Jesus Rivero
P
Carolina Mudcats
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%22.5%
BB%16.6%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 10 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 38 | 21 | 2 | 60% | 2.8 | 21.7% | 22.1% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 2.22 | 5.50 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 10 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 38 | 21 | 2 | 60% | 2.8 | 31.9% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 2.22 | 3.56 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 16 | 5 | 30 | 145 | 46 | 27 | 1 | 31% | 1.9 | 21.6% | 23.3% | -1.7% | 1.0% | 6.90 | 4.75 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 16 | 5 | 30 | 145 | 46 | 27 | 1 | 31% | 1.9 | 31.7% | 18.6% | 13.1% | 0.7% | 6.90 | 3.17 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 50 | 209 | 68 | 28 | 2 | 36% | 3.6 | 22.0% | 19.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 3.04 | 4.07 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 50 | 209 | 68 | 28 | 2 | 36% | 3.6 | 32.5% | 13.4% | 19.1% | 1.0% | 3.04 | 2.58 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 6 | 48 | 216 | 63 | 35 | 2 | 33% | 2.7 | 21.6% | 19.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 5.59 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 6 | 48 | 216 | 63 | 35 | 2 | 33% | 2.7 | 29.2% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 0.9% | 5.59 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 116 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 44 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 19 | 81 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.51 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 126 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.51 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 22 | 157 | 689 | 150 | 142 | 8 | 38% | 2.7 | 21.7% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.41 | 4.52 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 28 | 200 | 878 | 191 | 180 | 10 | 38% | 2.7 | 21.7% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.41 | 4.52 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Rivero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.89 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 45 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.04 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 186 | -1.60 | 3.42 | 209 | 80 |
| Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 78 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 22.0% | 17.9% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.09 | 4.09 | 196 | 78 |
| Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.32 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.84 | 25.6% | 5.4% | 81 | -1.48 | 3.21 | 180 | 78 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.48 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 181 | +0.27 | 3.81 | 245 | 78 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 19.8% | 14.6% | 4.0% | .378 | 5.06 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 133 | -0.42 | 3.22 | 201 | 78 |
| Kevin Abel R 2022 · 6.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.25 | 25.2% | 22.4% | 4.4% | .441 | 4.57 | 18.6% | 4.5% | 308 | -1.68 | 4.41 | 428 | 78 |
| Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.38 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 259 | +0.02 | 3.41 | 392 | 77 |
| Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 77 |
| Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.1% | 2.2% | 153 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.91 | 25.2% | 14.5% | 151 | -0.49 | 2.52 | 281 | 76 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.69 | 20.4% | 20.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 3.92 | 20.7% | 12.2% | 15 | -1.77 | 3.92 | 128 | 76 |
| Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.12 | 241 | 76 |
| Dylan King R 2019 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 21.4% | 20.5% | 1.0% | .233 | 5.24 | 27.1% | 17.7% | 90 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 121 | 76 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.25 | 18.3% | 14.1% | 1.7% | .359 | 4.01 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 221 | -0.24 | 3.69 | 355 | 76 |
| Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.15 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.15 | 19.9% | 18.5% | 0.7% | .300 | 3.94 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 220 | -0.21 | 2.66 | 271 | 76 |
| Josh White R 2023 · 5.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.45 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.8% | .244 | 3.08 | 28.3% | 16.7% | 172 | -2.37 | 1.95 | 237 | 76 |
| Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.6% | .328 | 3.76 | 13.7% | 2.9% | 49 | -0.71 | 3.76 | 178 | 76 |
| Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 0.4 | 36 | 22.9% | 15.2% | 1.10 | 5.09 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 1.0 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 1.5 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 1.4 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 1.1 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 1.4 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 2.1 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |