Angel Cepeda

SS South Bend Cubs
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1001ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKCHC240.298/.387/.42832157—.207/.277/.290
202519ACHC433.249/.339/.37582748—.187/.259/.273
202620A+/ROKCHC325.257/.382/.440121285—.215/.317/.344
2027PROJMLE21MLBCHC1.194/.276/.3040065-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB22MLBCHC91.200/.283/.32322720.0
2029PROJ49% MLB23MLBCHC170.205/.288/.33544770.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
wOBA74
BB%73
wRC+72
ISO62
Chase%60
Speed58
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 88%
CompsJack Brannigan (age 22) · Kevin Padlo (age 21) · Jorge Alcantara (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .276 / .304
PA1
HR0
K%35
BB%8
BABIP289
ISO102
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.40.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-3$1M———
Totals $3M $3M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 11791 26431 18286 51 286435429863 143391 2415 387 60 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Cubs — 240208 62853 27593 216 298387428814 130399 2511 364 57 — — — — — —
202519 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433381 951458 4013612 277 249339375715 126367 319 326 48 — — — — — —
202620 A+South Bend Cubs — 306251 679111 44838 122 267393442835 175350 2714 373 93 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Cubs — 1917 2011 1101 00 118211412622 294167 535 270 -36 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 11797 18320 12356 51 186313258571 72255 3010 257 60 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 240217 45632 18863 216 207277290568 83318 368 253 57 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433395 741036 2619412 277 187259273532 86348 456 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 306263 60719 321058 122 228330365695 137327 3410 306 93 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 1917 0000 1141 00 105105 114 745 115 -36 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 11797 18320 12356 51 186313258571 72281 3010 257 60 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Red — 11791 26431 18286 51 286435429863 143391 2415 387 60 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 240217 45632 18863 216 207277290568 83328 368 253 57 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 240208 62853 27593 216 298387428814 130399 2511 364 57 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433395 741036 2619412 277 187259273532 86349 456 239 48 — — — — — —
202519 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433381 951458 4013612 277 249339375715 126367 319 326 48 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 325280 60719 331209 122 214317343660 129331 3710 295 86 — — — — — —
202620 A+ RAW2 teams — 325268 699212 45939 122 257382440822 183343 2914 367 86 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 11798 18320 12356 51 184313255568 71255 3010 257 60 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 240217 45632 18863 216 207277290568 83318 368 253 57 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433392 741036 2619412 277 189259276534 87348 456 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 325280 60719 331209 122 214317343660 129315 3710 295 86 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 240217 45632 18863 216 207277290568 83318 368 253 57 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 433392 741036 2619412 277 189259276534 87348 456 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLE2 teams — 325280 60719 331209 122 214317343660 129315 3710 295 86 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECHC 0% 435388 741129 351539 112 192274302577 110286 358 264 65 -18 +1 -0 +5 +9 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXCHC 0% 11 0000 000 00 194276304579 110289 00 265 65 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECHC 35% 262233 46716 22895 61 199282322603 122287 348 275 72 -9 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.0
202923 MLB MLECHC 49% 351312 641029 291167 82 204287335622 130288 338 282 77 -10 +1 -0 +4 +8 0.2
203024 MLB MLECHC 53% 409363 7612211 351328 92 208291343634 135289 329 286 80 -10 +1 -0 +4 +9 0.4
203125 MLB MLECHC 55% 440392 8213212 371408 92 211293348641 138289 328 290 82 -9 +1 -0 +5 +10 0.6
203226 MLB MLECHC 56% 456406 8513213 391438 82 212295351646 139289 319 291 83 -9 +1 -0 +5 +10 0.6
203327 MLB MLECHC 55% 461410 8714213 401458 82 211294348642 137289 319 290 82 -10 +1 -0 +5 +10 0.6
203428 MLB MLECHC 55% 459409 8413212 391458 72 209292344636 135288 328 287 81 -11 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.4
203529 MLB MLECHC 53% 450401 8313212 381448 51 207289338627 131287 328 284 78 -12 +1 -2 +5 +10 0.2
