Junior Medina

P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	12	0	19	3.38	4.87	14.3%	12.1%	—	K 9.7% · BB 15.1% · FIP 6.25
2026	19	ROKDSL Orioles O…	12	11	43	6.96	3.24	19.8%	14.2%	—	K 13.5% · BB 17.7% · FIP 4.20
2027PROJ	20	MLBBAL	4	4	21	5.54	5.54	18.0%	16.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBAL	4	4	20	5.25	5.13	19.4%	13.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJhoster Baez (age 19) · Yeury Tatiz (age 20) · Junior Mieses (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%18.0%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	19	91	13	11	2	0%	1.6	9.7%	15.1%	-5.4%	3.7%	3.38	6.25	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	19	91	13	11	2	0%	1.6	9.7%	15.1%	-5.4%	3.7%	3.38	6.25	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	12	0	19	91	13	11	2	0%	1.6	14.3%	12.1%	2.2%	2.2%	3.38	4.87	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	12	11	43	212	42	30	0	92%	3.6	13.5%	17.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	6.96	4.20	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	12	11	43	212	42	30	0	92%	3.6	13.5%	17.7%	-4.2%	0.0%	6.96	4.20	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	12	11	43	212	42	30	0	92%	3.6	19.8%	14.2%	5.7%	0.0%	6.96	3.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BAL	4	4	21	89	16	14	3	100%	5.2	18.0%	16.0%	2.0%	2.8%	5.54	5.54	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	40	170	33	24	5	100%	5.0	19.4%	13.9%	5.5%	2.8%	5.25	5.13	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	20	84	16	12	2	100%	5.0	19.4%	13.9%	5.5%	2.8%	5.25	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	16	12	2	100%	5.0	19.4%	13.9%	5.5%	2.8%	5.25	4.75	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	162	121	20	100%	4.8	19.4%	13.9%	5.5%	2.8%	5.25	4.75	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		24	11	61	303	37	51	3	46%	2.6	12.3%	16.9%	-4.6%	1.1%	5.87	4.82	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	36	200	988	122	167	11	46%	2.6	12.3%	16.9%	-4.6%	1.1%	5.87	4.82	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	18.0%	16.0%	2.8%	—	5.13	19.4%	5.5%	40	-0.41	—	—	—
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	88
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	85
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	84
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	84
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	81
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	81
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.9%	14.6%	1.09	5.35
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*