Lucas Takahashi — OGILVIE

Lucas TakahashiCF DSL Cardinals

Age 18 L/L 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 56 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .300 / .205

PA56

HR0

K%28

BB%12

BABIP276

ISO21

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$7M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$19M		$39M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	36	3	0	0	0	10	16	1	2	1	83	298	83	381		143	33	21	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	STL	—	85	68	15	2	0	0	15	26	2	1	0	221	376	250	626	29	357	31	18	288	79	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	STL	—	85	59	17	2	0	0	24	18	2	1	0	288	506	322	828	34	415	21	28	404	167	+6	+0	+0	+0	+2	1.0
ROS	18	ROK	STL	0%	56	48	9	1	0	0	7	16	1	1	0	185	300	205	505	21	300	28	12	277	70	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
ROS	18	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	266	62	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	STL	—	85	69	15	2	0	0	15	26	2	1	0	217	376	246	623	29	349	31	18	288	79	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	STL	—	141	116	24	3	0	0	22	42	3	2	0	206	346	231	577	26	321	30	16	283	75	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	STL	34%	147	126	27	4	1	1	18	41	2	2	0	214	322	286	608	71	299	28	12	285	76	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2028	20	MLB	STL	48%	295	254	55	8	1	4	35	80	4	4	1	217	321	303	624	87	300	27	12	292	82	-6	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2029	21	MLB	STL	54%	410	353	79	12	2	6	48	109	6	5	1	224	327	320	647	96	301	27	12	298	86	-7	+1	+0	+1	+12	0.7
2030	22	MLB	STL	57%	492	424	95	14	2	8	57	130	8	6	2	224	327	323	650	99	302	26	12	301	89	-6	+0	+0	+2	+14	1.0
2031	23	MLB	STL	58%	547	469	107	16	3	9	64	144	9	7	2	228	332	333	665	104	303	26	12	304	91	-6	+1	+0	+2	+15	1.2
2032	24	MLB	STL	57%	584	502	114	17	3	10	68	154	9	7	2	227	330	333	663	106	304	26	12	306	92	-5	+1	+0	+2	+17	1.4
2033	25	MLB	STL	57%	605	519	119	18	3	11	71	159	10	7	2	229	333	339	672	110	304	26	12	307	93	-5	+1	+0	+2	+17	1.6
2034	26	MLB	STL	57%	617	530	122	18	3	12	72	162	10	8	2	230	333	343	677	113	304	26	12	308	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+17	1.7
2035	27	MLB	STL	55%	619	531	122	18	3	12	73	163	10	8	2	230	334	343	677	113	304	26	12	308	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+18	1.7
2036	28	MLB	STL	55%	616	528	120	18	3	11	73	163	10	7	2	227	332	335	667	108	303	26	12	307	93	-5	+1	-1	+2	+17	1.5
2037	29	MLB	STL	58%	607	519	118	17	3	11	73	162	10	7	2	227	334	335	669	108	303	27	12	306	92	-6	+1	-1	+2	+17	1.3
2038	30	MLB	STL	60%	597	512	114	17	2	10	71	161	9	7	2	223	328	322	650	100	302	27	12	303	90	-7	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.1
2039	31	MLB	STL	62%	583	499	110	16	2	10	70	159	9	7	2	220	327	321	648	100	300	27	12	299	87	-9	+1	-3	+2	+17	0.8
2027	19	MLB	STL	34%	51	44	9	1	0	1	6	14	1	1	0	205	314	295	609	91	299	27	12	274	68	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	STL	48%	143	123	27	4	1	2	17	39	2	2	0	220	324	317	641	98	300	27	12	281	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB	STL	54%	222	191	42	6	1	3	26	59	3	3	1	220	323	309	632	89	301	27	12	286	77	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2030	22	MLB	STL	57%	278	240	53	8	1	4	32	74	4	3	1	221	322	312	635	92	302	27	12	289	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	STL	58%	315	270	60	9	1	5	37	83	5	4	1	222	327	319	645	96	303	26	12	292	82	-7	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.4
2032	24	MLB	STL	57%	333	286	66	10	2	6	39	88	5	4	1	231	333	343	676	112	304	26	12	294	83	-6	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.5
2033	25	MLB	STL	57%	343	295	67	10	2	6	40	90	5	4	1	227	329	336	665	108	304	26	12	295	84	-6	+0	+0	+1	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB	STL	57%	349	299	69	10	2	7	41	92	6	4	1	231	335	348	683	117	304	26	12	296	85	-6	+0	+0	+1	+10	0.6
2035	27	MLB	STL	55%	343	294	67	10	2	6	41	90	5	4	1	228	332	337	669	109	303	26	12	296	85	-6	+0	+0	+1	+10	0.6
2036	28	MLB	STL	55%	338	290	66	10	2	6	40	89	5	4	1	228	331	338	669	110	303	26	12	295	84	-6	+0	-0	+1	+10	0.5
2037	29	MLB	STL	58%	353	302	68	10	2	6	42	94	6	4	1	225	331	331	663	106	302	27	12	294	83	-7	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.4
2038	30	MLB	STL	60%	360	308	68	10	1	6	43	97	6	4	1	221	328	318	646	97	302	27	12	291	81	-8	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.3
2039	31	MLB	STL	62%	360	308	68	10	1	6	43	98	6	4	1	221	328	318	646	97	299	27	12	288	78	-9	+0	-2	+1	+10	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3788	3251	730	108	18	64	447	1007	59	45	11	225	329	328	657	103	303	27	12	292	82	-79	+5	-4	+14	+107	4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	558	126	19	3	11	77	173	10	8	2	226	331	330	660	104	304	27	12	292	82	-13	+1	-1	+2	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	6823	5850	1314	194	31	115	810	1819	108	85	23	225	330	327	657	103	303	27	12	303	90	-79	+8	-7	+24	+193	14.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	557	125	18	3	11	77	173	10	8	2	224	329	327	655	102	303	27	12	303	90	-7	+1	-1	+2	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,843	66	47	227	327	331	+14	+20	8.3	7.1
	/162	664	11	8	227	327	331	+2.4	+3.5	1.4	pk7: 6
#5Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	7	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	10	2	232	315	348	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Takahashi (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	206/346/231	26	321	0	2	30%	16%	75	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gabriel Moncada 2021 · A	19	42	35→50	45→40	41	197/248/259	62	276	3	6	28%	6%	37	-2.7	217/296/332	115	319	11	4	33%	8%	77	+0.1	210/291/344	134	303	15	2	33%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Elehuris Montero 2017 · A	18	39→49	36→55	45→30	42	188/247/254	66	266	4	3	29%	6%	35	-2.8	213/266/329	116	283	10	3	27%	6%	63	-0.8	217/278/393	176	273	24	1	30%	6%	85	+0.6
●Andrés Chaparro 2017 · A	18	40→49	36→60	47→40	43	188/249/258	70	271	2	5	30%	7%	37	-2.7	199/253/303	104	280	10	5	31%	7%	50	-1.7	231/292/422	191	271	25	4	25%	7%	96	+1.2
✕Gilbert Marrero 2016 · A	19	37	38→45	44→40	41	179/246/258	79	278	6	4	36%	8%	37	-2.7	183/237/253	70	329	4	6	42%	6%	30	-3.1	129/166/166	37	267	0	3	49%	4%	-26	-1.2
✕Mario Gonzalez 2011 · A	19	42	34→40	43→40	45	196/255/243	46	257	1	5	23%	7%	36	-2.7	210/297/290	80	260	5	5	19%	10%	67	-0.5	198/315/284	87	228	7	3	15%	12%	76	+0.0
✕David Medina 2008 · A	19	39→44	34→50	42→40	46	178/260/226	48	279	1	5	33%	9%	35	-2.8	186/251/269	83	298	6	4	37%	7%	41	-2.3	190/240/302	113	292	9	2	37%	6%	42	-1.0
✕Jaime Ortiz 2007 · A	19	40→50	37→45	43→40	39	191/246/258	67	279	5	4	32%	6%	36	-2.7	193/245/307	114	273	13	3	33%	5%	49	-1.8	224/271/336	112	283	10	3	24%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Felix Munoz 2010 · A	18	43→53	35→40	46→30	48	198/252/258	59	235	3	4	17%	6%	38	-2.6	207/256/272	65	247	4	4	17%	6%	43	-2.2	238/286/330	92	281	7	1	17%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Michael Soto 2010 · A	18	39→40	37→40	48→45	42	190/247/263	73	272	5	7	31%	7%	38	-2.6	188/249/286	98	279	9	5	34%	7%	45	-2.1	194/251/310	116	268	12	4	31%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Danny Contreras 2017 · A	19	37	36→40	49→50	44	179/245/250	71	256	3	8	30%	8%	34	-2.8	190/254/270	80	269	7	6	30%	8%	43	-2.2	193/232/275	82	256	14	2	30%	5%	32	-0.6
✕Axel Wel 2010 · A	19	42	35→45	46→40	47	194/255/251	57	247	2	5	21%	7%	38	-2.6	190/253/275	85	234	7	5	21%	7%	43	-2.2	168/235/259	91	197	9	3	19%	7%	30	-0.9
✕Carlos Franco 2010 · A	18	41→49	38→45	41→45	36	185/246/266	81	326	5	5	42%	7%	38	-2.6	177/241/250	73	264	5	8	33%	7%	32	-3.0	213/270/320	107	302	12	3	32%	7%	59	-0.9
●Abraham Toro 2017 · A	20	43→53	35→50	49→45	40	203/246/265	61	268	2	5	24%	4%	37	-2.7	208/273/341	133	262	13	5	25%	7%	70	-0.3	235/307/391	156	281	16	6	22%	8%	95	+1.2
✕Alexander Simon 2012 · A	19	42→52	35→40	49→50	42	199/252/261	62	281	1	12	28%	6%	38	-2.6	225/271/307	82	325	4	11	30%	6%	58	-1.2	238/278/322	83	347	4	10	31%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Steven Mateo 2011 · A	18	42	35→40	41→50	36	195/245/256	61	312	2	5	36%	6%	34	-2.8	197/277/270	73	304	4	7	33%	9%	53	-1.5	209/297/290	81	305	4	8	29%	10%	64	-0.2
✕Jose Vicente 2015 · A	19	42→41	36→50	46→30	42	197/242/264	67	251	3	6	22%	5%	35	-2.8	212/262/308	96	276	7	4	25%	6%	55	-1.4	214/263/323	109	277	9	2	26%	6%	57	-0.4
✕Jhonny Gomez 2008 · A	18	38	37→30	46→40	41	181/251/253	72	291	5	11	37%	8%	37	-2.6	205/281/265	60	275	3	7	24%	8%	53	-1.5	216/292/264	48	282	2	5	22%	8%	55	-0.4
✕Kelly Aponte 2009 · A	18	49	37→45	49→45	31	190/247/260	70	411	4	6	51%	7%	37	-2.7	196/254/298	102	316	9	5	38%	7%	50	-1.7	184/248/288	104	272	11	3	35%	7%	45	-0.7
✕Reginald Lampe 2010 · A	20	41	35→45	43→55	40	191/250/257	66	285	2	7	32%	6%	37	-2.6	205/266/299	94	267	7	9	25%	6%	55	-1.4	192/257/286	94	245	8	10	24%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Edwin Espinal 2014 · A	20	42→52	37→45	45→30	41	200/242/272	71	259	4	5	24%	5%	37	-2.7	230/265/314	84	274	7	2	18%	4%	58	-1.2	236/274/340	104	277	11	0	19%	4%	67	-0.4