Anthony Cruz — OGILVIE

Anthony Cruz P Asheville Tourists

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 179 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%9.8%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	9	2	21	98	24	13	2	16.7%	16.6%	2.9%	4.79	5.40	-0.1
2023	20	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	19.0%	11.9%	0.5%	3.53	3.28	+0.8
2024	21	ROK	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	2.18	3.66	+0.5
2025	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	17.3%	13.9%	2.3%	4.01	4.68	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	2	0	6	25	6	2	2	—	—	—	7.94	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	HOU	14	14	76	322	68	36	9	21.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	+0.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	HOU	—	—	82	347	74	38	11	21.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.91	4.36	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	HOU	14	14	78	330	72	34	9	21.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.56	4.50	+0.5
2028	25	MLB	HOU	14	14	79	334	74	33	9	22.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.39	+0.7
2029	26	MLB	HOU	14	14	79	334	75	32	9	22.5%	9.7%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.7
2030	27	MLB	HOU	14	14	78	331	75	32	9	22.6%	9.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.37	+0.7
2031	28	MLB	HOU	14	14	77	326	74	32	9	22.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.39	4.40	+0.6
2032	29	MLB	HOU	14	14	76	319	72	31	9	22.4%	9.8%	2.9%	4.42	4.44	+0.6
2033	30	MLB	HOU	13	13	73	309	69	31	9	22.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.50	+0.5
2034	31	MLB	HOU	13	13	71	299	66	30	9	22.0%	10.1%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	+0.4
2035	32	MLB	HOU	12	12	68	287	62	29	9	21.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.62	4.67	+0.3
2036	33	MLB	HOU	12	12	65	274	59	28	9	21.4%	10.4%	3.2%	4.71	4.76	+0.2
2037	34	MLB	HOU	11	11	62	260	55	28	9	21.0%	10.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.87	+0.1
2038	35	MLB	HOU	58	—	58	245	51	27	8	20.6%	10.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.00	-0.0
2039	36	MLB	HOU	54	—	54	229	46	25	8	20.2%	11.1%	3.6%	5.05	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			62	22	206	878	160	114	19	18.2%	13.0%	2.1%	3.80	4.38	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			60	21	200	852	155	111	18	18.2%	13.0%	2.1%	3.80	4.38	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.0%	11.2%	2.8%	—	4.42	22.2%	12.3%	236	-0.26	—	—	—
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	94
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.94	18.5%	7.4%	135	-0.43	3.84	213	93
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	93
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	17.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-1.97	2.66	145	92
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	92
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	91
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	91
David Trexler R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	91
Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SW	4.94	18.8%	13.8%	3.1%	.301	3.44	18.6%	10.2%	76	-1.50	3.36	178	90
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	90
Jhondaniel Medina R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	23	SW	4.54	19.3%	13.9%	2.4%	.261	5.27	19.3%	4.4%	35	+0.73	4.38	167	90
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.49	24.9%	14.5%	98	-0.93	2.46	228	90
Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	23	SW	5.24	18.5%	13.5%	3.6%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.49	5.24	107	90
Mike Ruff R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SW	3.97	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.72	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.75	3.97	260	90
Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.36	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.07	4.29	222	90
David Griffin R 2028 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	90
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	89
Matt Lollis R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	89
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.81	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.63	2.36	229	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.4	$2M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+0.3	$2M	-$6M
Totals		$11M		$15M	+$4M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.