Randy Arias

SS DSL Astros Blue

Age 18 R/R ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	204	.226/.412/.329	1	18	43	—	.136/.284/.183
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBHOU	314	.222/.311/.309	2	8	79	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLBHOU	110	.229/.318/.326	1	3	83	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLBHOU	232	.232/.322/.336	3	6	87	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%95

BB%90

Whiff%87

Z-Con%87

Speed83

K%74

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsEduardo Quintero (age 18) · Cristofer Torin (age 18) · Alexander Albertus (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 173 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .309 / .306

PA173

HR1

K%24

BB%11

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$65M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT59

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$30M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	155	35	7	3	1	47	34	2	18	7	226	412	329	741	103	283	17	23	352	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	169	23	4	2	0	33	41	2	18	7	136	284	183	468	47	177	20	16	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	169	23	4	2	0	33	41	2	18	7	136	284	183	468	47	180	20	16	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	155	35	7	3	1	47	34	2	18	7	226	412	329	741	103	283	17	23	352	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	167	23	4	2	0	33	41	2	18	7	138	284	186	470	48	177	20	16	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	204	167	23	4	2	0	33	41	2	18	7	138	284	186	470	48	177	20	16	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	314	275	60	10	3	2	33	76	3	8	1	222	311	309	620	87	294	24	11	285	79	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	HOU	43%	256	224	51	9	3	2	27	61	3	7	1	226	316	321	637	95	296	24	11	292	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2029	20	MLB MLE	HOU	61%	381	334	76	13	4	4	40	90	4	10	2	229	319	332	651	103	297	24	10	297	87	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2030	21	MLB MLE	HOU	68%	475	417	97	17	5	6	49	111	6	13	3	232	322	341	663	109	298	23	10	301	90	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.1
2031	22	MLB MLE	HOU	71%	541	474	110	19	5	8	56	126	6	14	4	234	323	349	672	114	299	23	10	305	92	-5	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	HOU	72%	586	514	122	21	6	10	60	136	7	16	4	236	324	355	679	119	299	23	10	307	94	-4	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.7
2033	24	MLB MLE	HOU	72%	614	539	127	22	6	10	63	142	7	16	4	237	325	357	682	120	300	23	10	309	95	-4	+2	+0	+7	+13	1.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	HOU	71%	626	550	131	23	6	11	64	144	7	16	4	237	326	358	684	121	300	23	10	309	96	-3	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	HOU	71%	634	557	132	23	6	11	65	146	7	16	4	237	326	359	684	121	300	23	10	310	96	-3	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	HOU	70%	634	557	132	23	6	11	65	147	7	16	4	236	325	356	681	120	299	23	10	308	95	-4	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	HOU	69%	629	552	129	22	6	10	65	147	7	15	4	235	323	352	675	117	299	23	10	306	93	-5	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	HOU	67%	619	543	128	22	6	10	64	147	7	14	4	232	320	346	666	113	298	24	10	302	91	-7	+1	-1	+7	+13	1.3
2039	30	MLB MLE	HOU	66%	609	536	123	21	5	9	62	146	6	13	5	230	317	338	655	109	296	24	10	298	88	-9	+1	-2	+7	+13	1.0
2040	31	MLB MLE	HOU	71%	594	523	118	20	5	8	60	145	6	11	5	226	312	329	641	103	294	24	10	292	84	-11	+0	-3	+6	+13	0.5
2041	32	MLB MLE	HOU	68%	576	508	113	19	5	7	57	143	6	10	7	221	307	317	623	96	290	25	10	285	79	-14	-1	-4	+6	+12	0.0
2042	33	MLB MLE	HOU	73%	546	482	104	17	4	6	54	139	5	9	9	215	299	303	602	88	286	25	10	277	73	-17	-2	-4	+6	+12	-0.6
2028	19	MLB CTX	HOU	43%	110	96	22	4	1	1	12	26	1	3	1	229	318	326	644	97	300	24	11	294	83	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	HOU	61%	232	203	47	8	2	3	24	55	3	6	2	232	322	336	658	104	302	24	10	300	87	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2030	21	MLB CTX	HOU	68%	324	283	66	12	3	4	34	76	4	9	2	235	324	345	670	110	302	23	10	304	90	-4	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2031	22	MLB CTX	HOU	71%	385	337	80	14	4	6	40	89	5	10	3	237	326	353	679	116	303	23	10	308	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2032	23	MLB CTX	HOU	72%	424	372	89	16	4	7	44	98	5	11	3	239	327	359	686	120	303	23	10	310	94	-3	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.2
