Darwin Roa
P
FCL Pirates
Age 19
RHP
5'10" / 188 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP6
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 8 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 31.9% | -18.5% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 6.01 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 8 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 25.5% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 2.79 | 5.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | DSL Pirates Gold | 8 | 8 | 20 | 91 | 25 | 23 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 19.1% | 32.9% | -13.8% | 0.0% | 1.77 | 5.65 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 26 | 115 | 31 | 25 | 1 | — | — | 26.5% | 22.0% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 2.36 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | PIT | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | PIT | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 8 | 30 | 142 | 24 | 46 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 17.0% | 32.5% | -15.5% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 5.78 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 53 | 200 | 947 | 161 | 308 | 0 | 50% | 1.9 | 17.0% | 32.5% | -15.5% | 0.0% | 2.10 | 5.78 | -0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Darwin Roa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 23.5% | 14.0% | 20 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 80 |
| Carson Rudd R 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 79 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 78 |
| Grant Holman R 2028 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 76 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 76 |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 76 |
| Deretd Parra R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 75 |
| Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.11 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.22 | 255 | 75 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 75 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 75 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 483 | 74 |
| Domingo Pena R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .250 | 5.87 | 11.9% | 2.8% | 43 | +0.88 | 3.34 | 165 | 74 |
| Jose Morban R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 74 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2029 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 73 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 73 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 73 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 73 |
| Accimias Morales R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .362 | 4.99 | 16.8% | -4.2% | 55 | +0.68 | 2.52 | 109 | 72 |
| Juan Mendez R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 72 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .400 | 5.54 | 14.9% | -0.9% | 92 | +1.30 | 4.24 | 123 | 72 |