Kai Wynyard — OGILVIE

Kai Wynyard P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 176 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%14.9%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%0.7%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	15	5	28	143	40	30	1	33%	1.9	19.0%	26.2%	-7.2%	1.0%	5.40	5.35	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	15	5	28	143	40	30	1	33%	1.9	28.0%	21.0%	7.0%	0.7%	5.40	3.91	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	40	172	51	13	4	0%	2.1	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.27	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	40	172	51	13	4	0%	2.1	29.7%	7.6%	22.1%	2.3%	4.50	2.83	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	24	0	42	169	43	16	1	0%	1.7	18.8%	11.2%	7.7%	0.7%	2.38	3.32	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	24	0	42	169	43	16	1	0%	1.7	18.8%	11.2%	7.7%	0.7%	2.38	3.32	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	24	0	42	169	43	16	1	0%	1.7	25.4%	9.5%	16.0%	0.6%	2.38	2.50	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	0.6%	3.02	3.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	0.6%	3.02	3.97	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	21.2%	12.9%	8.3%	0.9%	3.02	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.5%	3.0%	3.94	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.5%	3.0%	3.94	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	1.9%	3.94	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	37	0	54	236	66	26	14	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	7.7%	5.83	7.18	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	37	0	54	236	66	26	14	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	7.7%	5.83	7.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TEX	35	0	51	226	64	26	14	0%	1.4	28.3%	11.5%	16.8%	6.2%	6.22	5.57	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TEX	2	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.6	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	244	40	32	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	13.0%	3.5%	2.9%	5.36	5.30	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	244	42	31	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.19	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	24	0	25	106	17	14	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.0%	3.5%	2.9%	5.36	5.30	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	28	20	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	46	34	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.8%	4.2%	2.9%	5.28	4.85	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	108	25	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.8%	4.2%	2.9%	5.28	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		150	5	274	1195	220	166	36	3%	1.8	18.4%	13.9%	4.6%	3.0%	4.14	4.93	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	4	200	872	161	121	26	3%	1.8	18.4%	13.9%	4.6%	3.0%	4.14	4.93	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kai Wynyard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	14.9%	14.2%	2.9%	—	5.25	16.9%	4.1%	116	-0.34	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	93
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	90
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	88
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	87
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	87
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	87
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	86
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	86
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	85
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	85
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	85
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	85
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	16.3%	13.3%	1.11	5.39
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48