Lucas Takahashi — OGILVIE

Lucas TakahashiCF DSL Cardinals

Age 18 L/L 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION163 act + 15 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.154 / .267 / .154

PA15

HR0

K%27

BB%13

BABIP299

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$4M	+$1M
2037	Arb-3	$11M	+1.0	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$29M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	36	3	0	0	0	10	15	1	2	1	83	298	83	381		122	31	21	215	32	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	36	3	0	0	0	10	15	1	2	1	83	298	83	381		136	31	21	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	37	3	0	0	0	10	15	1	2	1	81	298	81	379		122	31	21	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	37	3	0	0	0	10	15	1	2	1	81	298	81	379		122	31	21	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	STL	—	163	127	27	2	2	0	34	45	2	3	0	213	387	260	646	47	329	28	21	303	91	-2	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	STL	—	163	106	28	2	2	0	55	31	2	3	0	264	521	321	842	57	373	19	34	413	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	STL	0%	15	13	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	154	267	154	421		300	27	13	289	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	STL	—	178	140	29	2	2	0	36	49	2	3	0	207	376	250	626	43	319	28	20	302	90	-2	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	34%	220	186	40	5	2	2	30	58	2	6	1	215	330	296	626	81	299	26	14	297	87	-3	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	48%	352	297	66	9	3	5	48	91	4	10	3	222	338	323	661	101	300	26	14	305	92	-3	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.7
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	54%	451	382	87	12	4	7	60	115	6	14	3	228	342	335	677	107	301	25	13	310	96	-2	+2	+0	+2	+10	1.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	57%	520	439	100	14	4	9	69	132	7	16	4	228	342	339	681	112	302	25	13	314	99	-1	+2	+0	+2	+11	1.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	58%	566	478	110	15	4	11	75	143	8	17	4	230	344	347	691	117	303	25	13	317	101	+1	+2	+0	+2	+12	1.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	597	504	118	16	5	12	80	150	8	18	5	234	348	357	705	123	304	25	13	320	103	+2	+2	+0	+2	+13	1.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	614	519	122	17	5	13	82	154	8	19	5	235	348	362	710	127	304	25	13	322	104	+3	+2	+0	+2	+13	2.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	57%	622	526	123	17	5	13	83	156	8	19	5	234	347	359	706	125	304	25	13	323	105	+3	+2	+0	+2	+13	2.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	622	525	123	17	5	13	84	157	8	19	5	234	348	360	708	126	304	25	14	323	105	+4	+2	+0	+2	+13	2.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	618	521	121	16	5	13	84	157	8	18	5	232	347	357	704	125	303	25	14	322	104	+3	+2	-1	+2	+13	2.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	608	512	119	16	5	13	83	155	8	18	5	232	348	359	708	127	303	25	14	320	103	+2	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.8
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	53%	597	503	114	15	4	12	81	154	8	17	4	227	343	344	687	117	302	26	14	318	101	+1	+2	-2	+2	+13	1.6
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	52%	583	491	111	15	4	11	79	152	8	17	4	226	343	340	683	114	300	26	14	314	99	-1	+2	-3	+2	+13	1.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	STL	52%	565	476	106	14	4	10	77	150	7	16	4	223	339	332	671	109	297	27	14	309	95	-3	+2	-4	+2	+12	0.9
2041	33	MLB MLE	STL	56%	535	451	98	12	4	9	72	144	7	15	4	217	334	322	655	104	293	27	13	303	91	-6	+1	-4	+2	+12	0.5
2042	34	MLB MLE	STL	52%	488	413	86	10	3	8	66	135	6	13	3	208	326	305	631	97	289	28	14	295	86	-8	+1	-5	+2	+11	0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	34%	76	64	15	2	1	1	11	20	1	2	1	234	355	344	699	109	299	26	14	287	87	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	48%	171	144	31	4	1	2	23	44	2	5	1	215	331	299	630	83	300	26	13	294	92	-2	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	54%	245	207	47	6	2	4	33	63	3	7	2	227	342	333	675	106	300	26	13	298	96	-1	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.6
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	57%	294	249	56	8	2	5	39	75	4	9	2	225	339	333	672	108	301	26	13	302	99	-0	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.8
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	58%	326	276	64	9	3	6	43	82	4	10	2	232	344	351	695	120	302	25	13	305	101	+0	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	340	287	66	9	3	6	45	86	5	10	3	230	344	345	689	115	303	25	13	307	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	348	294	68	9	3	7	46	87	5	11	3	231	345	354	699	122	303	25	13	309	104	+2	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	57%	352	297	69	9	3	7	47	88	5	11	3	232	347	354	700	121	303	25	13	310	105	+2	+1	+0	+1	+8	1.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	345	290	68	9	3	7	47	87	5	10	3	234	351	359	709	124	303	25	14	310	105	+2	+1	+0	+1	+7	1.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	339	285	67	9	3	7	46	86	5	10	3	235	351	361	713	126	303	25	14	309	104	+2	+1	-0	+1	+7	1.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	325	274	62	8	2	6	44	83	4	10	2	226	342	336	677	109	302	26	14	308	103	+1	+1	-1	+1	+7	1.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	53%	314	264	60	8	2	6	43	81	4	9	2	227	344	341	685	114	301	26	14	305	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.8
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	52%	304	256	57	8	2	5	41	79	4	9	2	223	339	328	667	105	299	26	13	301	99	-0	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.7
2040	32	MLB CTX	STL	52%	293	247	54	7	2	5	40	78	4	8	2	219	337	324	661	105	296	27	14	297	95	-2	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.5
2041	33	MLB CTX	STL	56%	300	252	55	7	2	5	41	81	4	8	2	218	337	321	658	103	293	27	14	291	91	-3	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.3
2042	34	MLB CTX	STL	52%	251	212	45	5	2	4	34	69	3	7	2	212	329	311	641	99	288	27	14	284	86	-4	+1	-3	+1	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4623	3898	884	117	36	83	623	1189	62	136	35	227	342	339	682	112	302	26	13	303	99	-3	+13	-10	+17	+100	11.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	548	124	16	5	12	88	167	9	19	5	226	343	339	683	113	300	26	14	303	99	-0	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	8621	7272	1649	220	66	161	1165	2222	112	254	65	227	342	342	684	115	302	26	14	314	99	-9	+25	-20	+31	+186	21.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	548	125	17	5	12	88	168	8	19	5	228	343	343	686	115	305	26	14	314	99	-1	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2César Hernándezlast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,797 PA	7.2	4,797	71	91	267	341	375	+17	+1	17.8	18.1
/162	664	10	13	+2.4	+0.2	2.5	pk7: 18
#3Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	6.5	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
/162	664	13	19	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.1	4,705	89	138	228	339	344	+9	+22	15.2	12.3
/162	664	12	19	+1.3	+3.2	2.1	pk7: 9
#4Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#5Mark Bellhornlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,181 PA	3.3	2,181	63	21	233	345	404	+2	+5	10.3	10.3
/162	664	19	6	+0.6	+1.5	3.1	pk7: 10
