Derlin Garcia

P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.8 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1274ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Brewers G…	7	2	19	1.86	1.76	29.3%	8.0%	—	K 19.9% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.68
2026	19	ROKDSL Brewers G…	12	9	57	3.65	3.03	22.0%	8.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	—	—	0	4.77	4.77	19.3%	10.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	3	3	22	4.63	4.57	20.3%	9.9%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLB—	5	5	34	4.46	4.36	21.6%	9.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRobert Colina (age 20) · Joshua Quezada (age 20) · Luis Cohen (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	0.0%	1.86	2.68	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	0.0%	1.86	2.68	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	7	2	19	75	22	6	0	29%	2.8	29.3%	8.0%	21.3%	0.0%	1.86	1.76	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	1.7%	3.65	4.17	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	15.0%	10.9%	4.1%	1.7%	3.65	4.17	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	12	9	57	241	53	21	3	75%	4.7	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	1.2%	3.65	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	10.5%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	7	7	45	190	39	19	5	100%	6.4	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.63	4.57	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	7	7	46	194	42	18	5	100%	6.6	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.36	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	7	7	47	197	44	17	5	100%	6.7	22.4%	8.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.31	4.21	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	7	7	47	197	45	17	5	100%	6.7	22.9%	8.5%	14.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.12	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	7	7	46	193	45	16	5	100%	6.5	23.3%	8.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.06	+0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	7	7	46	194	46	16	5	100%	6.6	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.04	+0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	7	7	45	190	45	16	5	100%	6.4	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.08	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	3	3	22	93	19	9	3	100%	7.3	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.63	4.57	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	5	5	34	144	31	13	4	100%	6.8	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.46	4.36	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	6	6	39	165	37	14	5	100%	6.5	22.4%	8.7%	13.6%	2.8%	4.31	4.21	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	6	6	42	177	41	15	5	100%	7.0	22.9%	8.5%	14.5%	2.7%	4.20	4.12	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	6	6	42	177	41	15	5	100%	7.0	23.3%	8.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.06	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	6	6	43	182	43	15	5	100%	7.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.07	4.04	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	6	6	43	182	43	15	5	100%	7.2	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.08	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	264	1114	253	97	31	100%	6.6	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.8%	4.23	3.79	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	192	74	23	100%	6.7	22.7%	8.7%	14.0%	2.8%	4.23	3.79	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		19	11	76	316	51	34	4	58%	4.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	1.3%	3.20	3.82	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	832	134	89	11	58%	4.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	1.3%	3.20	3.82	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Brewers Gold · 57 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.17 (+1.14)K% 22.0% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.99%	—	×0.680	14.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.71%	—	×1.250	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Brewers Gold · 19 IPFIP 1.64 → 2.68 (+1.05)K% 29.3% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.680	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.64 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derlin Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.3%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.38	21.4%	12.2%	138	-0.39	—	—	—
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	88
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	86
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	84
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	84
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	83
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	82
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Lorenzo Encarnacion R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP-	4.36	18.9%	10.2%	2.8%	.360	5.38	15.3%	4.3%	125	+1.02	3.54	201	81
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	81
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	80
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	22.2%	8.9%	1.07	4.31
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*