Holden deJong

P FCL Orioles

Age 23 LHP ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	14	12	39	6.46	3.25	25.7%	11.2%	—	K 18.1% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	4	4	23	4.99	4.99	20.6%	12.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBAL	3	3	15	4.81	4.74	21.4%	11.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJordan Woods (age 20) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Bailey Horn (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.6%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	39	187	48	21	3	86%	2.8	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	2.1%	6.46	4.48	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	39	187	48	21	3	86%	2.8	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	2.1%	6.46	4.48	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	39	187	48	21	3	86%	2.8	25.7%	11.2%	14.4%	1.6%	6.46	3.25	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	4	4	23	97	20	12	3	100%	5.8	20.6%	12.8%	7.8%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	6	6	36	152	33	17	4	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	15	63	14	7	2	100%	5.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	65	14	7	2	100%	5.1	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	182	91	26	100%	5.6	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		14	12	39	187	34	26	4	86%	2.8	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	2.1%	6.46	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	62	200	959	174	131	21	86%	2.8	18.1%	13.7%	4.4%	2.1%	6.46	4.48	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holden deJong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.6%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.74	21.4%	9.9%	36	-0.25	—	—	—
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	82
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	82
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	81
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	79
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	77
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	76
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	76
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	75
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	75
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	74
Kyle Backhus L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.280	3.49	23.1%	11.6%	153	-0.82	2.78	268	74
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.69	19.9%	9.7%	345	-0.23	3.25	451	74
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	74
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	73
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	72
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.1%	12.0%	1.14	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68