Carlos Espinosa

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 222 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	42	0	60	3.90	3.15	29.3%	11.6%	—	K 22.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.29
2025	23	MIX2 levels	36	5	62	5.40	3.46	29.6%	10.0%	—	K 23.0% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.33
2026	24	AALAA	38	1	69	3.54	3.90	30.8%	10.4%	—	K 24.9% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	1	0	1	4.69	4.69	24.3%	11.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBLAA	24	0	25	4.64	4.63	24.4%	10.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	31	0	33	4.64	4.65	24.3%	10.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBarrett Loseke (age 25) · Cody Tucker (age 25) · Garrett Mock (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%24.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Orange	11	4	28	112	28	10	1	36%	2.5	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	1.2%	2.60	3.73	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Orange	11	4	28	112	28	10	1	36%	2.5	25.0%	8.9%	16.1%	0.9%	2.60	2.63	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	57	251	70	26	7	47%	3.8	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	3.7%	4.29	4.97	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	57	251	70	26	7	47%	3.8	27.9%	10.4%	17.5%	2.8%	4.29	3.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.6%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	60	259	76	30	5	0%	1.4	29.3%	11.6%	17.8%	1.9%	3.90	3.15	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	5.40	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	5.40	4.33	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	5	62	280	83	28	8	14%	1.7	29.6%	10.0%	19.6%	2.9%	5.40	3.46	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	4.6%	3.54	4.95	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	24.9%	11.4%	13.5%	4.6%	3.54	4.95	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	38	1	69	289	89	30	11	3%	1.8	30.8%	10.4%	20.4%	3.8%	3.54	3.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	55	0	58	244	59	27	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	49	0	52	219	53	24	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.65	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	46	0	48	203	49	22	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.5%	4.68	4.72	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	42	0	44	186	44	21	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.6%	4.77	4.84	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	24	0	25	106	26	11	4	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	31	0	33	139	34	15	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.65	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	37	17	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.5%	4.68	4.72	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	36	17	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.6%	4.77	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	0	130	551	133	60	19	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.9%	13.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.34	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	92	29	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.9%	13.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		142	17	275	1191	265	142	40	12%	1.9	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.10	4.55	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	12	200	867	193	103	29	12%	1.9	22.3%	11.9%	10.4%	3.3%	4.10	4.55	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 69 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.95 (+1.04)K% 30.8% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.80%	—	×0.810	24.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.38%	—	×1.100	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 61 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.33 (+1.12)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.89%	—	×0.770	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.150	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 46 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.56 (+1.30)K% 30.7% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.73%	—	×0.770	23.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.22%	—	×1.150	12.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.916	×1.250	3.33%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 14 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.26 (+0.55)K% 24.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.810	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.100	14.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 44 IPFIP 4.38 → 5.79 (+1.42)K% 25.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.13%	—	×0.740	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.28%	—	×1.180	13.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.993	×1.300	4.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.38 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 13 IPFIP 0.84 → 2.08 (+1.24)K% 37.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.680	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.250	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.379	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 0.84 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Astros Orange · 28 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.73 (+1.12)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.250	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷1.056	×1.400	1.18%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Espinosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.3%	11.1%	3.4%	—	4.66	24.3%	13.4%	158	-0.03	—	—	—
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	90
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	85
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	85
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	84
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	84
Luis Romero R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SU	4.47	22.0%	11.0%	3.3%	.273	5.89	12.7%	1.6%	128	+1.42	4.00	293	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	83
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	83
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	83
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	82
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	82
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	82
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	82
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	24.2%	11.0%	1.32	4.68
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*