Carlos Espinosa — OGILVIE

Carlos Espinosa P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 222 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%22.7%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Orange	11	4	28	112	28	10	1	36%	2.5	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.2%	2.60	3.73	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Orange	11	4	28	112	28	10	1	36%	2.5	25.0%	8.9%	16.1%	0.9%	2.60	2.63	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	57	251	70	26	7	47%	3.8	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	3.7%	4.29	4.97	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	57	251	70	26	7	47%	3.8	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	3.7%	4.29	4.97	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	57	251	70	26	7	47%	3.8	27.9%	10.4%	17.5%	2.8%	4.29	3.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	29.3%	11.6%	17.8%	1.9%	3.90	3.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	5.40	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	5.40	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	29.6%	10.0%	19.6%	2.9%	5.40	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	4.6%	3.54	4.95	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	4.6%	3.54	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	LAA	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	30.8%	10.4%	20.4%	3.8%	3.54	3.90	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	3.0%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	75	315	95	33	12	—	—	30.1%	10.5%	19.7%	3.7%	3.63	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	66	30	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.48	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	67	30	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.48	4.45	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	283	66	29	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	65	274	64	29	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.56	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	29	13	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.48	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	44	20	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.48	4.45	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	51	23	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	52	0	55	232	54	24	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	179	80	23	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.50	4.12	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	88	25	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.50	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		142	17	275	1191	265	142	40	12%	1.9	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.10	4.55	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	12	200	867	193	103	29	12%	1.9	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.10	4.55	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Espinosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.7%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.47	23.3%	13.0%	203	-0.18	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	88
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.65	21.9%	11.5%	86	+0.01	4.42	152	86
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	85
Tyler Joyner R 2019 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	20.7%	9.9%	2.0%	.250	6.38	16.1%	5.2%	37	+2.69	3.69	114	85
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	85
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	23.2%	10.6%	1.17	4.54
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84