Angel Cepeda — OGILVIE

Angel CepedaSS South Bend Cubs

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 185 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†40

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .257 / .248

PA185

HR2

SB5

K%39

BB%7

BABIP297

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$10M		$11M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	99	21	3	2	1	10	42	6	5	1	212	322	313	635	101	345	36	9	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	91	26	4	3	1	18	28	6	5	1	286	435	429	863	143	391	24	15	387	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	240	216	44	7	3	2	19	87	3	21	6	204	277	292	569	88	326	36	8	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	240	208	62	8	5	3	27	59	3	21	6	298	387	428	814	130	399	25	11	364	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	400	70	10	2	7	21	212	12	27	7	175	238	263	500	88	348	49	5	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	381	95	14	5	8	40	136	12	27	7	249	339	375	715	126	367	31	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	CHC	—	135	115	20	2	0	1	13	56	6	4	1	174	291	217	508	43	322	41	10	247	47	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
YTD	20	A+	CHC	—	135	110	26	3	1	2	18	41	6	4	1	236	373	336	709	100	353	30	13	331	112	+2	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.8
ROS	20	A+	CHC	0%	185	165	29	4	1	2	13	73	5	5	1	176	257	248	505	73	293	39	7	237	40	-13	+1	-0	+2	+5	-0.5
ROS	20	MLB	CHC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						294	0	0	219	26	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	20	A+	CHC	—	136	116	20	2	0	1	13	56	6	4	1	172	289	216	504	43	317	41	10	246	47	-8	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.3
TOT	20	A+	CHC	—	320	280	49	6	1	3	26	129	11	9	2	175	271	236	507	61	307	40	8	241	43	-21	+1	-0	+3	+9	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CHC	35%	508	454	87	13	3	9	37	188	12	11	3	192	270	293	563	101	296	37	7	258	56	-25	+1	-0	+5	+14	-0.5
2028	22	MLB	CHC	49%	564	504	101	15	3	13	42	200	13	12	3	200	279	319	599	119	297	35	7	271	65	-22	+1	-0	+6	+16	0.1
2029	23	MLB	CHC	54%	602	538	110	17	3	15	46	208	13	12	3	204	283	331	614	126	298	35	8	278	71	-20	+1	-0	+6	+17	0.5
2030	24	MLB	CHC	55%	623	556	115	18	3	16	48	212	14	12	3	207	286	336	623	129	298	34	8	283	75	-18	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.7
2031	25	MLB	CHC	56%	632	564	117	18	3	17	49	214	14	11	3	207	287	340	628	133	298	34	8	285	76	-17	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.8
2032	26	MLB	CHC	56%	638	569	118	18	3	17	50	216	14	11	3	207	288	339	627	132	298	34	8	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.9
2033	27	MLB	CHC	55%	636	566	117	18	3	17	51	216	14	11	3	207	288	339	628	133	298	34	8	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.9
2034	28	MLB	CHC	55%	631	561	116	18	3	17	51	215	14	10	3	207	289	340	630	134	298	34	8	285	76	-17	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.7
2035	29	MLB	CHC	53%	620	551	113	17	3	16	50	212	14	9	2	205	288	334	622	129	297	34	8	283	75	-18	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.6
2036	30	MLB	CHC	57%	609	541	111	17	3	16	50	210	13	9	2	205	288	336	624	131	296	34	8	281	73	-19	+1	-3	+7	+17	0.4
2037	31	MLB	CHC	60%	595	529	107	16	3	15	48	207	13	8	2	202	285	329	614	127	294	35	8	277	70	-20	+1	-3	+6	+17	0.1
2027	21	MLB	CHC	35%	176	157	30	5	1	3	13	65	4	4	1	191	270	293	563	102	298	37	7	242	43	-11	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.4
2028	22	MLB	CHC	49%	274	245	49	8	1	6	21	97	6	6	1	200	279	314	594	114	298	35	8	255	53	-14	+1	-0	+3	+8	-0.3
2029	23	MLB	CHC	54%	327	292	60	9	2	8	25	113	7	6	2	205	284	332	616	127	299	35	8	263	60	-15	+0	-0	+4	+9	-0.2
2030	24	MLB	CHC	55%	345	307	64	10	2	9	27	117	8	6	2	208	289	342	631	134	300	34	8	268	63	-14	+0	-0	+4	+10	-0.1
2031	25	MLB	CHC	56%	354	315	66	10	2	10	28	120	8	6	2	210	291	349	640	140	300	34	8	270	65	-14	+0	-0	+4	+10	-0.0
2032	26	MLB	CHC	56%	359	320	67	10	2	10	28	122	8	6	2	209	289	347	636	137	300	34	8	271	65	-14	+0	-0	+4	+10	0.0
2033	27	MLB	CHC	55%	352	313	66	10	2	10	28	119	8	6	2	211	292	351	644	141	300	34	8	271	66	-14	+0	-0	+4	+10	0.0
2034	28	MLB	CHC	55%	346	307	64	10	2	9	28	118	8	6	1	208	292	342	634	134	299	34	8	270	65	-14	+1	-1	+4	+10	-0.0
2035	29	MLB	CHC	53%	331	294	61	9	2	9	27	113	7	5	1	207	290	344	633	136	298	34	8	268	64	-14	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.1
2036	30	MLB	CHC	57%	348	309	64	10	2	9	28	120	8	5	1	207	290	340	630	133	297	34	8	266	62	-15	+1	-1	+4	+10	-0.2
2037	31	MLB	CHC	60%	354	314	64	10	2	9	29	123	8	5	1	204	288	334	622	131	295	35	8	262	59	-16	+1	-2	+4	+10	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3567	3174	655	101	20	92	282	1227	80	61	16	206	288	338	625	131	300	34	8	265	61	-156	+6	-7	+38	+101	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	120	18	4	17	51	224	15	11	3	208	289	341	630	133	302	34	8	265	61	-28	+1	-1	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	7633	6813	1376	209	41	180	585	2712	174	174	45	202	282	324	606	122	302	36	8	274	68	-275	+17	-12	+82	+216	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	117	18	3	15	50	231	15	15	4	202	282	321	603	119	303	36	8	274	68	-23	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	91	26	4	3	1	18	28	6	5	1	286	435	429	863	143	391	24	15	387	155	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	240	208	62	8	5	3	27	59	3	21	6	298	387	428	814	130	399	25	11	364	136	+10	+2	—	—	+7	1.9
2025	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	381	95	14	5	8	40	136	12	27	7	249	339	375	715	126	367	31	9	326	107	+4	+3	—	—	+12	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Yuniesky Betancourtlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,278 PA	9	4,278	80	30	261	285	388	+41	-20	6.1	7.2
	/162	664	12	5	261	285	388	+6.4	-3.1	1.0	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,567	90	61	206	284	334	+38	-6	3.3	3.1
	/162	664	17	11	206	284	334	+7.1	-1.2	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Angel Cepeda (OGILVIE)	20	40	47	44	49	175/271/236	61	307	3	9	40%	8%	43	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→55	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	196/264/293	97	301	10	5	36%	6%	54	-1.4	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	40→50	41→50	47→55	38	197/248/296	99	280	8	13	32%	5%	46	-2.0	223/270/347	124	311	11	16	30%	5%	69	-0.4	219/282/363	144	293	15	21	29%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Jose Caguana 2021 · A	19	41	40→55	49→45	35	194/247/288	94	316	8	8	39%	6%	44	-2.1	195/255/292	97	405	9	8	50%	7%	49	-1.8	178/254/336	158	260	23	7	39%	8%	60	-0.4
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	44	39→50	50→55	35	205/259/286	81	318	6	10	36%	5%	49	-1.8	217/276/316	99	313	9	18	32%	6%	64	-0.8	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Rymer Liriano 2011 · A	20	37→47	42→50	49→55	33	184/227/281	97	294	10	15	40%	5%	33	-2.9	234/281/361	127	320	12	26	29%	5%	78	+0.2	242/293/374	131	335	13	27	30%	5%	84	+0.6
✕Yunior Garcia 2021 · A	20	39→49	42→45	48→30	34	194/242/299	105	301	10	7	38%	5%	45	-2.1	221/271/332	111	330	10	4	34%	5%	66	-0.6	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Jonathan Galvez 2011 · A	20	42→46	43→50	49→55	43	202/278/314	112	303	11	13	35%	8%	65	-0.7	224/275/349	125	327	12	19	33%	6%	72	-0.2	230/282/341	111	315	10	15	29%	6%	69	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	43	38→40	49→55	44	200/281/273	73	300	6	17	33%	8%	56	-1.3	202/260/281	79	348	6	8	41%	6%	48	-1.9	177/223/243	65	328	7	2	46%	5%	19	-1.1
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A	19	37	38→45	46→50	37	179/239/262	83	292	6	10	38%	7%	34	-2.8	183/273/286	103	276	11	8	35%	9%	57	-1.2	165/268/271	106	240	13	6	34%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Bubba Thompson 2018 · A	20	42→52	42→50	45→65	36	205/254/310	105	295	9	9	33%	5%	53	-1.5	195/243/293	98	336	7	20	42%	5%	43	-2.2	244/287/374	130	337	13	46	30%	4%	79	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→40	43→55	47→50	36	194/233/304	111	269	10	5	32%	4%	42	-2.3	197/238/344	147	275	17	6	34%	5%	56	-1.3	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Nelson Velázquez 2019 · A	20	39→38	41→60	50	33	184/236/276	93	327	10	9	45%	6%	37	-2.7	206/250/319	113	336	12	9	40%	5%	53	-1.5	205/274/399	195	264	27	12	33%	8%	84	+0.5