Darwin Roa — OGILVIE

Darwin Roa P FCL Pirates

Age 19 RHP 5'10" / 188 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%21.7%

BB%20.9%

K-BB%0.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	31.9%	-18.5%	0.0%	2.79	6.01	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	13.3%	31.9%	-18.5%	0.0%	2.79	6.01	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	8	0	10	51	10	13	0	0%	1.2	19.6%	25.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.79	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	19.1%	32.9%	-13.8%	0.0%	2.19	5.65	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	19.1%	32.9%	-13.8%	0.0%	2.19	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PIT	5	5	12	57	16	15	0	100%	2.5	28.1%	26.3%	1.8%	0.0%	2.19	4.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	19	15	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	17.5%	4.7%	2.9%	5.55	5.41	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	17.5%	4.7%	2.9%	5.55	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	17.5%	4.7%	2.9%	5.55	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	22.3%	17.5%	4.7%	2.9%	5.55	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		13	5	22	108	18	35	0	38%	1.7	16.4%	32.4%	-16.0%	0.0%	2.45	5.82	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	45	200	982	161	318	0	38%	1.7	16.4%	32.4%	-16.0%	0.0%	2.45	5.82	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwin Roa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	21.7%	20.9%	3.0%	—	5.41	22.3%	4.7%	20	-0.51	—	—	—
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	85
Ben Peoples R 2019 · 6.28 FIP	18	SW	6.28	21.8%	27.5%	2.8%	.227	4.51	23.0%	9.1%	103	-1.77	3.56	362	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	82
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	81
Miguel Ullola R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP-	4.90	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	.239	4.54	24.8%	7.6%	290	-0.36	3.93	494	81
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	81
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	81
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	79
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	79
Jesus Rivero R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	21.6%	23.3%	1.0%	.254	4.21	21.8%	2.6%	87	-0.54	4.09	146	78
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	76
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	76
Josue Panacual R 2021 · 4.81 FIP	19	SW	4.81	17.5%	15.6%	2.2%	.286	4.41	14.2%	0.8%	91	-0.40	4.41	164	76
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	76
Sunayro Martina R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	19	SP-	4.79	17.6%	21.9%	0.7%	.247	5.46	14.4%	-4.0%	90	+0.67	4.57	118	75
Anthony Cruz R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	16.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.237	4.19	18.2%	5.6%	180	-1.19	3.32	272	75
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	75
Kai Wynyard R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	19	SW	5.35	19.0%	26.2%	1.0%	.375	3.85	18.2%	6.5%	129	-1.50	3.32	257	75