Miguel Vargas
P
DSL Arizona Black
Age 18
RHP
6'5" / 205 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 6 | 5 | 8 | 40 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 83% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 25.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 5.62 | 5.00 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 6 | 5 | 8 | 40 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 83% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 25.0% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 5.62 | 5.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 6 | 6 | 15 | 70 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 10.6% | 23.7% | -13.2% | 0.0% | 7.36 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 23 | 105 | 19 | 17 | 1 | — | — | 18.3% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 6.26 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 12 | 11 | 23 | 110 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 92% | 1.9 | 12.2% | 24.2% | -12.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.13 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 97 | 200 | 971 | 118 | 235 | 0 | 92% | 1.9 | 12.2% | 24.2% | -12.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2029 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 81 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.21 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .337 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.14 | 4.21 | 104 | 81 |
| Daniel Espino R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.31 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .194 | 3.49 | 32.5% | 21.4% | 110 | -0.82 | 3.35 | 145 | 79 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2029 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 76 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 75 |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 73 |
| Aneury Lora R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.93 | 16.6% | 11.1% | 1.5% | .339 | 4.01 | 15.1% | 5.9% | 114 | +0.08 | 3.92 | 171 | 72 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 72 |
| Nelfy Ynfante R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 5.0% | 202 | +0.39 | 3.71 | 274 | 72 |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 71 |
| Zach Haake R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.13 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .205 | 4.50 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 121 | +0.37 | 3.40 | 272 | 71 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 71 |
| Richard Fernandez R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.35 | 15.1% | 9.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 16.5% | -0.2% | 85 | -1.07 | 3.66 | 136 | 71 |
| Marco Raya R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 71 |
| Chris Clark R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.41 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .362 | 4.78 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 303 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 322 | 71 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 71 |
| Moises Castillo R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 70 |
| Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .323 | 5.20 | 15.0% | 4.5% | 187 | +1.23 | 3.97 | 227 | 70 |
| Javier Bartolozzi R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.25 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .325 | 4.49 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 107 | +1.24 | 3.25 | 146 | 70 |
| Luis Valdez R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.51 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .270 | 6.61 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 34 | +3.10 | 3.51 | 102 | 70 |