Angel Cepeda — OGILVIE

Angel CepedaSS South Bend Cubs

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A+ HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION325 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP302

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	91	26	4	3	1	18	28	6	5	1	286	435	429	863	143	391	24	15	387	148	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	240	208	62	8	5	3	27	59	3	21	6	298	387	428	814	130	399	25	11	364	132	+9	+2	—	—	+5	1.7
2025	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	381	95	14	5	8	40	136	12	27	7	249	339	375	715	126	367	31	9	326	106	+3	+3	—	—	+9	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	98	20	3	2	1	11	41	6	5	1	204	322	306	628	102	306	35	9	268	68	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	240	217	44	6	3	2	18	86	3	21	6	203	273	286	559	83	316	36	8	251	56	-13	+2	—	—	+5	-0.6
2025	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	398	72	10	3	6	23	202	12	27	7	181	247	266	513	85	343	47	5	229	41	-30	+3	—	—	+9	-1.9
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	98	20	3	2	1	11	41	6	5	1	204	322	306	628	102	328	35	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	91	26	4	3	1	18	28	6	5	1	286	435	429	863	143	391	24	15	387	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	240	217	44	6	3	2	18	86	3	21	6	203	273	286	559	83	321	36	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	240	208	62	8	5	3	27	59	3	21	6	298	387	428	814	130	399	25	11	364	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	398	72	10	3	6	23	202	12	27	7	181	247	266	513	85	347	47	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	381	95	14	5	8	40	136	12	27	7	249	339	375	715	126	367	31	9	326	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	99	20	3	2	1	11	41	6	5	1	202	322	303	625	101	306	35	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	240	217	44	6	3	2	18	86	3	21	6	203	273	286	559	83	316	36	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	395	72	10	3	6	23	202	12	27	7	182	247	268	515	86	343	47	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	117	99	20	3	2	1	11	41	6	5	1	202	322	303	625	101	306	35	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	240	217	44	6	3	2	18	86	3	21	6	203	273	286	559	83	316	36	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	433	395	72	10	3	6	23	202	12	27	7	182	247	268	515	86	343	47	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	CHC	—	325	281	57	7	1	9	32	126	9	12	2	203	304	331	635	128	322	39	10	282	77	-9	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	CHC	—	19	17	2	0	1	1	1	10	1	0	0	118	211	412	622	294	167	53	5	270	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	CHC	—	306	251	67	9	1	11	44	83	8	12	2	267	393	442	835	175	350	27	14	373	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A+ MLE	CHC	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		300	33	11	265	66	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A+ MLE	CHC	—	334	289	58	7	1	9	33	129	9	12	2	201	302	325	627	125	318	39	10	281	76	-9	+2	-0	+4	+7	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	35%	468	416	83	12	2	11	39	170	10	11	2	200	284	317	601	118	302	36	8	273	71	-16	+1	-0	+5	+10	0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	CHC	49%	505	447	92	13	3	13	43	175	10	11	2	206	290	336	626	130	301	35	9	285	79	-13	+1	-0	+5	+11	0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	CHC	54%	545	482	102	15	3	15	47	184	11	11	2	212	296	349	645	137	301	34	9	291	83	-11	+1	-0	+6	+12	0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	589	520	112	17	3	17	52	195	12	12	2	215	301	358	659	142	302	33	9	296	86	-10	+2	-0	+6	+13	1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	632	559	120	18	3	19	56	208	12	12	3	215	300	360	659	145	302	33	9	298	88	-9	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	638	563	121	18	3	19	57	210	13	12	3	215	302	359	661	144	302	33	9	299	88	-9	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	636	560	121	18	3	19	58	210	13	11	2	216	304	361	665	145	302	33	9	299	89	-9	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	631	556	119	17	3	19	58	209	12	10	2	214	302	358	660	144	301	33	9	298	88	-9	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	620	546	116	17	3	18	57	207	12	10	2	212	301	353	654	141	301	33	9	296	87	-10	+1	-2	+7	+13	1.