Layonel Ovalles — OGILVIE

Layonel Ovalles P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 216 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%19.4%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	12	6	35	136	34	8	0	50%	2.9	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	2.83	2.60	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	12	6	35	136	34	8	0	50%	2.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	0.0%	2.83	1.84	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	4	47	200	66	17	3	25%	2.9	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.1%	4.05	3.57	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	4	47	200	66	17	3	25%	2.9	33.0%	8.5%	24.5%	1.5%	4.05	2.20	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	94	406	93	41	10	83%	3.9	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.70	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	94	406	93	41	10	83%	3.9	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.70	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	94	406	93	41	10	83%	3.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.5%	4.58	3.81	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.6%	-1.1%	0.9%	4.50	4.46	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.6%	-1.1%	0.9%	4.50	4.46	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	25.1%	14.2%	11.0%	0.5%	4.50	3.02	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	16.7%	0.5%	1.5%	2.17	4.60	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	16.7%	0.5%	1.5%	2.17	4.60	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	22.4%	15.4%	7.1%	0.6%	2.17	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	NYM	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.1%	4.3%	2.8%	5.31	5.31	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	46	195	40	26	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.2%	7.4%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	47	197	42	24	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.75	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	19	0	20	84	17	11	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.2%	7.4%	2.8%	5.06	4.96	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	28	16	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	4.86	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	214	45	27	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.8%	4.94	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	107	24	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.8%	4.94	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		106	30	263	1117	205	145	20	28%	2.5	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	1.8%	3.90	4.18	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	23	200	848	156	110	15	28%	2.5	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	1.8%	3.90	4.18	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Layonel Ovalles (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	19.4%	15.1%	2.8%	—	4.85	20.9%	8.3%	93	-0.46	—	—	—
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	88
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	85
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	85
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	80
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	80
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	80
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	79
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.7%	248	-0.19	3.67	383	79
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	79
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	79
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	79
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	79
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	78
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	38	20.6%	13.0%	1.09	5.02
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64