Alex Wallace

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'8" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#946ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ATB	25	17	97	5.29	4.49	21.0%	10.4%	—	K 15.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.64
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	—	—	0	5.31	5.31	17.3%	11.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	5	5	30	5.03	4.94	18.9%	10.8%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTB	7	7	43	4.84	4.76	19.8%	10.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsTanner Hall (age 22) · Levi Thomas (age 23) · Noah Skirrow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%17.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	—
2026	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	17	97	434	91	45	14	68%	3.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.2%	5.29	4.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	11.9%	5.4%	3.2%	5.31	5.31	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	71	299	56	32	10	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.2%	5.08	4.99	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	274	54	27	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.81	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	64	269	55	27	8	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.74	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	261	53	26	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.77	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	247	50	25	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.82	4.85	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	54	228	46	23	8	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.4%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	53	225	49	22	8	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.8%	11.9%	3.6%	4.90	4.89	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	30	127	24	14	4	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.03	4.94	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	43	182	36	18	6	100%	6.1	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.84	4.76	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	50	211	43	21	6	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.74	4.69	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	46	22	7	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.72	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	52	220	44	22	7	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.80	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	49	207	41	21	7	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.93	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	49	207	45	20	7	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.84	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	327	1379	280	139	44	100%	5.9	20.3%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.82	4.42	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	85	27	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.82	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		25	17	97	434	67	53	18	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	895	139	109	38	68%	3.9	15.5%	12.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.29	5.64	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 97 IPFIP 4.41 → 5.64 (+1.23)K% 21.0% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.97%	—	×0.740	15.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.37%	—	×1.180	12.24%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Wallace (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	17.3%	11.9%	3.2%	—	4.85	19.7%	9.4%	199	-0.46	—	—	—
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	90
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	90
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	88
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	88
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	87
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	86
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	83
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	83
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	62	19.7%	10.4%	1.27	4.94
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*