Danny Thompson Jr.

Danny Thompson Jr. P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%22.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	28.8%	7.7%	21.2%	1.9%	0.66	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	12	9	47	201	68	24	4	75%	3.9	33.8%	11.9%	21.9%	2.0%	3.80	2.85	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TOR	12	11	53	217	56	16	5	92%	4.4	25.8%	7.4%	18.4%	2.3%	3.06	3.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	101	426	99	37	13	100%	5.6	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	102	431	102	36	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.21	4.17	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	102	431	102	36	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	101	425	100	36	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	98	412	97	35	13	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	93	394	91	35	13	100%	5.8	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	88	370	85	34	13	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	345	78	33	13	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	319	77	29	12	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.9%	4.72	4.75	+0.1
2036	33	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	69	293	69	28	12	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	4.2%	4.89	5.00	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	44	186	43	16	5	100%	5.5	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.9%	4.27	4.23	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	68	287	68	24	8	100%	5.7	23.5%	8.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.21	4.17	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	81	29	10	100%	5.8	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.15	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	86	363	86	31	11	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	87	367	86	32	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	85	359	83	32	12	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	78	31	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	72	30	12	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	72	27	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	3.9%	4.72	4.75	+0.1
2036	33	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	66	27	12	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	4.2%	4.89	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	745	3146	736	278	105	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.07	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	75	28	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		34	21	114	470	109	50	12	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	825	191	88	21	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Thompson Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	22.8%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.18	23.5%	15.0%	305	-0.16	—	—	—
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	78
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	76
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	75
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	75
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	84	23.4%	8.8%	1.27	4.39
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45