Jason Gilman

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 24 LHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1378ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	19	14	77	3.49	3.41	33.4%	14.1%	—	K 25.0% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.81
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.01	5.01	24.8%	15.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBOS	4	4	26	4.78	4.70	25.1%	13.7%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBOS	6	6	38	4.69	4.65	25.1%	13.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 85%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Caden Grice (age 22) · Jimmy Robbins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%24.8%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	77	326	109	46	8	74%	4.1	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	3.2%	3.49	4.81	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	77	326	109	46	8	74%	4.1	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	3.2%	3.49	4.81	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	77	326	109	46	8	74%	4.1	33.4%	14.1%	19.3%	2.5%	3.49	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.8%	15.6%	9.2%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	60	254	64	35	8	100%	6.0	25.1%	13.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.74	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	57	242	61	32	7	100%	5.7	25.1%	13.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.73	4.69	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	55	231	58	30	7	100%	6.1	25.0%	13.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	219	54	29	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	13.2%	11.6%	3.1%	4.75	4.78	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	48	202	50	27	7	100%	6.0	24.6%	13.4%	11.2%	3.3%	4.85	4.91	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	26	110	27	15	3	100%	6.5	25.1%	13.7%	11.4%	2.9%	4.78	4.70	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	40	21	5	100%	6.3	25.1%	13.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.69	4.65	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	42	177	44	23	5	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	44	186	46	25	6	100%	6.3	24.9%	13.2%	11.6%	3.1%	4.71	4.74	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	42	177	44	24	6	100%	6.0	24.6%	13.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.80	4.86	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	191	808	201	108	25	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.35	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	210	113	26	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		19	14	77	326	82	54	10	74%	4.1	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	3.2%	3.49	4.81	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	36	200	843	211	139	27	74%	4.1	25.0%	16.5%	8.5%	3.2%	3.49	4.81	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 56 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.96 (+1.46)K% 32.8% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.76%	—	×0.740	24.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.180	16.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 22 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.45 (+1.26)K% 35.1% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.11%	—	×0.770	27.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.150	17.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Gilman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	24.8%	15.6%	3.0%	—	4.71	25.1%	11.7%	172	-0.30	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	76
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	76
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	75
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	75
Grant Wolfram L 2021 · 5.44 FIP	24	SP-	5.44	25.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.327	3.92	23.1%	11.0%	176	-1.52	2.36	423	74
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	72
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	72
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	71
John Rooney L 2021 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	25.6%	17.4%	2.9%	.328	4.85	20.0%	9.7%	228	+0.12	3.03	439	71
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	71
Kevin Smith L 2021 · 5.54 FIP	24	SP	5.54	23.8%	16.5%	4.3%	.296	6.20	17.5%	1.3%	48	+0.66	3.26	248	70
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	70
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	24.9%	13.7%	1.19	4.81
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*