Layonel Ovalles
P
St. Lucie Mets
+0.1
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 216 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%10.9%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 12 | 6 | 35 | 136 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 17.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 2.83 | 2.60 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 16 | 4 | 47 | 200 | 66 | 17 | 3 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.05 | 3.56 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 24 | 20 | 94 | 406 | 93 | 41 | 10 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 27 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 55 | 31 | 1 | 17.5% | 18.6% | 0.8% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 27 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 17.2% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 2.17 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 21.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 30 | 263 | 1117 | 205 | 145 | 20 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 3.90 | 4.16 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 23 | 200 | 848 | 156 | 110 | 15 | 18.3% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 3.90 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Layonel Ovalles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 21.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 30 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 96 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 93 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 92 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 91 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 91 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 91 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 90 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 89 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 89 |
| Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 89 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 89 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .233 | 3.93 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.07 | 3.84 | 184 | 89 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 89 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 89 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 89 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 88 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 88 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 88 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.