Barrett Morgan

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1082ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	MIX2 levels	16	11	56	2.25	2.40	26.5%	9.9%	—	K 18.2% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	22	MLBBOS	—	—	0	4.67	4.67	20.3%	10.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBOS	4	4	22	4.49	4.42	21.4%	10.0%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBBOS	6	6	31	4.36	4.28	22.1%	9.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsRyan Atkinson (age 23) · Chad Donato (age 22) · Tanner Hall (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%20.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	56	223	59	22	1	69%	3.5	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	0.7%	2.25	3.38	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	11	56	223	59	22	1	69%	3.5	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	0.7%	2.25	3.38	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	11	56	223	59	22	1	69%	3.5	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	0.4%	2.25	2.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	10.9%	9.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	45	189	40	19	5	100%	5.6	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.46	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	45	189	42	18	5	100%	5.6	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	2.7%	4.40	4.32	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	44	184	41	17	5	100%	6.2	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.7%	4.30	4.24	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	44	185	42	17	5	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.1%	13.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.22	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	43	181	41	17	5	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	22	93	20	9	2	100%	5.5	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.7%	4.49	4.42	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	31	131	29	12	4	100%	5.2	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	2.7%	4.36	4.28	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	33	14	4	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.20	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	37	15	4	100%	6.3	22.8%	9.1%	13.6%	2.7%	4.21	4.18	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	39	165	37	15	4	100%	6.5	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	165	698	156	65	19	100%	5.7	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.29	3.87	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	189	79	23	100%	5.8	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.29	3.87	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		16	11	56	223	41	25	2	69%	3.5	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	0.7%	2.25	3.38	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	39	200	796	145	90	6	69%	3.5	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	0.7%	2.25	3.38	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 46 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.38 (+0.85)K% 24.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.60%	—	×0.740	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.180	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.53%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 10 IPFIP 1.46 → 2.37 (+0.91)K% 36.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.770	27.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Barrett Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.3%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.34	22.0%	12.4%	133	-0.33	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	87
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	82
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	81
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	81
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	80
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	41	22.1%	9.6%	1.07	4.39
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*