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Takahashi (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	208/330/276	68	300	0	2	27%	14%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→50	53→60	49	216/286/282	66	296	3	14	26%	9%	64	-1.3	213/285/281	68	287	4	16	25%	9%	63	-1.3	266/344/401	135	328	13	29	21%	10%	110	+2.1
✕Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→45	51→50	46	211/284/282	71	293	4	12	28%	8%	63	-1.3	242/292/348	106	310	7	11	23%	6%	80	-0.1	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
●Justin Crawford 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→45	52→60	41	209/271/282	73	311	4	18	32%	7%	58	-1.7	273/318/374	101	362	6	34	25%	6%	96	+1.0	293/339/398	104	381	6	41	23%	6%	105	+1.3
✕Jorbit Vivas 2019 · A	18	41→51	35→45	51→50	46	190/270/254	64	256	2	15	24%	7%	53	-2.1	230/299/329	99	282	6	10	20%	6%	80	-0.1	244/324/361	117	272	11	9	14%	7%	95	+0.9
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43→45	39→50	55	42	205/265/294	89	297	6	14	32%	7%	59	-1.7	186/260/273	87	276	6	12	32%	8%	53	-2.1	195/272/312	117	292	11	20	34%	9%	64	-0.5
●Oneil Cruz 2017 · A	18	46→53	37→60	51→60	42	214/266/302	88	311	2	11	30%	7%	60	-1.6	213/255/322	109	326	10	9	36%	5%	61	-1.5	243/326/440	197	329	25	34	32%	10%	110	+1.8
●Ender Inciarte 2009 · A	18	49→59	34→45	51→60	46	229/283/275	46	290	1	17	21%	6%	60	-1.6	226/266/291	65	286	2	12	20%	5%	57	-1.8	294/343/394	100	328	7	19	12%	6%	106	+1.8
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→52	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	61	-1.5	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	234/311/308	74	302	5	10	22%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Jason Martin 2014 · A	18	44→49	36→60	48→50	49	205/271/275	69	267	2	11	22%	8%	56	-1.9	215/274/318	103	282	7	11	25%	7%	67	-1.1	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
●Gavin Lux 2018 · A	20	45→55	39→50	53→50	45	216/275/305	89	286	6	13	26%	7%	64	-1.3	247/303/392	145	313	15	11	25%	7%	95	+1.0	265/334/414	149	332	14	8	23%	9%	109	+1.7
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	222/274/319	97	291	7	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Josh VanMeter 2014 · A	19	47→48	35→55	50	48	217/282/280	64	277	2	11	21%	8%	61	-1.5	207/258/281	74	270	5	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	229/304/400	171	279	18	12	24%	9%	96	+0.8
●Gregory Polanco 2010 · A	18	43→53	35→60	52→55	44	201/265/266	65	284	1	11	28%	8%	52	-2.2	202/254/293	91	264	7	19	25%	6%	54	-2.0	255/327/463	208	285	24	14	19%	9%	115	+2.0
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
●Jahmai Jones 2016 · A	18	42→50	38→50	50	42	202/259/282	79	273	5	16	27%	6%	54	-2.0	226/281/327	101	292	8	16	24%	6%	72	-0.7	248/345/422	173	324	16	18	26%	11%	114	+1.3
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	43→51	36→50	51→45	43	201/265/280	79	293	2	10	30%	7%	55	-1.9	230/292/316	86	326	5	6	28%	8%	74	-0.6	227/293/314	87	317	6	4	28%	8%	70	-0.5
●Lane Thomas 2015 · A	19	45→52	37→55	51→55	43	209/270/288	79	307	3	10	31%	8%	59	-1.7	189/254/276	87	315	6	12	38%	8%	51	-2.3	249/310/426	177	308	20	21	25%	7%	105	+1.7
✕Alexander Ovalles 2019 · A	18	49→42	36→50	47→50	49	227/294/294	68	301	3	13	24%	8%	70	-0.9	231/289/336	105	301	7	8	24%	7%	77	-0.3	219/285/349	129	284	12	7	26%	7%	76	-0.2
●Jonathan Villar 2009 · A	18	44→54	35→50	54→65	42	203/266/263	61	301	3	20	32%	7%	52	-2.2	208/263/288	80	320	5	22	34%	6%	56	-1.9	263/334/402	139	351	15	44	27%	9%	106	+1.6
✕Jeffer Patino 2007 · A	18	45	37→45	49→45	47	211/274/288	78	271	3	8	22%	7%	61	-1.5	220/284/302	82	271	5	5	19%	7%	68	-1.0	213/266/288	75	257	5	3	18%	6%	55	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps