Derlin Garcia
P
DSL Brewers Gold
Age 19
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.5 · 2032
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$45M ctrl surplus
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 7 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 29% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.68 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 7 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 29% | 2.8 | 29.3% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 9 | 6 | 43 | 176 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 67% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.92 | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 9 | 6 | 43 | 176 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 67% | 4.7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 1.1% | 3.38 | 2.74 | — |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 59 | 250 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 67 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 72 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.90 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 75 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 77 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 78 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | — | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 77 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 74 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 64 | 271 | 70 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | — | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | — | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | — | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 57 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 74 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 73 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | — | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 71 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | — | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 67 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 76 | 577 | 2437 | 619 | 198 | 68 | 100% | 7.6 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.51 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 26 | 26 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 69 | 24 | 100% | 7.6 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.51 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 8 | 62 | 251 | 44 | 26 | 3 | 50% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 2.90 | 3.55 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 26 | 200 | 810 | 143 | 85 | 9 | 50% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 2.90 | 3.55 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derlin Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 187 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 487 | 82 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 8.04 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +3.57 | 2.62 | 179 | 81 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 391 | 81 |
| Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.08 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | .329 | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 312 | +0.26 | 3.85 | 508 | 80 |
| Cristian Javier R 2016 · 3.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.40 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .278 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 13.2% | 250 | +0.34 | 2.69 | 920 | 79 |
| David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.19 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .267 | 4.74 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 164 | +0.55 | 3.33 | 249 | 78 |
| Nolan Perry R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.57 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .385 | 4.01 | 24.9% | 9.4% | 98 | -0.56 | 3.24 | 136 | 78 |
| Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 77 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.04 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 4.15 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 184 | +0.11 | 3.29 | 246 | 77 |
| Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.82 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.25 | 3.57 | 286 | 77 |
| Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP | 17 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 125 | 77 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 77 |
| Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.1% | 2.2% | 153 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 188 | 77 |
| Jose Acuna R 2022 · 3.34 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.34 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .242 | 4.99 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 207 | +1.65 | 3.34 | 376 | 77 |
| Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 77 |
| Ivan Oviedo R 2022 · 3.76 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.76 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.72 | 20.7% | 5.4% | 67 | +0.96 | 3.60 | 174 | 77 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 76 |
| Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 76 |
| Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.5% | 14.8% | 1.6% | .264 | 5.65 | 16.1% | -2.1% | 40 | +1.71 | 3.94 | 216 | 75 |
| Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3.4 | 61 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 1.08 | 3.96 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 1.6 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 2.5 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Joe Jiménez ('24) | 1.9 | 53 | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.06 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 1.6 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| JT Chargois ('24) | 1.2 | 33 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 0.97 | 3.35 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 1.5 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |