Anthony Cruz
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 23
RHP
5'11" / 179 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.49
FIP5.49
K%16.9%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%1.9%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 9 | 2 | 21 | 98 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 22% | 2.3 | 16.7% | 16.6% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 5.40 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 9 | 2 | 21 | 98 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 22% | 2.3 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 4.79 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 6 | 43 | 179 | 50 | 17 | 1 | 43% | 3.1 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 0.5% | 3.53 | 3.26 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 14 | 6 | 43 | 179 | 50 | 17 | 1 | 43% | 3.1 | 27.9% | 9.5% | 18.4% | 0.6% | 3.53 | 2.27 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 12 | 3 | 33 | 128 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 25% | 2.8 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 2.18 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 12 | 3 | 33 | 128 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 25% | 2.8 | 29.7% | 7.8% | 21.9% | 1.6% | 2.18 | 2.49 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 103 | 448 | 104 | 53 | 9 | 44% | 4.1 | 17.3% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.63 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 11 | 103 | 448 | 104 | 53 | 9 | 44% | 4.1 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.01 | 3.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 18 | 1 | 45 | 219 | 39 | 30 | 11 | 6% | 2.5 | 13.7% | 15.8% | -2.0% | 6.3% | 8.00 | 7.38 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 44 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.49 | 5.49 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.9% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.49 | 5.49 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 107 | 479 | 83 | 69 | 18 | — | — | 17.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.55 | 6.29 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.9% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.49 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.27 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 51 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.27 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 55 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.71 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 109 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 23 | 245 | 1072 | 184 | 147 | 30 | 29% | 3.1 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.91 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 19 | 200 | 874 | 150 | 120 | 24 | 29% | 3.1 | 17.1% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.91 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.49 | 16.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.11 | 18.6% | 5.5% | 127 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 88 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 85 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 84 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 83 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 81 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 81 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 81 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.13 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 7.57 | 11.0% | -7.2% | 28 | +2.44 | 5.13 | 204 | 80 |
| Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.2% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.16 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 172 | -0.60 | 3.19 | 652 | 80 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 80 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.84 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 4.1% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 79 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 79 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 79 |
| Sam Ryan R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.6% | .328 | 3.76 | 13.7% | 2.9% | 49 | -0.71 | 3.76 | 178 | 79 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 79 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 79 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 78 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 114 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 18.0% | 13.7% | 1.09 | 5.28 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |