Derlin Garcia — OGILVIE

Derlin Garcia P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.5 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%22.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	0.0%	1.86	2.68	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	0.0%	1.86	2.68	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	29.3%	8.0%	21.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	1.7%	3.65	4.17	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	1.7%	3.65	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	1.2%	3.65	3.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	9	9	58	246	57	23	7	100%	6.5	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.28	+0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	9	9	61	258	61	23	7	100%	6.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.18	+0.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	10	10	64	271	66	23	8	100%	6.4	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	2.8%	4.11	4.02	+0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	10	10	67	282	71	23	8	100%	6.7	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.98	3.90	+0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	10	10	68	289	74	23	8	100%	6.8	25.7%	7.9%	17.7%	2.7%	3.88	3.81	+0.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	10	10	69	293	76	23	8	100%	6.9	26.0%	7.8%	18.2%	2.7%	3.80	3.75	+1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	10	10	69	293	77	23	8	100%	6.9	26.2%	7.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	10	10	68	288	76	23	8	100%	6.8	26.2%	7.8%	18.4%	2.7%	3.76	3.77	+0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	—	10	10	66	280	73	22	8	100%	6.6	26.1%	8.0%	18.1%	2.8%	3.81	3.85	+0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	—	9	9	63	267	69	22	8	100%	7.0	25.9%	8.2%	17.6%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+0.7
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	4	4	29	122	28	11	4	100%	7.2	23.1%	9.2%	13.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.28	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	7	7	45	190	45	17	5	100%	6.4	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.18	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	8	8	54	228	56	19	6	100%	6.8	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	2.8%	4.11	4.02	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	9	9	60	253	64	21	7	100%	6.7	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.98	3.90	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	9	9	63	266	68	21	7	100%	7.0	25.7%	7.9%	17.7%	2.7%	3.88	3.81	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	10	10	65	274	71	21	7	100%	6.5	26.0%	7.8%	18.2%	2.7%	3.80	3.75	+0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	10	10	66	279	73	22	8	100%	6.6	26.2%	7.8%	18.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.73	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	10	10	65	274	72	22	8	100%	6.5	26.2%	7.8%	18.4%	2.7%	3.76	3.77	+0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	—	9	9	63	266	69	21	8	100%	7.0	26.1%	8.0%	18.1%	2.8%	3.81	3.85	+0.8
2036	29	MLB CTX	—	9	9	60	253	65	21	8	100%	6.7	25.9%	8.2%	17.6%	3.0%	3.91	3.98	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	569	2403	611	195	67	100%	6.8	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.8%	3.92	3.51	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	215	69	24	100%	6.7	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.8%	3.92	3.51	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		19	11	76	316	51	34	4	58%	4.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	1.3%	3.20	3.82	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	832	134	89	11	58%	4.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	1.3%	3.20	3.82	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derlin Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.6%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.16	23.7%	14.8%	184	-0.25	—	—	—
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	81
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	81
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	80
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	80
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	79
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	79
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	79
Jose Acuna R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	19	SP-	3.33	23.1%	10.3%	1.6%	.242	4.95	18.2%	6.6%	207	+1.62	3.33	397	78
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	78
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	77
Cristian Javier R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	19	SW	3.40	22.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.278	3.75	26.6%	13.2%	250	+0.35	2.69	954	77
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	77
Angel Jimenez R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	19	SP-	3.24	20.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.257	3.41	21.3%	12.4%	99	+0.17	3.24	223	76
Rafael Ohashi R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	19	SP-	4.97	21.1%	9.4%	4.5%	.307	5.57	14.1%	-0.9%	132	+0.60	4.67	203	76
Yoelvin Silven R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP-	3.94	17.7%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	4.89	17.9%	12.6%	88	+0.95	3.94	254	76
Nolan Perry R 2023 · 4.58 FIP	19	SW	4.58	19.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.385	4.07	25.2%	10.2%	129	-0.51	3.62	167	76
Mikell Manzano R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	19	SP-	3.55	23.3%	9.0%	2.3%	.388	4.27	9.9%	1.4%	72	+0.72	2.58	175	76
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	61	25.2%	8.2%	1.08	3.96
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58