Lorenzo Encarnacion

Lorenzo Encarnacion P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%15.6%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	29	133	29	9	1	0%	1.7	14.8%	8.5%	6.4%	1.1%	5.65	3.54	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	29	133	29	9	1	0%	1.7	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	0.8%	5.65	2.47	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	50	229	64	18	6	58%	4.2	18.9%	10.2%	8.6%	2.8%	5.94	4.36	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	7	50	229	64	18	6	58%	4.2	27.9%	7.9%	20.1%	2.6%	5.94	3.18	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	15	64	300	56	29	10	100%	4.2	13.8%	11.4%	2.4%	4.3%	7.92	5.75	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	15	64	300	56	29	10	100%	4.2	13.8%	11.4%	2.4%	4.3%	7.92	5.75	—
2023	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	15	15	64	300	56	29	10	100%	4.2	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.3%	7.92	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.6%	6.05	5.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.6%	6.05	5.00	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	22.5%	9.1%	13.3%	3.2%	6.05	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	15.6%	11.0%	4.6%	3.2%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	68	287	49	30	9	100%	5.7	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.1%	5.13	5.08	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	68	287	51	30	9	100%	6.2	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.1%	5.03	4.99	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	283	51	29	9	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	65	274	50	29	9	100%	5.9	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.07	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	29	122	21	13	4	100%	5.8	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.1%	5.13	5.08	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	45	190	34	20	6	100%	5.6	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.1%	5.03	4.99	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	52	220	40	23	7	100%	5.8	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	55	232	42	24	8	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	762	136	79	24	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.2%	5.04	4.65	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	151	88	27	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.2%	5.04	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		60	35	203	947	152	99	31	58%	3.4	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.3%	6.55	4.88	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	34	200	931	150	98	31	58%	3.4	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.3%	6.55	4.88	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lorenzo Encarnacion (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	15.6%	11.0%	3.2%	—	5.02	17.7%	7.3%	203	-0.28	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	87
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	82
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	82
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	81
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	81
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	17.3%	10.5%	1.23	5.10
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38