203630 MLB MLECHC 57% 439392 8012211 371427 41 204286331616 126285 328 279 75 -13 +0 -2 +5 +10 -0.1
202822 MLB CTXCHC 35% 9182 16212 7312 20 200283323605 122290 348 275 72 -3 +0 -0 +1 +2 0.0
202923 MLB CTXCHC 49% 170151 31514 14563 41 205288335623 130291 338 282 77 -5 +0 -0 +2 +4 0.1
203024 MLB CTXCHC 53% 216192 40616 18704 51 209292343635 134292 328 287 80 -5 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.2
203125 MLB CTXCHC 55% 241214 44716 21774 51 212294349643 137292 329 290 82 -5 +1 -0 +3 +5 0.3
203226 MLB CTXCHC 56% 254225 49827 22805 51 213295351647 138292 319 292 83 -5 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.4
203327 MLB CTXCHC 55% 254225 48817 22805 41 212295349643 137292 319 290 82 -5 +0 -0 +3 +6 0.3
203428 MLB CTXCHC 55% 251224 47816 21804 41 210293344637 134291 328 288 81 -6 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.2
203529 MLB CTXCHC 53% 240214 44716 20774 31 208290338628 130290 328 284 78 -6 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXCHC 57% 250223 45716 21814 21 205287331617 126288 328 280 75 -7 +0 -1 +3 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19671750 364581050 16663235 348 208290338628 130292 328 286 75 -48 +4 -4 +21 +43 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 12019317 5520912 113 208290339629 131290 328 286 75 -16 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 50524494 91913827120 4221705101 13432 204287327615 123297 348 279 75 -100 +7 -7 +42 +85 2.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 11818315 5421913 174 204286324610 119297 348 279 75 -17 +1 -1 +7 +14 0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 306 PAwOBA .368 → .306 (−62)K% 27.1% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.12%÷1.000×1.270——34.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.38%÷1.000×0.710—×1.02710.48%
HBP% /PA2.61%—×0.790—×1.0272.12%
Singles /BIP27.38%÷1.000×0.920×1.024×1.02726.49%
Doubles /BIP5.36%÷1.000×0.810×1.024×1.0274.56%
Triples /BIP0.60%÷1.000×0.850×1.024×1.0270.53%
Home runs /BIP6.55%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0275.38%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .368 → .306; ISO .175 → .140; BABIP .350 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 19 PAwOBA .262 → .115 (−148)K% 52.6% → 75.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA52.63%÷1.000×1.440——75.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.26%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9853.21%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.720—×0.9853.73%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.9850.00%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.720—×0.98510.13%
Home runs /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.780—×0.98510.98%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .262 → .115; ISO .294 → .103; BABIP .167 → .114. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 433 PAwOBA .317 → .239 (−78)K% 31.4% → 44.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.41%÷0.956×1.360——44.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.24%÷1.106×0.690—×1.0305.94%
HBP% /PA2.77%—×0.780—×1.0302.23%
Singles /BIP27.76%÷0.990×0.920×1.016×1.03027.00%
Doubles /BIP5.71%÷0.968×0.830×1.016×1.0305.13%
Triples /BIP2.04%÷1.150×0.910×1.016×1.0301.69%
Home runs /BIP3.27%÷0.925×0.800—×1.0302.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .317 → .239; ISO .126 → .092; BABIP .367 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 240 PAwOBA .358 → .253 (−105)K% 24.6% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.58%÷0.989×1.440——35.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.25%÷0.947×0.620—×1.0087.42%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.720—×1.0080.91%
Singles /BIP30.87%÷1.047×0.820×1.032×1.00825.14%
Doubles /BIP5.37%÷0.903×0.720×1.032×1.0084.45%
Triples /BIP3.36%÷1.150×0.720×1.032×1.0082.19%
Home runs /BIP2.01%÷0.935×0.780—×1.0081.69%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .358 → .253; ISO .130 → .090; BABIP .399 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 117 PAwOBA .385 → .257 (−128)K% 23.9% → 29.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.93%÷0.979×1.220——29.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷1.039×0.700—×1.00810.45%
HBP% /PA5.13%—×0.700—×1.0083.62%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.977×0.680×0.985×1.00819.74%
Doubles /BIP6.35%÷0.967×0.600×0.985×1.0083.91%
Triples /BIP4.76%÷1.150×0.600×0.985×1.0082.46%
Home runs /BIP1.59%÷1.090×0.470—×1.0080.69%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .385 → .257; ISO .143 → .079; BABIP .391 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).