Rubel Arias

OF DSL LAD Bautista

Age 18 L/L ROK HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	202	.241/.389/.373	3	11	41	—	.147/.268/.224
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBLAD	312	.219/.297/.309	3	6	73	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBLAD	87	.218/.298/.312	1	2	78	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBLAD	184	.221/.302/.322	3	4	82	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%70

K%66

Speed62

ISO58

wOBA50

Z-Con%49

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHector Osorio (age 18) · Carlos Sanchez (age 18) · Hendry Mendez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 171 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .295 / .306

PA171

HR2

K%25

BB%9

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE70

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2038	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	158	38	8	2	3	37	37	2	11	6	241	389	373	762	133	287	18	18	345	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	170	25	5	1	2	26	45	2	11	6	147	268	224	491	76	179	22	13	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	170	25	5	1	2	26	45	2	11	6	147	268	224	491	76	181	22	13	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	158	38	8	2	3	37	37	2	11	6	241	389	373	762	133	287	18	18	345	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	172	25	5	1	2	26	45	2	11	6	145	268	221	489	76	179	22	13	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	—	202	172	25	5	1	2	26	45	2	11	6	145	268	221	489	76	179	22	13	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	LAD	0%	312	278	62	11	3	3	28	78	3	6	1	219	297	309	606	90	291	25	9	277	73	-10	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	LAD	34%	254	226	50	9	2	3	23	63	3	6	2	223	302	320	623	97	293	25	9	284	78	-7	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	LAD	48%	380	338	76	13	3	5	35	93	4	9	3	226	306	330	637	104	294	24	9	289	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	21	MLB MLE	LAD	54%	474	422	96	17	4	7	43	115	6	11	4	229	309	339	648	110	295	24	9	294	85	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2031	22	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	540	480	111	20	4	9	49	130	6	12	4	231	311	346	658	115	296	24	9	298	88	-8	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.1
2032	23	MLB MLE	LAD	58%	585	519	121	21	5	10	54	140	7	14	4	233	313	352	665	119	296	24	9	300	89	-7	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.3
2033	24	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	614	546	128	23	5	11	56	147	7	14	5	234	314	354	668	120	297	24	9	302	90	-7	+1	+0	-4	+13	0.3
2034	25	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	626	557	130	23	5	11	57	149	7	14	5	234	314	355	669	121	297	24	9	302	91	-7	+1	+0	-4	+14	0.4
2035	26	MLB MLE	LAD	57%	634	564	132	23	5	12	58	151	7	14	5	234	314	355	669	121	297	24	9	302	91	-7	+1	+0	-4	+14	0.4
2036	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	634	564	131	23	5	11	58	152	7	14	5	233	313	352	665	119	296	24	9	301	90	-8	+1	+0	-4	+14	0.3
2037	28	MLB MLE	LAD	55%	629	559	130	23	5	11	58	152	7	13	5	231	311	348	659	116	295	24	9	298	88	-9	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.1
2038	29	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	619	550	126	22	5	10	57	152	7	12	5	229	308	341	649	113	294	25	9	294	85	-11	+0	-1	-4	+13	-0.2
2039	30	MLB MLE	LAD	53%	609	543	121	21	4	9	55	151	6	11	5	226	305	333	638	108	292	25	9	289	82	-13	+0	-2	-4	+13	-0.5
2028	19	MLB CTX	LAD	34%	87	78	17	3	1	1	8	22	1	2	1	218	298	312	610	94	285	25	9	279	78	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	LAD	48%	184	163	36	6	1	3	17	45	2	4	1	221	302	322	624	101	287	24	9	284	82	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	21	MLB CTX	LAD	54%	257	228	52	9	2	4	24	62	3	6	2	224	305	331	636	107	288	24	9	289	85	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2031	22	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	306	271	61	10	2	5	28	74	4	7	2	227	307	339	646	112	288	24	9	293	88	-5	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	LAD	58%	337	299	68	12	2	6	31	81	4	8	3	229	309	345	654	116	289	24	9	296	89	-4	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.1
2033	24	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	350	311	71	12	2	7	32	84	4	8	3	229	310	347	657	117	290	24	9	297	90	-4	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2034	25	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	355	315	72	12	2	7	33	85	4	8	3	230	310	348	658	118	290	24	9	298	91	-4	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2035	26	MLB CTX	LAD	57%	359	319	73	12	2	7	33	86	4	8	3	230	310	348	658	118	290	24	9	298	91	-4	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2036	27	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	352	313	71	12	2	7	32	84	4	8	3	228	309	345	654	117	289	24	9	296	90	-4	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2037	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55%	345	306	69	12	2	6	32	84	4	7	3	227	307	340	647	114	288	24	9	293	88	-5	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.0
2038	29	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	331	294	66	11	2	6	30	81	4	6	3	224	304	334	638	110	287	24	9	290	85	-6	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
2039	30	MLB CTX	LAD	53%	321	286	64	11	2	5	29	80	3	6	3	221	301	326	627	105	285	25	9	285	82	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3584	3183	720	122	22	64	329	868	41	78	30	226	307	339	645	112	289	24	9	293	85	-54	+4	-2	-22	+78	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	131	22	4	12	60	157	7	14	5	227	307	341	649	114	289	24	9	293	85	-10	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6971	6190	1411	249	55	113	645	1683	77	158	59	228	309	341	649	113	293	24	9	295	85	-106	+8	-4	-41	+147	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	132	23	5	11	60	157	7	15	6	229	309	343	652	114	294	24	9	295	85	-10	+1	-0	-4	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Bert Haas'37-'51 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,674 PA	4.0	2,674	22	51	258*	313*	395*	-19	-7	3.1	3.5
/162	664	5	13	-4.6	-1.8	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.7	3,755	62	82	232	308	346	-23	+0	2.9	2.8
/162	664	11	14	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 3
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rubel Arias (OGILVIE)	18	50→55	33→38	52→57	70	217/295/306	89	291	2	3	25%	9%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	50→57	39→45	51→45	51	234/299/332	97	275	5	7	16%	8%	80	-0.2	227/296/304	77	285	5	5	20%	9%	73	-0.6	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	45→55	37→40	53→55	62	208/315/286	78	255	3	15	18%	13%	77	-0.3	227/325/310	83	318	4	21	26%	12%	85	+0.2	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	45→55	36→45	50→45	54	206/294/278	71	267	2	9	22%	10%	67	-1.1	203/252/261	58	256	2	6	21%	5%	46	-2.6	279/319/373	94	320	8	6	15%	4%	96	+0.8
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	43→53	41→50	54→60	45	205/273/309	104	282	7	12	28%	8%	65	-1.2	211/272/326	115	344	10	13	38%	7%	69	-0.9	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	220/298/335	114	290	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.1	201/274/317	116	305	8	13	34%	9%	68	-1.0	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Marco Vargas 2023 · A	18	44→46	37→40	50→60	55	207/289/284	77	258	3	13	20%	10%	66	-1.1	207/297/275	68	283	3	18	25%	11%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Derek Bernard 2024 · A	18	43→46	40	54→50	47	206/274/303	97	275	7	16	26%	8%	65	-1.2	215/276/314	99	339	7	13	36%	7%	68	-1.0	218/283/320	102	353	8	12	38%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	46	38→40	48→45	50	212/301/299	87	300	5	8	28%	10%	74	-0.5	199/264/269	70	309	2	9	33%	7%	53	-2.1	176/234/225	50	289	0	8	36%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Jorge Ruiz 2022 · A	18	44→52	36→40	52→50	49	201/280/270	69	241	3	17	17%	7%	60	-1.6	235/288/308	73	291	3	12	19%	5%	70	-0.8	236/286/309	73	301	3	13	21%	5%	67	-0.6
✕Jeisson Rosario 2018 · A	18	48→52	36→45	44→50	49	225/294/290	65	298	3	9	24%	9%	68	-1.0	220/302/286	66	318	3	9	28%	10%	71	-0.8	207/300/312	106	295	10	12	30%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Yeicok Calderon 2010 · A	18	45	36→40	52→45	51	211/299/277	65	280	4	9	24%	10%	68	-1.0	195/262/299	104	279	9	6	31%	8%	59	-1.6	174/238/294	121	251	12	4	34%	7%	48	-0.9

Rubel Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps