Jordan Groshans — OGILVIE

Jordan GroshansSS Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION275 act + 183 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .287 / .365

PA183

HR5

K%23

BB%7

BABIP274

ISO137

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022

CONTACT60

Whiff%

867.2%

xwOBA

100.261

POWER30

Barrel%

102.1

Avg EV

2487.1

EYE40

Chase%

5630.5%

SPEED40

Sprint

3026.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	207	191	42	9	0	4	10	53	3	0	0	220	270	330	599	110	277	26	5	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	207	186	55	13	0	5	15	37	3	0	0	296	358	446	804	151	340	18	7	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	96	87	23	5	0	1	9	32	0	1	1	264	333	356	690	92	407	33	9	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	96	83	28	6	0	2	13	21	0	1	1	337	427	482	909	145	433	22	14	407	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	316	287	69	18	0	7	25	80	1	0	0	240	304	376	680	136	305	25	8	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	316	278	81	23	0	7	34	61	1	0	0	291	371	450	820	158	347	19	11	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	3 teams	—	497	448	102	17	0	3	44	103	2	3	0	228	300	286	585	58	287	21	9	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA	3 teams	—	497	433	114	16	0	4	59	83	2	3	0	263	354	328	682	65	315	17	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	528	482	106	19	1	5	44	102	1	0	0	220	287	295	581	75	269	19	8	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	528	460	112	20	1	6	66	92	1	0	0	243	340	330	670	87	292	17	12	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	383	352	64	9	1	4	26	91	1	0	3	182	240	247	487	65	230	24	7	217	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	383	340	80	14	1	4	38	67	1	0	3	235	314	318	632	82	278	17	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	275	253	60	7	1	2	16	47	4	0	1	237	293	296	589	59	282	17	6	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	2 teams	—	275	243	69	8	1	3	26	38	4	0	1	284	363	362	725	78	324	14	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	ATL	—	275	253	56	8	3	15	19	67	2	0	2	221	281	455	736	233	238	24	7	318	102	+0	-1	+0	+1	+8	0.9
YTD	26	AA	ATL	—	275	244	65	10	4	17	28	52	2	0	2	266	347	549	896	283	273	19	10	387	154	+17	-1	+0	+1	+8	2.5
ROS	26	AA	ATL	2%	183	167	38	6	1	5	13	43	1	0	1	227	287	365	651	137	269	23	7	294	83	-4	-0	-0	+1	+5	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	ATL	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		269	25	0	289	79	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	AA	ATL	—	279	257	57	8	3	15	19	68	2	0	2	222	281	451	732	230	240	24	7	318	101	+0	-1	-0	+1	+8	0.9
TOT	26	AA	ATL	—	458	420	94	14	4	20	32	110	3	0	3	224	283	419	702	195	253	24	7	308	94	-3	-1	-0	+2	+13	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	ATL	27%	360	329	76	12	3	11	26	84	2	1	2	231	291	386	677	155	273	23	7	298	86	-5	-1	-0	+1	+10	0.5
2028	28	MLB	ATL	40%	378	344	80	13	3	11	28	88	3	1	2	233	296	384	680	151	274	23	7	299	87	-5	-1	-1	+1	+11	0.5
2029	29	MLB	ATL	45%	379	344	80	13	3	11	29	89	3	1	2	233	298	384	682	151	275	23	8	299	87	-6	-1	-2	+1	+11	0.4
2027	27	MLB	ATL	27%	97	89	21	3	1	3	7	23	1	0	0	236	299	393	692	157	273	24	7	293	83	-2	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.1
2028	28	MLB	ATL	40%	151	138	32	5	1	5	11	35	1	0	1	232	293	391	685	159	274	23	7	294	83	-3	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	29	MLB	ATL	45%	169	153	35	6	1	5	13	40	1	0	1	229	293	379	672	150	275	24	8	294	83	-3	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	486	445	105	14	3	14	35	112	3	0	2	236	296	375	671	139	283	23	7	292	82	-10	-1	-2	+3	+14	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	141	19	4	19	47	150	4	0	3	237	297	378	675	141	284	23	7	292	82	-13	-1	-3	+4	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	3602	3284	740	128	13	64	270	812	21	7	12	225	288	331	619	105	278	23	7	275	69	-127	-3	-4	+13	+102	-2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	134	23	2	12	49	147	4	1	2	226	290	332	622	106	279	23	8	275	69	-23	-1	-1	+2	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	207	186	55	13	0	5	15	37	3	0	0	296	358	446	804	151	340	18	7	354	129	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2019	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	96	83	28	6	0	2	13	21	0	1	1	337	427	482	909	145	433	22	14	407	169	+8	-0	—	—	+3	1.0
2021	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	316	278	81	23	0	7	34	61	1	0	0	291	371	450	820	158	347	19	11	363	136	+13	+0	—	—	+9	2.2
2022	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	65	61	16	0	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	262	308	311	619	49	319	20	6	284	75	-2	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.1
2022	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	412	353	94	15	0	3	54	65	2	3	0	266	367	334	701	68	316	16	13	324	106	+3	+1	—	—	+12	1.5
2022	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	20	19	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	211	250	263	513	53	286	25	5	235	38	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	528	460	112	20	1	6	66	92	1	0	0	243	340	330	670	87	292	17	12	310	95	-3	+0	—	—	+15	1.2
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	63	57	13	2	0	1	6	11	0	0	1	228	302	316	617	88	267	17	10	284	75	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2024	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	320	283	67	12	1	3	32	56	1	0	2	237	316	318	634	81	281	18	10	289	79	-7	-1	—	—	+9	0.1
2025	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	25	20	4	2	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	200	360	300	660	100	235	12	16	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	250	223	65	6	1	3	22	35	3	0	1	291	363	368	731	76	332	14	9	332	112	+3	-0	—	—	+7	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	65	61	16	0	0	1	4	13	0	0	0	262	308	311	619	49	319	20	6	284	75	-2	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	8	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
	/162	664	24	2	232	309	406	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#2Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	5	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	13	0	248	314	368	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#4Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	5	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	14	0	252	305	394	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	5	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	13	4	254	296	379	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	487	14	1	236	293	372	+5	-1	1.0	1.0
	/162	664	18	1	236	293	372	+6.4	-1.9	1.3	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jordan Groshans (OGILVIE)	26	60	30	40	40	224/283/419	195	253	20	0	24%	7%	94	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leonardo Reginatto 2016 · AAA	26	54→61	36→30	43→45	47	253/301/322	69	302	3	7	17%	6%	75	-0.0	233/275/299	66	294	4	6	21%	5%	58	-1.2	227/268/283	56	292	3	5	23%	4%	49	-1.1
✕Ray Chang 2010 · AAA	26	51→54	39→40	40	47	242/303/342	100	286	5	5	17%	6%	82	+0.5	242/297/331	89	285	6	3	17%	6%	76	+0.1	251/298/318	67	306	3	1	18%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Emerson Landoni 2015 · AA	26	50→60	37→40	39→45	44	238/290/309	71	296	5	5	21%	6%	67	-0.5	245/286/314	69	294	3	6	17%	5%	66	-0.6	252/287/313	61	297	1	3	15%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Angel Sanchez 2010 · AAA	26	51→60	39→40	42→45	46	243/288/331	87	290	5	4	18%	6%	72	-0.2	251/298/320	69	293	4	7	15%	6%	73	-0.1	259/309/315	56	296	2	7	13%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Luis Martinez 2011 · AAA	26	54→62	38→40	44→40	49	254/317/332	78	322	5	4	22%	8%	85	+0.7	244/301/335	91	322	5	5	24%	7%	79	+0.3	238/293/331	93	319	4	2	25%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2016 · MLB	26	51→61	39→40	41→50	54	242/322/329	86	286	6	4	17%	9%	87	+0.8	235/298/332	97	276	7	4	17%	7%	77	+0.1	229/289/319	91	269	8	4	18%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Yolbert Sanchez 2023 · AAA	26	54→56	37→30	43→45	43	255/293/323	68	305	6	9	18%	5%	72	-0.2	255/288/321	66	316	4	8	20%	4%	69	-0.4	266/294/322	57	331	3	6	20%	3%	69	-0.3
✕Ofilio Castro 2010 · AAA	26	53→55	38→40	36→45	46	253/296/336	83	298	5	3	17%	6%	76	+0.1	224/275/310	86	269	6	6	18%	6%	61	-1.0	188/239/241	53	222	2	2	16%	5%	27	-1.2
✕Marcos Cabral 2010 · AAA	26	50→53	43→45	43→40	47	242/297/358	115	291	9	3	20%	7%	83	+0.6	234/279/341	107	283	10	6	20%	6%	71	-0.3	232/265/315	84	271	9	3	18%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Kevin Flores 2011 · AAA	26	53	38→45	39→45	45	249/296/328	79	304	5	6	19%	5%	74	-0.1	262/297/366	104	322	9	3	21%	4%	85	+0.7	279/316/376	98	323	11	0	17%	4%	93	+0.7
✕Nicolas Garcia 2006 · AAA	26	53→56	40	39→45	41	253/287/352	100	309	7	6	20%	4%	77	+0.1	244/273/332	88	280	8	5	16%	3%	66	-0.6	243/269/321	77	269	7	3	13%	3%	59	-0.5
✕Iván De Jesús Jr. 2013 · MLB	26	49→59	38→40	47→50	42	234/279/314	79	303	5	6	24%	5%	63	-0.8	255/303/352	97	341	5	6	25%	6%	84	+0.6	263/314/359	97	350	5	4	25%	6%	88	+0.6
✕Grant Green 2014 · MLB	26	53→61	44→45	44→45	41	258/296/378	120	321	11	7	23%	4%	88	+0.9	261/291/377	116	327	9	6	22%	4%	85	+0.7	269/293/379	110	334	7	4	21%	3%	83	+0.4
✕Chris Gutierrez 2010 · AAA	26	47→57	37→40	38→45	49	219/294/299	79	291	4	3	24%	9%	67	-0.5	232/308/304	72	319	3	8	25%	9%	74	-0.1	228/307/295	67	309	2	7	24%	9%	68	-0.4
✕Tyler Smith 2017 · AAA	26	51→54	39→40	47→50	45	242/293/331	89	302	7	9	22%	6%	75	-0.0	205/261/296	91	271	8	7	26%	6%	53	-1.5	174/240/252	78	234	7	4	28%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Konrad Schmidt 2010 · AAA	25	51→59	41→45	38→40	41	246/287/343	97	307	8	3	22%	4%	76	+0.0	242/281/353	111	306	9	5	23%	4%	76	+0.0	236/276/346	110	300	9	4	24%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Garrett Weber 2015 · AAA	26	51→54	42→45	45→40	39	245/287/350	105	311	9	4	24%	4%	77	+0.1	238/289/331	93	317	7	4	26%	6%	72	-0.2	237/291/320	83	317	6	1	26%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Ramón Cabrera 2017 · MLB	27	53→59	40	42→40	45	253/287/340	87	287	8	4	15%	5%	73	-0.1	221/268/337	116	264	12	7	21%	5%	66	-0.6	181/230/299	117	214	12	2	22%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Mike Ohlman 2017 · AAA	26	48→56	43→45	41→40	42	233/284/339	107	313	10	3	28%	7%	72	-0.2	194/261/316	122	313	15	6	40%	8%	58	-1.2	155/232/271	116	256	16	4	43%	9%	32	-1.5
✕Adam Weisenburger 2015 · AAA	26	47	40	41→30	47	223/300/318	95	289	8	4	24%	8%	76	+0.0	217/299/304	87	284	6	6	24%	8%	72	-0.2	196/287/267	71	252	3	3	21%	9%	54	-0.8