Alex Wallace — OGILVIE

Alex Wallace P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 22 RHP 6'8" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%20.5%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TB	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.2%	5.29	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	99	416	89	42	12	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.65	4.58	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	101	427	94	40	13	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.4%	12.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.43	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	102	432	97	39	13	100%	5.7	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.41	4.35	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	102	432	98	39	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	101	426	96	38	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	98	413	93	38	13	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	94	395	88	37	13	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	4.51	4.58	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	88	371	81	36	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	82	346	74	35	13	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	48	203	43	20	6	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.0%	11.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.63	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	71	300	66	28	9	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.4%	12.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.48	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	83	350	79	32	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.46	4.40	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	89	376	85	34	11	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.41	4.38	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	87	35	12	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.41	4.41	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	90	380	85	35	12	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	3.2%	4.46	4.50	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	87	367	82	34	12	100%	6.2	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.4%	4.56	4.63	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	82	346	76	34	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.6%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	78	329	71	33	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.0%	11.4%	3.8%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	720	3040	674	284	99	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	4.56	4.20	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	187	79	27	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	4.56	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		25	17	97	434	67	53	18	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	895	139	109	38	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Wallace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	20.5%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.45	22.0%	12.5%	302	-0.37	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	79
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	79
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	78
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	89	22.1%	9.4%	1.21	4.52
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32