Danny Thompson Jr.

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#432ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATOR	10	1	14	0.66	2.73	28.8%	7.7%	—	K 21.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.52
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	20	100	3.41	2.99	29.7%	9.6%	—	K 23.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	1	1	1	4.47	4.47	22.9%	10.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	6	6	33	4.39	4.35	23.2%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	8	8	49	4.34	4.32	23.3%	9.6%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 6.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Casey Legumina (age 24) · Ryan Jennings (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	1.9%	0.66	3.52	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	1	14	52	15	4	1	10%	1.4	28.8%	7.7%	21.2%	1.9%	0.66	2.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.41	3.94	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	100	418	124	40	9	83%	4.2	29.7%	9.6%	20.1%	2.2%	3.41	2.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	320	74	31	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	74	312	73	30	9	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.32	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	302	70	29	9	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	287	66	28	9	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.43	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	63	266	61	26	9	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	63	266	65	25	9	100%	6.3	24.5%	9.4%	15.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.47	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	56	236	57	23	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	48	204	48	21	8	100%	6.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.90	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	33	139	32	14	4	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	49	207	48	20	6	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.32	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	56	236	55	23	7	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	55	23	7	100%	5.7	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.43	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	53	23	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	59	23	8	100%	5.7	24.5%	9.4%	15.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.47	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	52	21	8	100%	6.4	24.1%	9.8%	14.3%	3.6%	4.60	4.68	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	45	19	7	100%	5.6	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.9%	4.78	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	403	1702	400	166	55	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.13	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	82	27	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		34	21	114	470	109	50	12	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	825	191	88	21	62%	3.4	23.2%	10.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.89	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 53 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.88 (+0.76)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.810	20.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.100	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 47 IPFIP 2.85 → 4.00 (+1.16)K% 33.8% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.83%	—	×0.770	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.150	13.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 14 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.52 (+0.82)K% 28.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.85%	—	×0.740	21.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.284	×1.300	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Thompson Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.9%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.34	23.2%	13.5%	221	-0.13	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	86
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	84
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	84
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	79
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	79
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	78
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	63	23.4%	9.8%	1.22	4.46
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*