Lorenzo Encarnacion
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 175 lbs
A
peak 0.5 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA5.30
FIP5.30
K%15.6%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 17 | 0 | 29 | 133 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 5.65 | 3.58 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 17 | 0 | 29 | 133 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 0.8% | 5.65 | 2.47 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 50 | 229 | 64 | 18 | 6 | 58% | 4.2 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 5.94 | 4.21 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 7 | 50 | 229 | 64 | 18 | 6 | 58% | 4.2 | 27.9% | 7.9% | 20.1% | 2.6% | 5.94 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 15 | 64 | 300 | 56 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 7.92 | 5.74 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 15 | 15 | 64 | 300 | 56 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 4.2 | 18.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 7.92 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 61 | 285 | 64 | 26 | 9 | 81% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 6.05 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 61 | 285 | 64 | 26 | 9 | 81% | 3.8 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 6.05 | 4.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 44 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 51 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 51 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 40 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 181 | 762 | 136 | 80 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 4.65 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 89 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 35 | 203 | 947 | 152 | 99 | 30 | 58% | 3.4 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 6.55 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 34 | 200 | 931 | 150 | 98 | 29 | 58% | 3.4 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 6.55 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lorenzo Encarnacion (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 15.6% | 11.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.03 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 203 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 88 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 86 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 85 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 83 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 83 |
| Justin Dillon R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 83 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.46 | 14.7% | 10.6% | 4.1% | .330 | 4.19 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 139 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 339 | 82 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 81 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 81 |
| Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 81 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 81 |
| Jake Dunning R 2028 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 80 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 80 |
| Ryan Long R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 15.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .239 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 132 | -0.27 | 4.13 | 405 | 80 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 80 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Matt Solter R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.60 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.94 | 16.9% | 4.3% | 66 | -0.66 | 3.94 | 224 | 80 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2029 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 1.22 | 5.10 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |