Barrett Morgan — OGILVIE

Barrett Morgan P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	16	11	56	223	59	22	1	69%	3.5	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	0.6%	2.25	3.22	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	16	11	56	223	59	22	1	69%	3.5	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	0.6%	2.25	3.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	BOS	13	9	46	187	46	18	1	69%	3.5	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	0.5%	2.74	2.54	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	BOS	3	2	10	36	13	4	0	67%	3.3	36.1%	11.1%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	58	243	57	23	7	100%	5.2	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.35	4.27	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	60	252	61	23	7	100%	5.4	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.13	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	61	258	64	22	7	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	62	262	66	22	7	100%	5.6	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.04	3.98	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	262	66	22	7	100%	6.2	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.99	3.96	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	61	258	65	22	7	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.5%	16.8%	2.9%	3.99	3.99	+0.7
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	5	5	28	118	28	11	3	100%	5.6	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	44	186	45	17	5	100%	5.5	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	51	215	53	19	6	100%	5.7	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.07	3.99	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	58	20	6	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.7%	4.00	3.94	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	61	20	7	100%	5.7	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	61	21	7	100%	5.7	25.4%	8.5%	16.8%	2.8%	3.95	3.95	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	291	1227	306	107	34	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.05	3.62	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	74	23	100%	5.7	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.05	3.62	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		16	11	56	223	44	26	1	69%	3.5	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	0.6%	2.25	3.22	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	39	200	796	157	92	5	69%	3.5	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	0.6%	2.25	3.22	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Barrett Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.7%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.14	24.3%	15.3%	178	-0.34	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	86
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	82
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	58	24.6%	8.9%	1.11	4.15
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93