Tony Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Tony Gonzalez P FCL Pirates

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 194 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 142

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%21.2%

BB%19.0%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	13.8%	25.3%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	13.8%	25.3%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	14	0	20	103	31	17	0	0%	1.4	20.9%	19.2%	1.7%	0.0%	8.10	3.77	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	14	0	20	103	31	17	0	0%	1.4	20.9%	19.2%	1.7%	0.0%	8.10	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	PIT	13	0	18	91	28	14	0	0%	1.4	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	7.36	2.45	—
2026	22	A RAW	PIT	1	0	2	12	3	3	0	0%	1.7	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	86	19	14	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.37	5.23	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.37	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	16.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.37	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	140	20	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.0%	6.1%	2.9%	5.37	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		25	0	35	177	32	39	0	0%	1.4	17.9%	21.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.94	4.34	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	1011	181	220	0	0%	1.4	17.9%	21.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.94	4.34	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tony Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	21.2%	19.0%	2.9%	—	5.23	22.1%	6.1%	20	-0.48	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	87
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	87
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	85
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	83
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	82
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	82
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	79
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	79
Felix Cabrera L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	17.9%	18.6%	1.2%	.258	5.43	13.8%	-5.3%	62	+0.81	3.96	132	78
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	78
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	78
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	77
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	77
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	77