119 | 27 | 35 | 7 | 229 | 305 | 351 | 656 | 121 | 275 | 22 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -48 | +3 | -15 | +68 | +82 | 9.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 133 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 60 | 142 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 304 | 351 | 655 | 122 | 274 | 22 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greenville Drive · 275 PAwOBA .410 → .336 (−74)K% 14.5% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 7.03% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .410 → .336; ISO .243 → .219; BABIP .309 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 355 PAwOBA .307 → .246 (−61)K% 21.1% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.39% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 22.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.091 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.853 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .307 → .246; ISO .085 → .072; BABIP .316 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 413 PAwOBA .327 → .283 (−44)K% 14.3% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.01% | ÷0.957 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 26.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.35% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .327 → .283; ISO .055 → .046; BABIP .325 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL White Sox · 172 PAwOBA .400 → .271 (−129)K% 20.3% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.35% | ÷0.994 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.21% | ÷0.951 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.09% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 24.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.62% | ÷0.942 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 7.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.099 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷2.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.95% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 339, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 120, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .400 → .271; ISO .155 → .085; BABIP .427 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL White Sox · 120 PAwOBA .391 → .235 (−156)K% 17.5% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.11% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 10.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.21% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.218 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 3.07% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 101, 3B 96, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .391 → .235; ISO .258 → .120; BABIP .274 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).