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	609	536	113	16	3	18	56	205	12	9	2	211	300	353	652	142	300	34	9	294	85	-11	+1	-3	+7	+13	0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	CHC	52%	595	524	110	16	3	17	55	202	11	8	2	210	298	349	648	139	297	34	9	290	82	-12	+1	-3	+6	+13	0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	576	507	104	15	2	16	53	198	11	7	2	205	294	337	631	132	294	34	9	285	79	-14	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	CHC	59%	547	482	96	13	2	14	50	191	10	6	1	199	288	322	609	122	291	35	9	279	75	-16	+1	-5	+6	+12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	CHC	35%	162	144	29	4	1	4	14	59	3	4	1	201	286	326	612	125	304	36	9	258	71	-6	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	CHC	49%	245	217	45	7	1	6	21	85	5	5	1	207	292	332	624	124	303	35	9	270	79	-6	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	CHC	54%	296	262	56	8	2	8	26	100	6	6	1	214	299	351	650	137	303	34	9	277	83	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	327	289	62	9	2	9	29	108	6	6	1	215	299	353	652	138	304	33	9	281	86	-5	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	354	313	67	10	2	10	31	117	7	7	1	214	299	355	654	141	304	33	9	283	88	-5	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	359	317	68	10	2	10	32	118	7	7	1	215	301	353	654	139	304	33	9	284	88	-5	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	352	310	67	10	2	10	32	116	7	6	1	216	304	358	662	142	304	33	9	284	89	-5	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	346	304	66	10	2	10	32	115	7	6	1	217	306	362	668	145	303	33	9	283	88	-5	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	331	292	62	9	2	9	30	110	6	5	1	212	299	349	648	137	302	33	9	281	87	-5	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	320	282	60	9	2	9	29	108	6	5	1	213	300	355	654	142	301	34	9	279	85	-6	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	CHC	52%	310	272	57	8	2	8	29	105	6	4	1	210	300	342	642	132	299	34	9	275	82	-6	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	324	285	58	8	2	8	30	111	6	4	1	204	293	330	623	126	296	34	9	270	79	-8	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	CHC	59%	323	285	57	8	2	8	29	113	6	4	1	200	287	326	614	126	292	35	9	264	75	-10	+0	-3	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4049	3572	754	110	24	109	364	1365	78	69	13	211	298	347	645	136	304	34	9	277	80	-78	+9	-11	+43	+88	5.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	121	18	4	17	58	219	13	11	2	211	298	346	644	134	305	34	9	277	80	-13	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8390	7419	1546	224	44	224	734	2896	170	183	41	208	294	341	635	133	305	35	9	287	80	-150	+15	-21	+81	+165	9.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	119	17	3	17	57	224	13	14	3	207	293	336	629	129	303	34	9	287	80	-13	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.1	4,049	115	68	211	295	350	+43	-7	8.2	7.1
/162	664	19	11	+7.1	-1.2	1.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Angel Cepeda (OGILVIE)	20	40	47	44	52	190/276/296	106	300	7	10	38%	8%	66	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	73	-0.6	183/264/287	104	286	10	6	37%	8%	58	-1.7	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	40	-0.9
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Rainel Rosario 2009 · A	20	36→46	41→50	45→50	39	175/248/271	96	286	8	9	39%	7%	49	-2.4	207/274/323	116	311	9	9	34%	7%	70	-0.9	249/305/384	135	283	16	6	18%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Sam Huff 2018 · A	20	40	44→55	46→45	37	195/255/311	116	314	12	4	40%	7%	59	-1.6	193/236/327	134	312	16	6	42%	4%	56	-1.9	214/277/388	174	309	26	1	38%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Jonathan Galvez 2011 · A	20	43→48	43→45	49→55	44	206/282/315	109	305	10	13	34%	9%	71	-0.8	229/281/348	119	326	11	19	31%	6%	78	-0.3	235/283/350	115	329	10	23	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	43	38→40	49→55	44	200/281/273	73	300	6	17	33%	8%	61	-1.5	202/260/282	80	343	6	8	40%	6%	54	-2.0	175/223/243	68	314	7	2	44%	5%	29	-1.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2022 · A	20	41	44→50	47→50	41	198/276/319	121	305	10	9	36%	8%	70	-0.9	189/268/291	102	310	9	8	39%	8%	61	-1.5	158/247/253	95	261	8	8	39%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Yunior Garcia 2021 · A	20	39→49	42→50	48→30	34	194/242/299	105	301	10	7	38%	5%	51	-2.2	222/273/339	117	323	12	4	33%	5%	72	-0.7	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Michael Chavis 2016 · A	20	36→46	45→60	45	33	185/227/307	123	285	13	7	39%	5%	48	-2.5	209/257/359	150	286	18	5	33%	5%	72	-0.7	231/287/428	196	298	27	3	31%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	43	41→50	49→50	40	208/261/311	103	288	8	12	30%	6%	61	-1.5	196/250/277	81	270	6	10	28%	6%	49	-2.4	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	37→47	43→55	45→50	46	184/266/293	108	267	10	7	33%	10%	60	-1.6	197/285/328	131	277	13	9	31%	11%	75	-0.5	225/304/406	181	290	21	8	29%	10%	98	+1.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	39→47	41→55	46→55	42	195/250/286	91	268	9	9	30%	6%	51	-2.2	201/262/331	130	269	14	13	29%	7%	67	-1.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→46	48→55	50	40	190/265/329	140	297	16	12	39%	8%	68	-1.0	213/277/339	126	322	13	9	36%	7%	74	-0.5	226/292/386	160	309	20	5	32%	6%	89	+0.3
●Lewis Brinson 2014 · A	20	36→46	46→55	52→50	31	175/230/300	125	322	14	14	48%	6%	48	-2.5	224/274/371	147	327	16	14	35%	6%	80	-0.2	239/290/412	173	299	19	17	26%	6%	93	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps