Carlos Espinosa
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 222 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%22.7%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 11 | 4 | 28 | 112 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 36% | 2.5 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 2.60 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 11 | 4 | 28 | 112 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 36% | 2.5 | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 0.9% | 2.60 | 2.63 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 7 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 26 | 7 | 47% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 7 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 26 | 7 | 47% | 3.8 | 27.9% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 76 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 60 | 259 | 76 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.3% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 3.90 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 5 | 62 | 280 | 83 | 28 | 8 | 14% | 1.7 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 4.33 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 5 | 62 | 280 | 83 | 28 | 8 | 14% | 1.7 | 29.6% | 10.0% | 19.6% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 23 | 0 | 42 | 180 | 51 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 3.61 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 64 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 110 | 464 | 115 | 53 | 15 | — | — | 24.9% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 66 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 127 | 55 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.08 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 86 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 16 | 248 | 1082 | 234 | 132 | 34 | 13% | 2.0 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.55 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 13 | 200 | 871 | 189 | 106 | 28 | 13% | 2.0 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.17 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Espinosa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 23.3% | 13.1% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 88 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 88 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 87 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 86 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 86 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 86 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 86 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 85 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 85 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .250 | 5.82 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.15 | 3.67 | 114 | 85 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 85 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 1.17 | 4.53 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |