David Medina — OGILVIE

David Medina P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA4.07

FIP4.07

K%22.4%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	2.3%	6.06	3.37	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	2.3%	6.06	3.37	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	1.3%	6.06	1.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	13.1%	11.6%	1.4%	0.0%	6.69	3.47	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	13.1%	11.6%	1.4%	0.0%	6.69	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	BAL	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	0.0%	6.69	2.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	36	152	35	10	4	100%	4.5	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.00	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	18	76	17	5	2	100%	4.5	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.00	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	75	17	5	2	100%	4.4	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.04	3.62	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	192	57	23	100%	4.6	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.04	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		20	11	51	236	35	22	2	55%	2.6	15.0%	9.5%	5.4%	0.7%	6.49	3.44	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	43	200	919	138	88	7	55%	2.6	15.0%	9.5%	5.4%	0.7%	6.49	3.44	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	22.4%	6.6%	3.0%	—	4.00	22.9%	16.2%	36	-0.07	—	—	—
Richard Guasch R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	20	SP-	2.94	20.0%	5.4%	1.5%	.267	4.67	21.0%	5.2%	134	+1.73	2.94	316	83
Angel Jimenez R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	19	SP-	3.24	20.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.257	3.41	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.17	3.24	223	81
Ryan Fernandez R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP-	4.44	19.2%	6.8%	3.8%	.357	3.37	20.8%	13.2%	53	-1.07	3.02	360	80
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.18	573	79
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	79
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	79
Andrew Sopko R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	17.4%	4.1%	2.9%	.282	3.97	16.6%	8.8%	353	+0.21	3.62	479	79
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	79
Breidy Encarnación R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	18	SP-	3.10	21.7%	7.7%	1.6%	.239	5.15	18.1%	3.6%	50	+2.05	3.10	164	77
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	77
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	77
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	76
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	76
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	76
Domingo Pena R 2017 · 4.99 FIP	19	SP-	4.99	20.4%	8.3%	4.7%	.250	5.87	11.9%	2.8%	43	+0.88	3.34	165	75
Winston Santos R 2021 · 3.19 FIP	19	SP-	3.19	18.3%	8.4%	1.0%	.261	4.43	19.0%	11.3%	317	+1.24	1.82	446	75
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	75
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	74
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	74
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	74