Jesus Rivero — OGILVIE

Jesus Rivero P Carolina Mudcats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%22.5%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	6	28	119	38	21	2	60%	2.8	21.7%	22.1%	-0.3%	2.5%	2.22	5.42	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	10	6	28	119	38	21	2	60%	2.8	31.9%	17.6%	14.3%	1.7%	2.22	3.56	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	16	5	30	145	46	27	1	31%	1.9	21.6%	23.3%	-1.7%	1.0%	6.90	4.75	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	16	5	30	145	46	27	1	31%	1.9	31.7%	18.6%	13.1%	0.7%	6.90	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	50	209	68	28	2	36%	3.6	22.0%	19.3%	2.7%	0.7%	3.04	4.09	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	50	209	68	28	2	36%	3.6	22.0%	19.3%	2.7%	0.7%	3.04	4.09	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	5	50	209	68	28	2	36%	3.6	32.5%	13.4%	19.1%	1.0%	3.04	2.58	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	21.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.30	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	21.6%	19.1%	2.5%	1.1%	5.59	4.30	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	6	48	216	63	35	2	33%	2.7	29.2%	16.2%	13.0%	0.9%	5.59	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	MIL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.6%	5.9%	2.9%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	42	0	45	188	44	27	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.90	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	18	0	19	80	19	11	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	19	12	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	126	21	0%	1.1	23.1%	14.3%	8.8%	2.8%	5.00	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		58	22	157	689	150	142	8	38%	2.7	21.7%	20.6%	1.2%	1.2%	4.41	4.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	28	200	878	191	180	11	38%	2.7	21.7%	20.6%	1.2%	1.2%	4.41	4.53	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	22.5%	16.6%	2.9%	—	4.90	23.1%	8.8%	45	-0.35	—	—	—
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	79
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	78
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	78
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	77
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	77
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	77
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	77
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	77
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	77
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.7%	248	-0.19	3.67	383	76
Dylan King R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	22	SW	4.43	21.4%	20.5%	1.0%	.233	4.79	27.1%	17.7%	90	+0.36	3.78	121	76
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	22.9%	15.2%	1.10	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99