2033	24	MLB CTX	HOU	72%	439	386	92	17	4	7	45	101	5	12	3	240	328	361	689	121	304	23	10	311	95	-3	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.3
2034	25	MLB CTX	HOU	71%	446	392	93	17	4	7	46	103	5	12	3	240	328	362	691	122	304	23	10	312	96	-2	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2035	26	MLB CTX	HOU	71%	450	396	95	17	4	8	46	104	5	12	3	240	328	363	691	123	304	23	10	312	96	-2	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2036	27	MLB CTX	HOU	70%	441	387	92	17	4	7	46	102	5	11	3	239	327	360	687	121	304	23	10	311	95	-3	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.3
2037	28	MLB CTX	HOU	69%	433	380	90	16	4	7	45	102	5	10	3	237	325	356	681	118	303	24	10	308	93	-4	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.1
2038	29	MLB CTX	HOU	67%	414	365	85	15	4	6	42	98	4	9	3	235	323	350	672	115	302	24	10	305	91	-5	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	HOU	66%	401	353	83	15	4	6	41	96	4	9	3	232	319	342	662	110	301	24	10	301	88	-6	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	HOU	71%	421	372	85	15	4	5	42	103	4	8	4	228	315	333	648	104	298	24	10	295	84	-8	+0	-2	+5	+9	0.4
2041	32	MLB CTX	HOU	68%	393	347	77	13	3	5	39	98	4	7	5	223	309	321	630	98	295	25	10	288	79	-10	-1	-2	+4	+9	-0.0
2042	33	MLB CTX	HOU	73%	396	350	76	13	3	4	39	101	4	7	7	217	302	307	609	90	290	26	10	279	73	-13	-1	-3	+4	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5709	5019	1172	209	52	83	585	1352	63	136	48	234	321	345	667	112	301	24	10	303	88	-70	+8	-10	+61	+124	11.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	133	24	6	9	67	154	7	15	5	233	321	343	664	110	302	24	10	303	88	-8	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	8697	7631	1750	301	82	124	902	2053	94	218	72	229	318	339	657	110	296	24	10	299	88	-108	+14	-15	+91	+184	17.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	130	22	6	9	67	153	7	16	5	228	316	335	651	107	294	24	10	299	88	-8	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Billy Rogell'25-'40 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,919 PA	8.9	5,919	42	82	240*	319*	369*	+58	+47	16.9	19.4
/162	664	5	9	+6.5	+5.3	1.9	pk7: 22
#2Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#3Bucky Harris'19-'31 * career totals — 9 seasons, 5,556 PA	8.4	5,556	9	167	242*	319*	362*	+20	+27	14.1	14.6
/162	664	1	20	+2.4	+3.3	1.7	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.9	5,881	86	140	232	316	343	+63	+33	15.8	13.2
/162	664	10	16	+7.1	+3.7	1.8	pk7: 11
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randy Arias (OGILVIE)	18	54→59	30→35	58→63	80	220/309/306	86	294	1	4	24%	11%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Cristofer Torin 2023 · A	18	47→55	35→40	53→50	61	215/316/281	66	255	2	19	15%	12%	76	-0.4	225/306/299	74	281	5	14	20%	10%	76	-0.4	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	43→53	36→45	58→50	59	198/299/266	68	249	3	16	20%	12%	67	-1.1	232/295/324	92	306	6	11	24%	8%	77	-0.3	271/329/396	125	328	10	12	19%	8%	104	+1.3
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	45→55	37→40	53→55	62	208/315/286	78	255	3	15	18%	13%	77	-0.3	227/325/310	83	318	4	21	26%	12%	85	+0.2	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
●L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	53	235/305/308	72	289	4	11	19%	9%	76	-0.4	247/295/316	69	318	4	12	22%	6%	74	-0.6	288/348/379	91	345	5	15	17%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Nelson Rada 2024 · A	18	52→61	36→30	60	51	240/329/312	72	318	3	29	23%	9%	87	+0.4	246/323/306	60	340	2	33	26%	9%	83	+0.1	255/332/312	57	351	2	38	25%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Luis De Leon 2024 · A	18	48	35→30	54→55	65	217/341/276	59	267	2	18	17%	14%	85	+0.2	201/296/256	55	316	3	16	33%	11%	63	-1.4	206/294/250	45	325	3	20	34%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→56	37→40	56→65	55	217/314/292	75	284	3	19	23%	11%	78	-0.3	191/275/274	83	293	5	10	33%	10%	59	-1.7	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕John Gil 2024 · A	18	43→45	36→40	55→60	52	202/288/273	71	266	3	18	23%	10%	63	-1.3	209/283/287	78	275	6	30	24%	9%	64	-1.3	211/283/297	86	272	8	38	24%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Abiatal Avelino 2014 · A	19	50→54	36→45	60→55	50	229/296/300	71	270	2	24	15%	7%	72	-0.7	231/278/311	80	292	4	22	21%	5%	67	-1.1	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1

Randy Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps