Oliver Chapman

C DSL LAD Bautista

Age 18 R/R ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	121	.227/.433/.364	2	3	56	—	.149/.333/.223
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBLAD	231	.208/.301/.293	2	3	73	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBLAD	66	.208/.302/.299	1	1	78	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBLAD	161	.212/.306/.311	2	3	82	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA72

wRC+69

ISO59

BB%52

Chase%49

Z-Con%46

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAlirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 102 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .299 / .291

PA102

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2036	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	88	20	6	0	2	19	28	13	3	2	227	433	364	797	136	305	23	16	376	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	94	14	4	0	1	13	34	13	3	2	149	333	223	557	74	193	28	11	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	94	14	4	0	1	13	34	13	3	2	149	333	223	557	74	217	28	11	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	88	20	6	0	2	19	28	13	3	2	227	433	364	797	136	305	23	16	376	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	94	14	4	0	1	13	34	13	3	2	149	333	223	557	74	193	28	11	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	121	94	14	4	0	1	13	34	13	3	2	149	333	223	557	74	193	28	11	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	231	202	41	8	1	2	19	63	8	3	1	208	301	293	595	85	289	27	8	276	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	193	168	35	7	1	2	16	52	7	3	1	213	306	306	612	93	291	27	8	283	78	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	20	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	332	289	62	12	2	4	28	88	12	5	2	216	310	317	628	101	292	27	8	289	82	-7	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.6
2030	21	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	437	382	84	17	2	7	37	115	15	7	3	220	313	327	640	108	293	26	8	294	85	-8	+0	+0	+8	+9	1.0
2031	22	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	511	446	99	19	3	8	43	133	17	8	4	223	315	336	651	113	294	26	8	298	88	-8	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.3
2032	23	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	520	454	102	20	3	9	44	134	17	9	4	225	317	344	660	118	295	26	8	301	90	-6	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2033	24	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	454	103	20	3	10	44	134	17	9	4	226	318	347	665	120	296	26	8	303	91	-6	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2034	25	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	454	103	20	3	10	44	134	17	8	4	227	318	349	667	122	296	26	8	303	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2035	26	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	520	454	103	20	3	10	44	134	17	8	4	227	318	350	668	123	296	26	8	304	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2036	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	455	103	20	3	10	44	134	16	8	4	226	317	347	664	122	295	26	8	302	91	-6	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.5
2037	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	455	103	20	3	10	44	136	16	8	4	224	315	342	657	119	294	26	8	300	89	-7	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.3
2038	29	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	520	455	101	19	3	9	44	137	16	8	5	221	312	336	648	115	292	26	8	296	86	-8	-0	-1	+9	+11	1.1
2039	30	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	520	455	99	19	2	9	44	139	16	7	6	218	308	328	636	110	290	27	8	291	83	-10	-1	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2040	31	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	504	442	94	18	2	8	42	136	15	7	8	214	304	318	621	104	287	27	8	285	79	-13	-2	-3	+9	+11	0.3
2041	32	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	489	431	90	17	2	7	40	135	15	6	15	208	297	305	602	97	283	28	8	278	74	-15	-5	-4	+9	+11	-0.4
2028	19	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	66	59	12	2	0	1	5	18	2	1	0	208	302	299	601	91	284	27	8	279	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	161	140	30	6	1	2	14	43	6	3	1	212	306	311	617	98	285	27	9	285	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.3
2030	21	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	237	207	44	8	1	4	20	62	8	4	2	216	309	321	630	105	286	26	8	290	85	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	289	253	54	10	1	5	24	75	10	5	2	219	311	330	641	111	287	26	8	294	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2032	23	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	299	262	58	11	1	6	25	77	10	5	2	221	313	338	651	117	288	26	8	297	90	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2033	24	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	296	260	58	11	1	6	25	76	9	5	2	222	314	341	655	119	289	26	8	299	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2034	25	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	295	259	58	11	1	6	25	76	9	5	2	223	315	343	658	120	289	26	8	300	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2035	26	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	294	258	57	11	1	6	25	76	9	5	2	223	315	344	659	121	289	26	9	300	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2036	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	289	253	56	10	1	6	25	75	9	5	2	222	314	342	655	120	288	26	9	299	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2037	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	286	251	55	10	1	6	24	75	9	4	2	220	312	337	648	117	287	26	8	296	89	-4	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.7
2038	29	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	302	264	58	11	1	6	26	80	9	4	3	217	309	330	639	113	286	26	9	292	86	-5	-0	-1	+5	+7	0.6
2039	30	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	288	253	54	10	1	5	24	77	9	4	3	214	305	322	627	108	284	27	8	288	83	-6	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2040	31	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	271	238	49	9	1	4	23	73	8	4	4	210	300	312	612	102	281	27	8	282	79	-7	-1	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2041	32	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	280	247	50	9	1	4	23	77	8	4	8	205	294	300	594	95	276	28	8	274	74	-9	-2	-2	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3653	3204	693	129	13	67	308	960	115	58	35	216	308	327	635	111	286	26	8	292	85	-59	-2	-6	+65	+79	7.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	123	23	2	12	55	171	20	10	6	216	307	326	633	111	285	26	8	292	85	-11	-0	-1	+12	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6849	5978	1314	256	36	115	579	1803	229	106	70	220	313	332	645	113	293	26	8	294	85	-112	-7	-10	+120	+146	13.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	124	24	3	11	55	171	22	10	7	219	312	330	642	111	290	26	8	294	85	-11	-1	-1	+12	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#3Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#4Bill Rariden'09-'20 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	7	47	232*	319*	351*	+59	+0	11.8	12.1
/162	664	1	9	+11.8	+0.1	2.4	pk7: 12
#5Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.7	3,755	63	58	222	310	335	+67	+36	10.6	8.9
/162	664	11	10	+11.9	+6.4	1.9	pk7: 7
#6Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oliver Chapman (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	206/299/291	85	289	1	2	27%	8%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Deivy Grullón 2014 · A	18	46→45	38→55	48→30	44	218/266/297	79	275	4	4	22%	6%	59	-1.6	211/252/305	94	288	8	2	28%	5%	56	-1.9	236/277/397	161	310	22	0	31%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2010 · A	18	46→48	39→55	46→30	42	218/278/303	85	312	6	7	31%	7%	65	-1.2	216/254/361	145	265	18	3	26%	4%	71	-0.8	242/283/403	161	284	21	0	23%	4%	90	+0.4
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Angel Cepeda 2024 · A	18	45→43	37→45	52→55	46	205/294/283	79	301	4	9	30%	9%	68	-1.0	205/276/298	93	338	8	17	38%	7%	64	-1.3	200/276/300	101	335	10	19	40%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Arjun Nimmala 2024 · A	18	47→36	38→55	52→50	53	213/315/299	86	316	4	8	30%	12%	80	-0.2	197/270/351	154	284	16	9	34%	8%	75	-0.5	193/266/356	164	264	18	10	33%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	43→50	38→50	51→65	51	204/279/286	82	265	5	10	24%	9%	62	-1.4	201/264/285	84	268	5	34	25%	7%	56	-1.9	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	44→50	51	186/280/245	59	267	2	10	28%	10%	55	-2.0	186/259/249	63	277	2	15	31%	8%	47	-2.6	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Welbyn Francisca 2024 · A	18	44→41	39→45	50→55	48	208/283/300	92	277	5	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	228/294/332	104	296	9	20	24%	8%	78	-0.3	225/294/339	114	289	12	24	25%	9%	78	-0.2

Oliver Chapman

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps