Elian Rosario

SS DSL Rangers Blue

Age 18 R/R ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Rangers B…	222	.251/.396/.440	8	3	49	—	.152/.281/.250
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBTEX	332	.234/.310/.336	5	5	85	0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLBTEX	117	.238/.315/.350	2	2	89	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLBTEX	239	.241/.319/.359	5	4	92	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%85

K%84

ISO80

Whiff%74

Z-Con%68

wOBA61

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMichael Arroyo (age 18) · Rubén Tejada (age 18) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 191 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .307 / .333

PA191

HR3

K%23

BB%8

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$71M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 64 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT64

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$32M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	175	44	7	1	8	29	32	13	3	0	251	396	440	836	189	257	14	13	371	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	184	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	152	281	250	531	98	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	184	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	152	281	250	531	98	164	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	175	44	7	1	8	29	32	13	3	0	251	396	440	836	189	257	14	13	371	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	187	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	150	281	246	527	96	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	222	187	28	4	1	4	20	39	13	3	0	150	281	246	527	96	158	18	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	332	296	70	11	3	5	26	77	7	5	2	234	310	336	646	103	298	23	8	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	TEX	43%	271	242	57	9	2	4	21	62	6	5	2	237	315	346	661	109	299	23	8	300	89	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2029	20	MLB MLE	TEX	61%	393	350	84	14	3	7	31	90	9	7	3	240	318	355	673	115	300	23	8	304	92	-4	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.9
2030	21	MLB MLE	TEX	68%	484	431	104	17	4	9	39	110	11	9	4	242	320	362	683	121	301	23	8	308	95	-3	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.3
2031	22	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	548	487	119	20	4	11	44	124	12	10	5	243	322	368	690	125	301	23	8	311	97	-2	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.6
2032	23	MLB MLE	TEX	72%	592	526	129	22	4	12	48	133	13	11	5	245	323	373	696	128	302	22	8	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	TEX	72%	616	548	133	22	4	13	50	138	13	12	5	246	324	375	699	129	302	22	8	314	99	-1	+0	+0	+7	+13	2.0
2034	25	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	627	557	137	23	5	13	51	140	14	12	6	246	324	376	700	130	302	22	8	315	99	-1	+0	+0	+7	+14	2.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	TEX	71%	635	564	139	23	5	14	52	142	14	12	6	246	324	376	700	130	302	22	8	315	99	-1	+0	+0	+7	+14	2.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	TEX	70%	634	564	138	23	5	13	52	143	13	12	6	245	323	373	696	128	302	23	8	313	98	-1	+0	+0	+7	+14	2.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	TEX	69%	629	560	136	23	4	13	51	143	13	11	6	243	321	369	690	126	301	23	8	311	97	-3	-0	-1	+7	+14	1.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	TEX	67%	619	551	132	22	4	12	50	143	13	10	6	241	319	363	682	122	300	23	8	307	94	-4	-0	-1	+7	+13	1.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	TEX	66%	609	543	129	21	4	11	49	142	12	9	7	238	316	355	671	117	299	23	8	303	91	-6	-1	-2	+7	+13	1.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	595	531	125	20	4	11	47	141	12	7	10	234	311	346	657	112	297	24	8	298	87	-9	-3	-3	+6	+13	0.5
2041	32	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	576	515	117	19	3	9	45	139	11	7	17	229	305	334	639	105	293	24	8	290	83	-12	-5	-4	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	TEX	43%	117	104	25	4	1	2	9	27	3	2	1	238	315	350	665	112	299	23	8	301	89	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	TEX	61%	239	213	52	8	2	5	19	55	5	4	2	241	319	359	678	118	300	23	8	306	92	-2	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2030	21	MLB CTX	TEX	68%	330	294	71	11	2	7	26	75	7	6	3	243	321	367	688	124	301	23	8	310	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2031	22	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	390	346	84	13	3	8	32	88	9	7	3	244	323	373	696	128	301	23	8	313	97	-2	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	TEX	72%	428	381	94	15	3	10	35	96	9	8	4	246	324	378	702	132	301	22	8	315	98	-1	+0	+0	+5	+9	1.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	TEX	72%	441	392	96	15	3	10	36	99	10	8	4	247	325	380	705	133	302	22	8	317	99	-1	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2034	25	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	446	397	98	16	3	10	36	100	10	8	4	247	325	381	706	134	302	22	8	317	99	-0	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2035	26	MLB CTX	TEX	71%	451	401	98	16	3	10	37	101	10	8	4	247	325	381	706	134	302	22	8	317	99	-0	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2036	27	MLB CTX	TEX	70%	441	393	96	15	3	10	36	99	9	8	4	246	324	378	702	132	302	22	8	316	98	-1	+0	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2037	28	MLB CTX	TEX	69%	433	386	94	15	3	10	35	99	9	7	4	244	322	373	696	129	301	23	8	313	97	-2	-0	-0	+5	+9	1.2
2038	29	MLB CTX	TEX	67%	414	368	89	14	3	9	34	95	9	6	4	242	320	367	687	125	300	23	8	309	94	-3	-0	-1	+4	+9	0.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	TEX	66%	401	358	85	13	3	8	32	94	8	6	5	239	316	360	676	120	299	23	8	305	91	-4	-1	-1	+4	+9	0.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	388	346	81	13	2	7	31	92	8	5	6	235	312	350	662	115	296	24	8	299	87	-6	-1	-2	+4	+8	0.4
2041	32	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	373	334	77	12	2	7	29	90	7	4	11	230	306	338	643	107	293	24	8	292	83	-8	-4	-2	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5292	4713	1140	180	36	113	427	1210	113	87	59	242	320	367	687	125	301	23	8	310	93	-33	-6	-7	+57	+115	12.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	140	22	4	14	52	149	14	11	7	242	319	366	686	124	301	23	8	310	93	-4	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8241	7323	1746	288	57	159	665	1873	183	140	89	238	317	358	676	120	297	23	8	306	93	-55	-8	-10	+86	+174	19.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	138	23	4	13	52	148	14	11	7	239	316	360	676	121	298	23	8	306	93	-4	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Billy Rogell'25-'40 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,919 PA	8.9	5,919	42	82	240*	319*	369*	+58	+47	16.9	19.4
/162	664	5	9	+6.5	+5.3	1.9	pk7: 22
#3Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.3	5,482	107	93	242	317	365	+59	+30	16.8	14.1
/162	664	13	11	+7.1	+3.6	2.0	pk7: 11
#5Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Rosario (OGILVIE)	18	59→64	40→45	45→50	58	232/307/333	102	298	3	3	23%	8%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
●Daniel Robertson 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→45	52→40	49	227/301/367	141	268	12	6	20%	8%	90	+0.6	245/312/360	115	307	10	3	22%	7%	92	+0.7	256/329/366	110	321	8	2	21%	8%	96	+0.9
●Elvis Andrus 2006 · A	17	48→58	39→50	47→60	47	231/294/314	84	293	7	9	23%	7%	74	-0.5	241/292/319	78	321	4	22	25%	6%	74	-0.6	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Demetrio Crisantes 2024 · A	19	48→58	38→50	46→55	43	227/284/313	85	310	5	7	27%	6%	70	-0.9	250/317/366	116	315	9	13	22%	8%	95	+0.9	258/328/389	130	318	10	12	21%	8%	102	+0.8
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
●Jose Tabata 2007 · A	18	54→62	41→45	51→55	44	257/313/356	99	323	8	16	22%	6%	91	+0.6	271/321/361	90	336	7	14	20%	5%	95	+0.9	284/341/385	101	328	6	26	14%	7%	107	+1.5
●Miguel Vargas 2019 · A	19	51→54	39→55	52→50	46	240/297/334	93	309	5	8	23%	7%	80	-0.2	252/306/371	119	311	10	8	21%	7%	91	+0.7	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	50→57	39→45	51→45	51	234/299/332	97	275	5	7	16%	8%	80	-0.2	227/296/304	77	285	5	5	20%	9%	73	-0.6	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	47→57	43→50	49→45	44	228/296/339	111	277	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	253/309/380	127	305	13	7	21%	5%	95	+1.0	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Ronald Torreyes 2011 · A	18	57→59	42→45	52→50	47	268/318/394	126	285	6	14	9%	4%	101	+1.4	271/315/368	97	293	5	11	9%	4%	94	+0.9	271/315/361	90	292	4	9	8%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
●Cheslor Cuthbert 2012 · A	19	46→56	44→50	49→45	42	228/282/343	116	302	12	4	28%	6%	76	-0.4	222/267/325	103	278	10	6	23%	6%	66	-1.1	255/309/403	148	298	17	1	20%	7%	101	+0.7
✕Luis Matos 2021 · A	19	51→58	44→50	53→50	45	249/309/372	124	290	10	14	18%	5%	94	+0.9	242/288/368	126	279	13	13	18%	5%	84	+0.2	246/298/398	152	258	18	13	13%	6%	95	+0.7
✕Colton Welker 2017 · A	19	49→57	42→45	46→45	42	237/273/344	107	283	9	7	20%	4%	72	-0.7	253/292/357	104	323	9	5	23%	5%	82	+0.0	251/292/355	104	322	9	4	24%	5%	82	+0.0

Elian Rosario

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps