Sebastian Rojas

C DSL Cardinals

Age 18 R/R ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#799ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKSTL	139	.357/.452/.609	5	1	84	—	.227/.319/.353
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBSTL	249	.222/.289/.327	3	3	75	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBSTL	44	.227/.296/.338	1	1	79	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBSTL	112	.230/.300/.347	2	1	83	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA93

ISO93

wRC+91

K%67

Whiff%58

Z-Con%58

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMichael Arroyo (age 18) · Alirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .287 / .324

PA72

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	139	115	41	14	0	5	14	25	6	1	0	357	452	609	1.061	252	404	18	10	449	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	139	119	27	9	0	2	10	30	6	1	0	227	319	353	671	126	254	22	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	139	119	27	9	0	2	10	30	6	1	0	227	319	353	671	126	275	22	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	139	115	41	14	0	5	14	25	6	1	0	357	452	609	1.061	252	404	18	10	449	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	139	122	27	9	0	2	10	30	6	1	0	221	319	344	663	123	254	22	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	139	122	27	9	0	2	10	30	6	1	0	221	319	344	663	123	254	22	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	STL	0%	249	226	50	12	1	3	17	62	4	3	1	222	289	327	616	105	289	25	7	279	75	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	STL	34%	128	116	27	6	1	2	9	31	2	2	1	226	295	338	632	112	291	24	7	286	79	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	STL	48%	231	209	48	11	1	4	16	56	4	3	1	229	299	347	646	118	293	24	7	291	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	21	MLB MLE	STL	54%	353	317	74	17	2	6	26	85	7	4	2	232	303	355	658	124	294	24	7	296	86	-6	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.8
2031	22	MLB MLE	STL	57%	443	400	94	21	2	9	32	106	8	6	3	234	305	362	667	128	294	24	7	300	89	-6	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	STL	58%	445	401	94	21	2	9	33	106	8	5	3	236	307	368	675	132	295	24	7	303	91	-5	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2033	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	401	94	21	2	9	33	106	8	5	3	237	308	371	679	134	296	24	7	305	92	-4	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2034	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	401	95	21	2	10	33	106	8	5	3	237	309	373	682	136	296	24	7	305	93	-4	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2035	26	MLB MLE	STL	57%	445	401	95	21	2	10	33	106	8	5	3	237	309	374	683	136	296	24	7	306	93	-4	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.4
2036	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	445	401	95	21	2	10	33	106	8	5	3	236	308	371	679	135	295	24	7	304	92	-4	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2037	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	445	401	94	21	2	9	33	107	8	5	4	234	306	366	672	132	294	24	7	301	90	-5	-1	-1	+8	+10	1.1
2038	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	445	401	92	20	2	9	33	109	8	5	4	232	303	360	663	128	293	24	7	298	88	-7	-1	-1	+8	+10	0.9
2039	30	MLB MLE	STL	53%	445	401	92	20	2	9	33	110	8	5	6	229	299	352	651	123	291	25	7	293	84	-8	-1	-2	+8	+10	0.6
2040	31	MLB MLE	STL	52%	426	385	87	19	2	8	31	107	7	4	12	224	294	342	636	118	288	25	7	287	80	-10	-4	-3	+8	+9	0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	STL	34%	44	40	9	2	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	227	296	338	634	111	294	25	7	286	79	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	STL	48%	112	101	24	6	1	2	8	27	2	1	1	230	300	347	647	117	295	24	7	292	83	-2	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	STL	54%	191	171	39	9	1	3	14	46	4	2	1	233	303	354	658	122	296	24	7	296	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	STL	57%	251	226	53	12	1	5	18	60	5	3	2	235	306	361	667	126	297	24	7	300	89	-3	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2032	23	MLB CTX	STL	58%	256	230	55	13	1	5	19	61	5	3	2	237	308	366	674	130	298	24	7	303	91	-3	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	254	228	54	12	1	5	19	60	5	3	2	238	309	369	678	132	299	24	7	304	92	-2	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.8
2034	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	252	226	53	12	1	5	19	60	5	3	2	238	309	371	680	133	299	24	8	305	93	-2	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2035	26	MLB CTX	STL	57%	252	226	53	12	1	5	19	60	5	3	2	238	309	372	681	134	298	24	8	305	93	-2	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2036	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	247	222	52	12	1	5	18	59	5	3	2	237	308	369	677	132	298	24	7	304	92	-2	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2037	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	244	220	52	12	1	5	18	59	4	3	2	235	306	364	671	129	297	24	7	301	90	-3	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.6
2038	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	238	214	49	11	1	4	18	58	4	3	2	233	303	358	662	126	295	24	8	297	88	-3	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2039	30	MLB CTX	STL	53%	234	211	48	11	1	4	17	58	4	2	3	229	300	351	650	121	293	25	7	293	84	-4	-1	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	STL	52%	222	200	45	10	1	4	16	56	4	2	6	225	295	341	636	116	290	25	7	287	80	-5	-2	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2797	2515	586	134	12	53	206	675	53	32	27	233	305	359	664	126	296	24	7	299	88	-37	-4	-4	+50	+61	6.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	136	31	3	12	48	157	12	7	6	233	304	358	662	125	297	24	7	299	88	-9	-1	-1	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5352	4820	1122	252	24	107	393	1289	99	61	48	233	304	362	665	129	294	24	7	299	88	-72	-7	-7	+93	+113	12.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	137	31	3	13	48	157	12	7	6	234	305	364	669	130	297	24	7	299	88	-9	-1	-1	+12	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Cardinals · 139 PAwOBA .450 → .292 (−158)K% 18.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.99%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.07%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	—	7.05%
HBP% /PA	4.32%	—	×0.700	—	—	3.02%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.994	—	16.53%
Doubles /BIP	15.56%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.994	—	9.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.994	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	—	2.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age unknown — no age adjustment. Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .450 → .292; ISO .252 → .141; BABIP .404 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.3	2,870	57	33	234	302	363	+51	+32	8.9	7.6
/162	664	13	8	+11.9	+7.4	2.1	pk7: 6
#5Scott Servais'91-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,778 PA	4.2	2,778	63	3	235*	296*	373*	+49	+0	6.5	6.9
/162	664	15	1	+11.7	+0.1	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sebastian Rojas (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	220/287/324	104	289	1	1	25%	7%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Deivy Grullón 2014 · A	18	46→45	38→55	48→30	44	218/266/297	79	275	4	4	22%	6%	59	-1.6	211/252/305	94	288	8	2	28%	5%	56	-1.9	236/277/397	161	310	22	0	31%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2010 · A	18	46→48	39→55	46→30	42	218/278/303	85	312	6	7	31%	7%	65	-1.2	216/254/361	145	265	18	3	26%	4%	71	-0.8	242/283/403	161	284	21	0	23%	4%	90	+0.4
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→51	43→55	48→45	42	203/262/304	101	271	11	4	29%	6%	61	-1.5	241/298/398	157	309	18	7	27%	7%	95	+1.0	240/301/413	173	300	21	6	27%	7%	98	+0.9
✕Jordan Groshans 2019 · A	19	45→51	42→50	47→30	41	221/269/326	105	288	10	3	26%	5%	68	-1.0	237/295/345	108	323	9	4	27%	7%	82	-0.0	237/306/316	79	299	6	1	21%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Jamie Westbrook 2014 · A	19	45→54	39→50	50→45	43	215/270/310	95	283	4	6	24%	6%	63	-1.3	237/278/349	112	290	10	7	21%	5%	76	-0.4	246/298/391	146	280	17	3	19%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
✕Ali Sánchez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	42→40	50	210/283/277	67	260	5	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	215/266/268	53	272	3	6	21%	6%	53	-2.1	247/298/343	95	318	11	1	25%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Andres Melendez 2019 · A	18	46	37→50	49→40	48	215/276/292	77	257	4	7	18%	6%	62	-1.4	205/273/296	91	276	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.4	189/272/303	114	277	10	2	33%	9%	62	-0.5

Sebastian Rojas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps