Duque Hebbert — OGILVIE

Duque Hebbert P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%12.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%3.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	14	8	37	157	41	6	2	57%	2.7	17.8%	4.8%	13.0%	1.8%	4.58	3.18	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	14	8	37	157	41	6	2	57%	2.7	17.8%	4.8%	13.0%	1.8%	4.58	3.18	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	14	8	37	157	41	6	2	57%	2.7	26.1%	3.8%	22.3%	1.3%	4.58	2.08	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	7	64	267	50	19	7	32%	2.9	13.4%	7.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.06	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	7	64	267	50	19	7	32%	2.9	13.4%	7.9%	5.5%	3.3%	5.06	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	7	64	267	50	19	7	32%	2.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	2.6%	5.06	3.85	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	63	270	51	20	6	3%	1.9	13.6%	8.0%	5.6%	2.2%	4.86	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	63	270	51	20	6	3%	1.9	13.6%	8.0%	5.6%	2.2%	4.86	4.16	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	1	63	270	51	20	6	3%	1.9	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	2.2%	4.86	3.67	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	22	0	37	166	29	9	7	0%	1.7	12.7%	3.8%	8.9%	4.1%	6.57	4.77	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	22	0	37	166	29	9	7	0%	1.7	12.7%	3.8%	8.9%	4.1%	6.57	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	DET	4	0	5	29	5	2	0	0%	1.2	17.2%	6.9%	10.3%	0.0%	7.20	2.52	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	DET	13	0	21	91	15	3	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	3.3%	13.2%	3.3%	6.53	3.94	—
2026	24	AA RAW	DET	5	0	11	46	9	4	4	0%	2.3	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	8.7%	6.35	7.32	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.0	12.3%	9.2%	3.1%	2.9%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	42	188	32	11	8	—	—	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	4.1%	6.40	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	56	0	58	246	36	22	7	0%	1.0	14.6%	9.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.04	4.99	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	56	0	58	246	39	22	7	0%	1.0	16.0%	9.0%	6.9%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	15	10	3	0%	1.0	14.6%	9.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.04	4.99	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	37	0	39	165	26	15	5	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.0%	6.9%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	269	42	24	8	0%	1.0	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.9%	4.97	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	132	75	25	0%	1.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.9%	4.97	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		91	16	201	860	121	56	24	18%	2.2	14.1%	6.6%	7.6%	2.8%	5.19	4.28	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	16	200	854	121	56	24	18%	2.2	14.1%	6.6%	7.6%	2.8%	5.19	4.28	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Duque Hebbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	12.3%	9.2%	2.9%	—	4.93	15.3%	6.3%	117	-0.28	—	—	—
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	91
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	89
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	89
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	89
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	89
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	88
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	87
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	87
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	87
Alejandro Barraza R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.291	4.64	13.1%	4.7%	93	+0.33	3.27	174	86
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	85
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	85
John Kuchno R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	24	SU	5.44	8.9%	8.7%	3.6%	.247	5.14	10.2%	1.6%	84	-0.30	2.43	162	85
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	24	SU	4.12	9.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.277	4.35	16.2%	6.7%	164	+0.23	4.03	254	85
David Berg R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	84
Gabe Friese R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SU	4.71	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	115	84
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	84
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	84
Ryan Miller R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	23	SU	5.62	11.2%	8.4%	4.4%	.298	5.82	25.5%	11.8%	36	+0.20	4.08	338	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	14.3%	9.1%	1.13	5.06
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43