Lucas Takahashi — OGILVIE

Lucas TakahashiCF DSL Cardinals

Age 18 L/L 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -7%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 3.6 · 2035

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .265 / .286

PA54

HR1

K%31

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.6peak

2035

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.1	$30M	+$29M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.4	$33M	+$32M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.5	$35M	+$34M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.6	$38M	+$30M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+3.4	$37M	+$25M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+3.2	$35M	+$20M
Totals		$38M		$208M	+$170M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	48	36	3	0	0	0	10	15	1	2	1	.083	.298	.083	.381	.000	.136	31	21	.212	20	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	STL	54	50	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	.200	.259	.300	.559	.100	.291	31	7	.253	52	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	19	MLB 11%	STL	147	132	30	5	1	3	12	43	2	3	1	.227	.301	.348	.650	.121	.306	29	8	.289	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2028	20	MLB 28%	STL	295	262	61	10	2	7	27	83	4	7	2	.233	.314	.366	.680	.134	.312	28	9	.308	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.8
2029	21	MLB 48%	STL	410	362	87	14	3	11	39	112	6	11	3	.240	.324	.387	.711	.146	.312	27	10	.318	101	+1	+1	+0	+1	+12	1.5
2030	22	MLB 65%	STL	492	433	104	17	3	14	49	131	7	14	3	.240	.327	.390	.717	.150	.312	27	10	.325	107	+4	+2	+0	+2	+14	2.2
2031	23	MLB 86%	STL	547	478	118	19	4	17	56	143	8	16	3	.247	.336	.410	.746	.163	.313	26	10	.331	112	+7	+2	+0	+2	+15	2.7
2032	24	MLB	STL	584	510	127	21	4	19	61	151	8	17	4	.249	.339	.418	.756	.169	.313	26	10	.335	115	+10	+2	+0	+2	+17	3.1
2033	25	MLB	STL	605	527	131	21	4	20	65	155	8	18	4	.249	.340	.417	.757	.169	.314	26	11	.338	117	+12	+2	+0	+2	+17	3.4
2034	26	MLB	STL	617	536	134	22	4	20	67	158	9	18	4	.250	.343	.418	.761	.168	.314	26	11	.340	118	+13	+2	+0	+2	+17	3.5
2035	27	MLB	STL	619	537	134	22	4	20	68	159	9	18	3	.250	.344	.417	.761	.168	.314	26	11	.340	119	+13	+2	+0	+2	+18	3.6
2036	28	MLB	STL	616	534	132	21	4	20	68	160	9	17	3	.247	.342	.414	.756	.167	.314	26	11	.339	118	+12	+2	-1	+2	+17	3.4
2037	29	MLB	STL	607	526	129	21	4	19	68	159	8	15	2	.245	.341	.409	.749	.163	.313	26	11	.337	116	+11	+2	-1	+2	+17	3.2
2038	30	MLB	STL	597	517	126	20	4	19	67	159	8	14	2	.244	.340	.408	.748	.164	.312	27	11	.334	114	+9	+2	-2	+2	+17	2.9
2039	31	MLB	STL	583	505	122	19	4	18	65	157	8	11	1	.242	.337	.402	.739	.160	.311	27	11	.330	111	+7	+2	-3	+2	+17	2.5
2040	32	MLB	STL	565	489	117	18	4	17	63	155	8	8	0	.239	.336	.397	.732	.157	.309	27	11	.325	107	+5	+2	-4	+2	+16	2.1
2041	33	MLB	STL	535	464	108	17	3	15	59	151	7	5	0	.233	.328	.379	.708	.147	.308	28	11	.320	103	+2	+1	-4	+2	+15	1.6
2042	34	MLB	STL	487	424	97	15	3	13	54	141	6	4	0	.229	.324	.370	.695	.142	.306	29	11	.313	98	-1	+1	-5	+2	+14	1.1
2043	35	MLB	STL	432	377	84	13	3	11	47	130	5	2	0	.223	.317	.361	.678	.138	.304	30	11	.306	92	-4	+0	-6	+2	+12	0.5
2044	36	MLB	STL	371	323	69	10	2	9	40	115	5	1	0	.214	.310	.341	.650	.127	.301	31	11	.297	85	-6	+0	-6	+1	+11	-0.0
2045	37	MLB	STL	306	267	56	8	2	7	32	98	4	1	0	.210	.304	.333	.637	.124	.297	32	10	.287	78	-8	+0	-7	+1	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9517	8289	1979	315	62	280	1021	2592	130	203	36	.239	.332	.393	.725	.154	.311	27	11	.325	107	+74	+26	-38	+34	+270	37.2
/ 162G	—			650	566	135	22	4	19	70	177	9	14	2	.239	.332	.392	.724	.154	.311	27	11	.325	107	+5	+2	-3	+2	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	.103	.447	.103	.550	.000	.150	21	35	.319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Takahashi (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	.200/.265/.286	.086	.291	1	1	31%	7%	52	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Jason Heyward 2008 · A	18	46→56	41→55	47→50	41	.220/.274/.320	.100	.304	7	7	29%	6%	64	-0.8	.259/.317/.406	.147	.307	14	9	20%	7%	105	+2.1	.255/.348/.438	.183	.301	21	14	22%	12%	121	+3.1
●Gregory Polanco 2010 · A	18	43→53	35→60	52→55	44	.202/.266/.269	.067	.286	2	10	28%	7%	47	-1.9	.199/.250/.288	.089	.261	7	18	25%	6%	45	-2.1	.250/.322/.455	.204	.278	24	14	19%	9%	113	+2.3
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	44→46	38→45	46→50	44	.204/.277/.282	.078	.314	6	9	34%	9%	56	-1.3	.209/.295/.306	.097	.329	7	14	35%	9%	70	-0.3	.219/.297/.335	.116	.314	10	18	31%	8%	75	+0.0
●Jackson Merrill 2022 · A	19	45→55	36→55	52→50	39	.211/.260/.286	.076	.314	3	9	32%	6%	48	-1.9	.251/.293/.383	.132	.306	13	12	22%	5%	88	+0.9	.266/.310/.441	.174	.301	19	10	18%	6%	107	+1.9
✕Josue Briceño 2023 · A	18	39→41	42→60	44→40	38	.195/.242/.294	.099	.280	10	5	33%	6%	43	-2.2	.222/.286/.353	.131	.282	14	4	25%	8%	78	+0.2	.228/.304/.389	.161	.273	19	2	23%	9%	94	+0.6
●Oneil Cruz 2017 · A	18	46→51	37→60	51→55	42	.214/.266/.301	.088	.311	2	11	30%	7%	55	-1.4	.208/.249/.316	.108	.314	10	9	35%	5%	52	-1.6	.241/.304/.442	.201	.317	25	22	31%	8%	103	+1.7
●Franmil Reyes 2013 · A	18	42→52	40→65	50→45	42	.204/.266/.299	.095	.285	6	10	29%	7%	55	-1.4	.208/.259/.302	.094	.287	7	6	28%	6%	53	-1.5	.256/.325/.480	.224	.314	34	0	29%	9%	126	+2.6
●Michael Harris II 2021 · A	20	44→54	39→55	52→55	41	.212/.263/.298	.086	.291	6	10	28%	6%	53	-1.5	.258/.304/.406	.148	.329	14	21	25%	5%	99	+1.7	.278/.321/.456	.177	.328	21	21	21%	5%	116	+2.7
✕Akil Baddoo 2017 · A	18	39→49	39→55	53→55	40	.186/.255/.266	.081	.304	6	11	38%	8%	43	-2.2	.208/.284/.324	.116	.290	8	12	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.232/.314/.375	.143	.300	15	24	26%	11%	91	+0.8
●Max Kepler 2011 · A	18	46→56	35→60	51→50	42	.215/.262/.278	.063	.294	2	9	27%	6%	46	-2.0	.212/.269/.313	.101	.284	8	6	27%	6%	60	-1.0	.234/.319/.433	.200	.248	24	4	17%	10%	108	+2.2
●Mike Moustakas 2008 · A	19	46→54	38→65	50→45	42	.216/.278/.302	.086	.300	4	6	28%	6%	61	-1.0	.223/.263/.373	.150	.258	18	6	21%	4%	74	-0.1	.258/.320/.491	.233	.260	33	2	16%	7%	121	+3.2
●Oscar Taveras 2010 · A	18	42→52	37→55	52→45	46	.200/.256/.285	.085	.248	3	8	20%	6%	46	-2.0	.249/.291/.382	.133	.300	11	7	20%	5%	87	+0.8	.293/.330/.463	.170	.326	16	7	15%	4%	124	+2.0
●Dylan Carlson 2017 · A	18	41→51	40→55	48→50	36	.196/.244/.290	.094	.305	6	7	36%	6%	43	-2.2	.207/.277/.319	.112	.286	10	7	29%	8%	66	-0.6	.242/.327/.396	.154	.296	14	4	22%	9%	105	+1.6
●Maikel Franco 2011 · A	18	39→49	38→55	49→40	39	.190/.242/.270	.080	.272	5	4	31%	5%	37	-2.6	.217/.256/.335	.118	.271	12	3	24%	4%	60	-1.0	.263/.299/.434	.171	.290	19	2	17%	4%	100	+1.6
★Carlos Correa 2013 · A	18	42→52	40→60	51→55	37	.205/.244/.299	.094	.289	6	8	31%	5%	45	-2.1	.257/.317/.390	.133	.320	11	13	22%	7%	100	+1.7	.284/.360/.488	.204	.328	24	14	20%	10%	137	+4.4
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2017 · A	19	42→51	43→60	49→60	34	.206/.248/.311	.105	.320	11	11	38%	5%	50	-1.7	.204/.255/.341	.137	.318	16	11	39%	6%	62	-0.9	.248/.322/.446	.198	.304	27	36	27%	9%	113	+2.3
●Eloy Jiménez 2016 · A	19	40→50	40→65	49→40	39	.197/.240/.291	.094	.269	7	7	29%	5%	41	-2.3	.251/.286/.404	.153	.321	16	4	26%	4%	91	+1.1	.273/.314/.492	.219	.314	30	0	23%	5%	125	+2.3
●Rowdy Tellez 2014 · A	19	41→50	39→60	51→45	43	.199/.255/.290	.091	.270	6	5	28%	6%	48	-1.9	.229/.281/.344	.115	.286	12	4	23%	6%	73	-0.1	.249/.317/.464	.215	.286	29	1	24%	8%	114	+1.6
●Anthony Santander 2013 · A	18	45→49	42→65	47→45	39	.217/.275/.326	.110	.305	9	8	31%	6%	66	-0.6	.201/.254/.302	.101	.269	9	7	27%	5%	51	-1.7	.242/.317/.473	.231	.257	31	2	20%	9%	120	+3.4
★Austin Meadows 2014 · A	19	45→55	43→65	49→55	43	.214/.282/.336	.122	.308	10	6	32%	8%	72	-0.2	.242/.292/.362	.120	.310	9	10	24%	6%	82	+0.5	.255/.336/.495	.240	.289	30	8	23%	10%	129	+2.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)