Julio Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Julio Gonzalez P FCL Mets

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%20.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	4	35	139	30	11	0	33%	2.9	14.7%	9.9%	4.8%	0.0%	2.55	3.11	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	4	35	139	30	11	0	33%	2.9	14.7%	9.9%	4.8%	0.0%	2.55	3.11	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	12	4	35	139	30	11	0	33%	2.9	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	0.0%	2.55	2.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	7	3	18	78	15	8	9	43%	2.6	12.7%	13.3%	-0.6%	16.8%	8.50	12.94	—
YTD	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	7	3	18	78	15	8	9	43%	2.6	12.7%	13.3%	-0.6%	16.8%	8.50	12.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	NYM	6	3	17	75	14	8	9	50%	2.9	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	12.0%	8.83	9.46	—
2026	19	A RAW	NYM	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYM	32	0	33	141	30	13	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.43	+0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYM	15	0	16	68	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	15	6	2	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	73	24	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		19	7	53	217	30	24	13	37%	2.8	14.0%	11.1%	2.8%	6.0%	4.56	6.65	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	26	200	814	114	91	49	37%	2.8	14.0%	11.1%	2.8%	6.0%	4.56	6.65	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.3%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.43	21.1%	11.8%	33	-0.15	—	—	—
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	87
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	86
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	85
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	84
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	83
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	83
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	83
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	83
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	83
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	83
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	82
Layonel Ovalles R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	19	SW	3.57	23.1%	10.2%	2.1%	.333	4.62	17.4%	3.0%	146	+1.05	2.60	227	81
Leury Tejada R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	18	SW	4.03	16.5%	10.1%	1.9%	.286	5.06	17.4%	6.2%	39	+1.03	4.03	183	81
Carlos Espinosa R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	20	SW	3.73	17.0%	11.2%	1.2%	.260	4.52	22.0%	9.8%	177	+0.79	3.73	274	80
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	80
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	80
Carlos Gutierrez R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	15.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.326	3.08	18.3%	6.2%	47	-1.63	3.08	122	80
Michael Dominguez R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	18	SW	3.82	20.8%	13.2%	1.5%	.218	4.69	21.1%	10.6%	110	+0.87	3.82	383	79
Jeral Vizcaino R 2022 · 3.56 FIP	20	SW	3.56	17.5%	11.0%	1.0%	.242	4.12	16.2%	4.7%	101	+0.56	3.56	138	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.8%	9.4%	1.11	4.52
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42