Kai Wynyard
P
Hub City Spartanburgers
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 176 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.52
FIP5.52
K%14.9%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%1.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 15 | 5 | 28 | 143 | 40 | 30 | 1 | 33% | 1.9 | 19.0% | 26.2% | -7.2% | 1.0% | 5.40 | 5.34 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 15 | 5 | 28 | 143 | 40 | 30 | 1 | 33% | 1.9 | 28.0% | 21.0% | 7.0% | 0.7% | 5.40 | 3.91 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 40 | 172 | 51 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.41 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 40 | 172 | 51 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 2.1 | 29.7% | 7.6% | 22.1% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 0 | 42 | 169 | 43 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 2.38 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 0 | 42 | 169 | 43 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 25.4% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 0.6% | 2.38 | 2.50 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 46 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 15.2% | 14.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 3.02 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 46 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 3.02 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 52 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 15.7% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 59 | 258 | 52 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 3.94 | 4.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 23 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 41 | 19 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.2% | 14.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 7.75 | 8.44 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 36 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.52 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.52 | 5.52 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 91 | 397 | 77 | 52 | 19 | — | — | 19.3% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.35 | 6.60 | -1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.52 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 40 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 42 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 46 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.81 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 107 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 5 | 254 | 1115 | 200 | 156 | 32 | 4% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.95 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 4 | 200 | 879 | 158 | 123 | 25 | 4% | 1.9 | 18.0% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kai Wynyard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.52 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.21 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 116 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 92 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 90 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 90 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 89 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 87 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 87 |
| Rob Huber R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 86 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.21 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.38 | 3.69 | 162 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 86 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 86 |
| Ryan Vanderhei R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.56 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 39 | -1.70 | 3.56 | 130 | 86 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 86 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 85 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 85 |
| Michael Mertz R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 133 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 16.8% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .275 | 6.52 | 18.3% | -1.8% | 34 | +1.64 | 4.42 | 103 | 85 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.47 | 13.2% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .330 | 5.36 | 16.5% | -2.2% | 23 | +0.89 | 4.47 | 132 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 1.10 | 5.34 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |