Lorenzo Encarnacion

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	20	MIX2 levels	12	7	50	5.94	3.18	27.9%	7.9%	—	K 18.9% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.36
2023	21	AARI	15	15	64	7.92	4.75	18.7%	9.7%	—	K 13.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.75
2025	23	MIX2 levels	16	13	61	6.05	4.20	22.5%	9.1%	—	K 16.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.00
2026	24	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	—	—	0	5.13	5.13	16.7%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBARI	4	4	24	5.03	5.02	17.7%	10.6%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	5	5	32	4.99	5.00	18.1%	10.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Hunter Adkins (age 25) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%16.7%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	29	133	29	9	1	0%	1.7	14.8%	8.5%	6.4%	1.1%	5.65	3.54	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	29	133	29	9	1	0%	1.7	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	0.8%	5.65	2.47	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	7	50	229	64	18	6	58%	4.2	18.9%	10.2%	8.6%	2.8%	5.94	4.36	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	7	50	229	64	18	6	58%	4.2	27.9%	7.9%	20.1%	2.6%	5.94	3.18	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	15	64	300	56	29	10	100%	4.2	13.8%	11.4%	2.4%	4.3%	7.92	5.75	—
2023	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	15	15	64	300	56	29	10	100%	4.2	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.3%	7.92	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.6%	6.05	5.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.6%	6.05	5.00	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	61	285	64	26	9	81%	3.8	22.5%	9.1%	13.3%	3.2%	6.05	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	3.1%	5.13	5.13	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	9	9	57	239	42	25	7	100%	6.3	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.03	5.02	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	51	214	39	23	7	100%	6.3	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.00	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	8	8	47	199	36	21	6	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.7%	7.6%	3.2%	5.01	5.05	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	43	183	33	20	6	100%	6.2	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	3.4%	5.10	5.16	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	4	4	24	101	18	11	3	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.03	5.02	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	32	135	24	14	4	100%	6.4	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.00	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	35	148	27	16	5	100%	5.8	18.2%	10.7%	7.6%	3.2%	5.01	5.05	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	35	148	27	16	5	100%	5.8	18.1%	10.8%	7.3%	3.4%	5.10	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	127	535	97	57	17	100%	6.0	18.0%	10.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.03	4.68	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	90	27	100%	6.0	18.0%	10.7%	7.4%	3.2%	5.03	4.68	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		60	35	203	947	152	99	31	58%	3.4	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.3%	6.55	4.88	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	34	200	931	150	98	31	58%	3.4	16.1%	10.5%	5.6%	3.3%	6.55	4.88	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 45 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.07 (+0.73)K% 24.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.74%	—	×0.740	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×1.180	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.283	×1.300	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 16 IPFIP 5.70 → 6.99 (+1.30)K% 17.6% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.58%	—	×0.770	13.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×1.150	15.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷0.968	×1.250	5.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 5.70 → 6.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 64 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.75 (+1.17)K% 18.7% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.67%	—	×0.740	13.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.67%	—	×1.180	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.003	×1.300	4.32%

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 48 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.36 (+1.32)K% 27.7% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.73%	—	×0.680	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.18%	—	×1.250	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.119	×1.400	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL D-backs 1 · 29 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.54 (+1.01)K% 21.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.80%	—	×0.680	14.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.250	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷0.936	×1.400	1.13%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lorenzo Encarnacion (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	16.7%	10.8%	3.1%	—	5.02	18.0%	7.4%	155	-0.11	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	82
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	82
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	81
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	80
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	80
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	17.7%	10.7%	1.22	5.06
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*