Lucas Takahashi

CF DSL Cardinals

Age 19 L/L 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1270ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKSTL	48	.103/.447/.103	0	2	43	—	.059/.319/.059
2026	18	ROKSTL	163	.264/.521/.321	0	3	90	—	.180/.387/.205
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBSTL	273	.206/.318/.275	2	7	75	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSTL	47	.212/.323/.291	0	1	80	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSTL	115	.216/.325/.305	1	3	84	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%99

Chase%99

wOBA92

wRC+90

Speed71

K%62

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHector Osorio (age 19) · Kevyn Castillo (age 19) · Abrahan Ramirez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .316 / .272

PA84

HR1

K%26

BB%13

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	163	106	28	2	2	0	55	31	2	3	0	264	521	321	842	57	373	19	34	413	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	34	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	59	319	59	378		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	122	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	180	387	205	591	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	34	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	59	319	59	378		91	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	122	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	180	387	205	591	25	262	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	163	106	28	2	2	0	55	31	2	3	0	264	521	321	842	57	373	19	34	413	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	35	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	57	319	57	376		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	121	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	182	387	207	593	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	35	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	57	319	57	376		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	121	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	182	387	207	593	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	0%	273	232	48	6	2	2	36	72	3	7	2	206	318	275	593	68	288	26	13	279	75	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	34%	137	117	24	3	1	1	18	36	1	4	1	212	322	292	614	80	290	26	13	287	80	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	48%	237	202	44	6	2	3	30	61	3	7	2	216	325	306	631	90	291	26	13	293	84	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	54%	349	298	66	9	3	5	44	89	4	11	4	220	327	319	646	99	292	26	13	298	88	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	57%	423	363	80	11	3	7	52	107	5	13	4	223	328	330	658	107	293	25	12	302	91	-5	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	470	405	91	13	4	8	57	118	5	14	5	226	329	339	668	113	294	25	12	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	498	428	97	14	4	9	61	125	6	15	5	227	330	342	673	116	294	25	12	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+2	+11	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	512	439	100	14	4	10	62	128	6	15	5	227	331	345	676	118	294	25	12	308	95	-3	+1	+0	+2	+11	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	60%	516	442	100	14	4	10	63	130	6	15	5	226	330	342	672	116	293	25	12	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+11	1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	62%	513	441	99	14	4	9	62	130	5	15	5	224	328	338	666	114	293	25	12	305	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.9
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	63%	502	431	96	13	4	9	61	129	5	14	6	222	325	332	657	110	291	26	12	301	90	-6	+0	-1	+2	+11	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	63%	490	423	92	13	3	8	59	127	5	14	6	219	322	324	646	105	290	26	12	297	87	-8	+0	-2	+2	+11	0.3
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	65%	475	410	87	12	3	7	57	125	5	12	7	215	317	314	631	99	287	26	12	291	83	-10	-0	-3	+2	+10	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	34%	47	40	8	1	0	0	6	12	1	1	0	212	323	291	614	79	291	26	13	287	80	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	48%	115	98	21	3	1	1	15	30	1	3	1	216	325	305	630	89	292	26	13	293	84	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	54%	189	161	36	5	2	3	24	48	2	6	2	220	327	317	644	97	293	25	13	298	88	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	57%	239	205	46	7	2	4	29	60	3	7	2	223	329	327	656	104	294	25	12	301	91	-3	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	266	229	51	8	2	4	32	67	3	8	3	226	329	336	665	110	295	25	12	305	93	-2	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	281	242	54	8	2	5	34	70	3	9	3	226	330	339	669	113	295	25	12	306	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	289	249	55	8	2	5	35	72	3	9	3	227	330	342	672	115	295	25	12	307	95	-2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	60%	308	264	59	9	2	5	38	77	3	9	3	226	330	339	669	113	295	25	12	306	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	62%	317	272	60	9	2	5	39	80	3	9	3	224	328	335	662	111	294	25	12	303	92	-3	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	63%	315	271	60	9	2	5	38	81	3	9	3	222	325	329	654	107	293	26	12	300	90	-4	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	63%	311	267	59	9	2	5	38	81	3	9	4	219	322	321	643	102	291	26	12	296	87	-5	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	65%	309	266	56	8	2	4	37	81	3	8	4	215	317	312	629	97	288	26	12	290	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2986	2564	565	84	21	46	365	759	31	87	31	220	325	323	648	103	292	25	12	301	90	-34	+5	-4	+11	+65	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	123	18	5	10	79	165	7	19	7	220	324	324	648	104	293	25	12	301	90	-7	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5417	4627	1016	139	41	87	688	1378	60	156	57	220	328	324	652	104	291	25	13	301	90	-62	+8	-7	+19	+113	7.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	555	122	17	5	10	83	165	7	19	7	220	329	323	651	103	292	25	13	301	90	-8	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Cardinals · 163 PAwOBA .406 → .301 (−105)K% 19.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.02%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	33.74%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	23.80%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.87%
Singles /BIP	32.00%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	23.02%
Doubles /BIP	2.67%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	1.69%
Triples /BIP	2.67%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .406 → .301; ISO .057 → .041; BABIP .373 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Cardinals · 48 PAwOBA .321 → .232 (−90)K% 20.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	26.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	35.42%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.022	24.80%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.49%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.019	×0.680	—	×1.022	10.78%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.990	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.047	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .321 → .232; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .150 → .103. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.6	3,071	52	89	223	324	331	+11	+20	6.4	5.7
/162	664	11	19	+2.4	+4.3	1.4	pk7: 5
#1Gerald Young'87-'94 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,083 PA	3.1	2,083	3	155	246*	332*	329*	+4	+9	5.1	5.5
/162	664	1	49	+1.2	+2.9	1.6	pk7: 6
#2Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	3.2	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
/162	664	6	35	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Darren Lewis'90-'02 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,652 PA	7.0	4,652	27	247	239*	312*	319*	+0	+23	2.7	4.2
/162	664	4	35	+0.0	+3.3	0.4	pk7: 6
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Chuck Carr'90-'97 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,914 PA	2.9	1,914	13	144	242*	306*	331*	+6	+20	2.6	2.6
/162	664	5	50	+2.1	+7.1	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Takahashi (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/316/272	68	288	1	2	26%	13%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hector Osorio 2024 · A	19	44	35→45	51→50	62	200/321/262	62	245	2	15	17%	13%	76	-0.4	216/319/308	92	262	8	12	19%	11%	84	+0.1	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2024 · A	19	47→46	36→45	51→55	59	218/319/284	66	282	2	16	21%	12%	78	-0.3	220/304/299	79	303	4	13	26%	10%	75	-0.5	214/298/296	82	295	5	16	27%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Marco Vargas 2024 · A	19	45→46	37→40	50→60	57	208/302/289	81	267	4	13	22%	12%	72	-0.7	214/295/280	66	304	3	25	27%	10%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	43→50	37→45	49→50	47	199/284/273	74	302	3	11	32%	10%	62	-1.4	217/300/325	108	317	8	16	31%	9%	80	-0.2	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
●Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	44→54	37→45	51→50	49	208/286/276	68	285	4	12	26%	9%	63	-1.3	249/303/357	108	317	7	11	22%	7%	86	+0.3	271/329/396	125	328	10	12	19%	8%	104	+1.3
✕John Whittleman 2006 · A	19	44→45	37→50	54→45	48	204/279/289	85	286	2	11	27%	9%	63	-1.4	207/281/318	111	283	9	5	28%	9%	71	-0.8	203/292/325	122	277	11	2	29%	11%	76	-0.4
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	46	38→40	48→45	50	212/301/299	87	300	5	8	28%	10%	74	-0.5	199/264/269	70	309	2	9	33%	7%	53	-2.1	176/234/225	50	289	0	8	36%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Jonatan Clase 2021 · A	19	44→48	37→50	54→65	53	203/294/283	80	276	3	19	25%	11%	68	-1.0	206/284/334	128	307	12	34	34%	9%	76	-0.4	210/288/361	151	303	15	47	33%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2021 · A	19	45→46	37→55	49→50	47	212/272/292	80	272	4	8	22%	7%	61	-1.5	214/265/314	100	290	7	9	27%	6%	63	-1.4	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Esteban González 2022 · A	19	45	37→45	55	47	206/288/291	85	281	2	12	25%	8%	68	-1.0	208/275/302	94	298	6	18	30%	6%	65	-1.2	207/269/318	111	298	8	29	32%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	45→55	36→45	50→45	54	206/294/278	71	267	2	9	22%	10%	67	-1.1	203/252/261	58	256	2	6	21%	5%	46	-2.6	279/319/373	94	320	8	6	15%	4%	96	+0.8
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	40→46	40→45	50→55	58	188/306/284	96	264	6	16	28%	14%	74	-0.5	205/300/295	90	282	5	20	26%	11%	74	-0.6	219/288/322	102	278	9	23	23%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Jason Martin 2015 · A	19	45→52	36→60	50	49	210/274/290	80	273	1	11	23%	8%	61	-1.5	222/277/351	129	295	12	12	27%	7%	76	-0.4	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	47→57	36→50	53→60	49	217/287/283	66	297	3	14	26%	9%	65	-1.2	218/293/288	70	294	4	16	25%	9%	68	-1.0	269/346/409	140	334	13	28	22%	10%	116	+2.7
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8

Lucas Takahashi

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps