Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 12 | 5 | 37 | 148 | 38 | 13 | 2 | 42% | 3.1 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 0.7% | 1.46 | 3.39 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 12 | 5 | 37 | 148 | 38 | 13 | 2 | 42% | 3.1 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 1.4% | 1.46 | 2.80 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 14 | 4 | 34 | 145 | 34 | 14 | 1 | 29% | 2.4 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 2.38 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 14 | 4 | 34 | 145 | 34 | 14 | 1 | 29% | 2.4 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 0.7% | 2.38 | 2.72 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 2 | 67 | 275 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 8% | 2.6 | 16.4% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.82 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 2 | 67 | 275 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 8% | 2.6 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 2.82 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 8.3% | 16.7% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 8.3% | 16.7% | -8.3% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 5.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 466 | 107 | 43 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 78 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 11 | 140 | 580 | 95 | 66 | 9 | 20% | 2.6 | 16.4% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 2.44 | 4.00 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 16 | 200 | 829 | 136 | 95 | 13 | 20% | 2.6 | 16.4% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 2.44 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeral Vizcaino (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.33 | 22.9% | 13.7% | 124 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 83 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 83 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 82 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 81 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 81 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 81 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 81 |
| Ben Vespi R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | .370 | 4.79 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 39 | +1.53 | 3.26 | 102 | 81 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 80 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 80 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 80 |
| Jake Curtis R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 79 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 79 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 79 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 79 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 41 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 1.15 | 4.37 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |