Anthony Cruz — OGILVIE

Anthony Cruz P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 179 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%16.9%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	9	2	21	98	24	13	2	22%	2.3	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	2.9%	4.79	5.38	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	9	2	21	98	24	13	2	22%	2.3	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	2.0%	4.79	3.92	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	43%	3.1	19.0%	11.9%	7.1%	0.6%	3.53	3.32	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	43%	3.1	19.0%	11.9%	7.1%	0.6%	3.53	3.32	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	14	6	43	179	50	17	1	43%	3.1	27.9%	9.5%	18.4%	0.6%	3.53	2.27	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.0%	2.18	3.71	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	2.0%	2.18	3.71	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	12	3	33	128	38	10	2	25%	2.8	29.7%	7.8%	21.9%	1.6%	2.18	2.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	17.3%	13.9%	3.4%	2.4%	4.01	4.70	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	17.3%	13.9%	3.4%	2.4%	4.01	4.70	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	103	448	104	53	9	44%	4.1	23.2%	11.8%	11.4%	2.0%	4.01	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	14.5%	16.5%	-2.0%	5.3%	8.88	6.85	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	14.5%	16.5%	-2.0%	5.3%	8.88	6.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	30	3	72	356	67	51	15	10%	2.4	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	4.2%	8.88	5.64	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	5	22	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	15.0%	1.8%	2.9%	5.53	5.53	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	77	378	71	54	16	—	—	18.7%	14.4%	4.3%	4.1%	8.65	6.76	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	91	0	95	402	73	54	11	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.22	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	92	0	96	407	76	51	12	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	2.8%	5.11	5.04	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	92	0	96	407	78	50	12	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	2.8%	5.01	4.98	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	91	0	95	402	77	49	12	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	88	0	92	389	74	48	12	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	3.0%	5.04	5.08	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	88	372	70	47	12	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.21	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	79	0	83	350	64	45	12	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.8%	5.6%	3.4%	5.29	5.39	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	39	0	41	173	31	23	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.5%	4.6%	2.8%	5.29	5.22	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	61	0	64	270	51	34	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	2.8%	5.11	5.04	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	62	40	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	2.8%	5.01	4.98	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	77	0	81	342	65	42	10	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	78	0	82	346	66	43	10	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	3.0%	5.04	5.08	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	76	0	80	338	63	42	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.21	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	72	0	76	321	59	41	11	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.8%	5.6%	3.4%	5.29	5.39	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		477	0	501	2116	398	264	64	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.3%	3.0%	5.11	4.74	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	105	26	0%	1.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.3%	3.0%	5.11	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		90	25	272	1209	205	171	36	28%	3.0	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.08	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	18	200	888	151	125	26	28%	3.0	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.0%	5.06	5.08	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	16.9%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.08	18.6%	5.9%	288	-0.45	—	—	—
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	89
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	83
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	83
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	83
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	82
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	82
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	81
Yohan Ramírez R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	23	SW	4.72	18.2%	14.6%	2.4%	.243	4.16	27.6%	10.7%	172	-0.56	2.80	678	80
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	80
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	79
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	79
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	77
Alejandro Melean R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	22	SW	5.10	17.9%	13.3%	3.3%	.302	6.04	10.4%	-2.3%	18	+0.94	4.77	258	77
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	77
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	77
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	89	18.6%	12.8%	1.15	5.16
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39